MLB DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Primer: Saturday (7/16)

The All-Star break begins next week, and it’s been an incredible first half of the season. It’s flown by, and it’s wild that we’re so deep already. The good news is that the break is short, and we’ll be back in action next weekend! With that in mind, let’s start by looking at the pitchers for this Saturday slate!

Starting Pitcher Rankings

Starting Pitcher Strategy

There’s one pitcher that I absolutely adore on this card, and then everyone else is questionable. I struggled to pick four pitchers that I wanted to write up, but we’ve found four arms in fantastic spots. With that said, let’s kick things off with the safest pitcher on this slate!

Cash Game Recommendations:

Justin Verlander (HOU) vs. OAK

How can you possibly fade JV? This has been one of the best pitchers ever, and he’s in the middle of a bounceback season after Tommy John surgery. The Hall-of-Famer has a 2.00 ERA and 0.87 WHIP in what’s been a Cy Young caliber season. Those numbers make him an excellent play against anyone, but this Oakland team sits bottom-two in runs scored, OBP, OPS, wOBA, and xwOBA. That’s why JV is a -300 favorite in this sensational spot.

Max Fried (ATL) at WAS

If you want to fade Verlander, Fried is the next best option on the board. This left-hander has been outstanding for months, maintaining a 2.22 ERA and 1.03 WHIP over his last 16 starts. That makes him tough to avoid against Washington, with the Nats ranked 27th in both runs scored and wOBACON. We don’t mind that he’s a -260 favorite in this game, either!

GPP Recommendations:

Logan Gilbert (SEA) at TEX

Gilbert has been one of the biggest surprises in baseball this season, sporting a 2.80 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, and 8.5 K/9 rate. His consistency has been equally as incredible, surrendering four runs or fewer in all 18 of his starts. Two came against Texas, with Gilbert allowing one run across 12.2 innings. It’s no surprise that this Rangers offense ranked 19th in K rate and 26th in OBP.

Cal Quantrill (CLE) vs. DET

Quantrill couldn’t strike out a little league lineup, but he will roll through the Tigers. The Motor City Kitties have the fewest runs in baseball and rank bottom-three in runs scored, OBP, OPS, wOBA, and xwOBA. That’s bad news against a quality start machine like Q, collecting a 3.72 ERA and 1.25 WHIP for his career. We also like that he’s a -170 favorite in this spot too!

Top Lineup Stacks

Seattle Mariners (vs. Spencer Howard)

• Road (Globe Life Field)
• Value: Medium
• Risk: Medium
• Game Type: Both
• Game Total/Moneyline: 9 Runs/SEA -150

The Mariners are the hottest team in baseball, entering this matchup winning 12 straight games. Their offense has also been clicking in that span, averaging over five runs per game. That makes them an excellent option against Spencer Howard, who has an 8.04 ERA and 1.66 WHIP this year. We also like that many of these Mariners bats are cheap, making them one of the best stacks on the board!

Houston Astros (vs. Adrian Martinez)

• Home (Minute Maid Park)
• Value: Low
• Risk: Low
• Game Type: Both
• Game Total/Moneyline: 8 Runs/HOU -300

The Astros rank Top-5 in almost every offensive metric since the opening month, and they will continue that success against this A’s staff. Martinez is toeing the rubber for Oakland here, offering up a 6.52 ERA and 1.50. That’s why the Stros are one of the highest projected offenses on this slate, projected to drop five runs in this fantastic matchup!

Los Angeles Dodgers (vs. Jose Suarez)

• Away (Angel Stadium)
• Value: Low
• Risk: Medium
• Game Type: Both
• Game Total/Moneyline: 8 Runs/LAD -200

The Dodgers are always one of the best stacks out there, and they should slaughter a southpaw like Suarez. The Angels lefty has a 4.79 ERA and 1.52 WHIP this season. He’s been doing that in a weak division, and it’s scary to think how he’ll navigate through the deepest lineup in baseball. LA ranks first in OBP and second in runs scored, and they’ll surely end Suarez’s night early in this one!

Core Studs

• If we’re going to stack the Stros, Altuve needs to be the first player in your lineup. Altuve has been one of the best hitters in baseball for a month now, accruing a .440 OBP, .556 SLG, and .996 OPS over his last 21 games. He also has five steals in that span ad should do damage against a putrid pitcher like Martinez.
• Mookie is one of the frontrunners for NL MVP, and he’s going to be tough to fade atop the best lineup in baseball. He’s been crushing in the leadoff spot for LA, totaling a .285 AVG, .355 OBP, .596 SLG, and .941 OPS over his last 63 games. We also don’t mind that he has the platoon advantage against a guy like Suarez.
• Manny is also one of the frontrunners for NL MVP, maintaining a .381 OBP and .907 OPS this year. He’s also presented an elite power-speed combo and has obliterated left-handers throughout his career. That’s bad news for Tyler Gilbert, who’s got a 5.33 ERA.
• Schwarber has been swatting homers nearly every game, knocking out 10 dingers over his last 20 games. He’s been an elite on-base option for longer than that, generating a .350 OBP and .913 OPS over the last two months. Kyle has clobbered righties, too, registering a .900 OPS against them since 2020!
• Winker struggled through the first two months of the season, but he’s been rolling recently. Jesse has a .310 AVG, .394 OBP, .586 SLG, and .980 OPS over his last 16 games. He’s also got a .389 OBP, .522 SLG, and .911 OPS against righties since 2020. That makes him an easy play against a pitcher with an ERA north of 8.00.

Value Plays/Punts

• Santana looked dead in the water in Kansas City, but a move to Seattle has done the former All-Star wonders. The switch-hitter has a .407 OBP, .529 SLG, and .937 OPS over his last 20 games. If we’re stacking Seattle, Santana needs to be one of your guys at this affordable price tag.
• Voit has been inconsistent at times this season, but we’re talking about a guy who’s got a .840 career OPS. That alone makes him an intriguing option in this price range, especially since he gets the platoon advantage against a lackluster lefty.
• The Franimal is always one of the league leaders in every hard-hit metric, and the results are finally starting to come around. The massive outfielder has a .250 AVG, .500 SLG, and .750 OPS over his last 15 games. That’s all you can ask for from a player in this price range, and we expect him to get better as the season progresses.
• Ozuna and Reyes are two of the best mashers in baseball, and they’re great buy-lows in season-long and DFS formats. These two will inevitably start raking, and it could begin here against Paolo Espino. The Nats righty has a 7.50 ERA and 1.67 WHIP over his last three starts.
• We’re never quite sure if Carpenter will find his way into the lineup, but he’s an elite option when he does. The former All-Star has a .451 OBP, .868 SLG, and 1.319 OPS in what’s been an unbelievable year. That makes it hard to understand why he’s not in the lineup every day, but he should be against a righty who’s allowed 13 runs over his last two starts.

Hitter Strategy

All of this value has me excited! It will be a breeze to fill out lineups today because many of these punt hitters are way too cheap. You first need to use Verlander and then pair him with two of these value bats. It’s your choice on which route you want to go, but that’s the safest way to start your lineup construction!

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Whether you’re new to fantasy baseball or a seasoned pro, our Fantasy Baseball 101: Strategy Tips & Advice page is for you. You can get started with our Sabermetrics Glossary or head to a more advanced strategy – like Maximizing Your Potential in Multi-Lineup Contests – to learn more.

Joel Bartilotta is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Joel, check out his archive and follow him @Bartilottajoel.