The Monday Independence Day slate is seven games on DraftKings and FanDuel. However, the contests included are different. The main slate begins at 6:10 pm ET on FD with the Giants at Diamondbacks. However, it excludes the second game of a doubleheader between the Guardians and Tigers. At DK, the main slate starts at 6:40 pm ET.
Monday's Starting Pitcher Strategy
There's a different headliner pitcher for each DFS provider. But, of course, that's because one of them is pitching in a game only available on FD's main slate. However, the second-best option is an excellent headliner at a bargain salary on DK. A considerable betting favorite and a smaller fave in a hitter-friendly park are also stellar options tonight.
The Monday Independence Day slate is seven games on DraftKings and FanDuel. However, the contests included are different. The main slate begins at 6:10 pm ET on FD with the Giants at Diamondbacks. However, it excludes the second game of a doubleheader between the Guardians and Tigers. At DK, the main slate starts at 6:40 pm ET.
Monday's Starting Pitcher Strategy
There's a different headliner pitcher for each DFS provider. But, of course, that's because one of them is pitching in a game only available on FD's main slate. However, the second-best option is an excellent headliner at a bargain salary on DK. A considerable betting favorite and a smaller fave in a hitter-friendly park are also stellar options tonight.
Cash Game Recommendation:
Carlos Rodon (SF) at ARI
Rodon is having an electrifying season for the Giants. According to FanGraphs, in 15 starts totaling 86 innings, he's had a 2.62 ERA, 2.77 xERA, 1.09 WHIP, 30.3 K% and 30.2 CSW%. In addition, he's been exceptionally consistent, allowing three runs or less in 14 starts, and holding opponents to two runs or less 13 times.
Thankfully, tonight's matchup is perfect for another excellent start. The Diamondbacks are 28th in wRC+ (84) against southpaws this year. Further, they've been in a funk, ranking 23rd in wRC+ (91) the previous 14 days. So, Rodon is in a high-floor and ceiling selection.
Julio Urias (LAD) vs. COL
Urias has been on fire. In his last five starts spanning 28.2 innings, he's spun a 2.20 ERA, 3.10 SIERA, 0.87 WHIP, 30.6 K% and 31.1 CSW%. Like Rodon, he's in a smash spot tonight.
The Rockies are visiting the Dodgers tonight, and they've been a trainwreck on the road. Colorado is tied for 25th in wOBA (.283) in road games this year. As a result, Urias shouldn't have any trouble carving them up. Finally, according to Betting Pros, the Dodgers are -295.
Alek Manoah (TOR) at OAK
Manoah is also a massive betting favorite. The Blue Jays are -240. However, the game's total is even better for Manoah than Urias, at 7.0 runs instead of 8.5 runs. Further, Toronto's talented youngster's matchup is dreamy. The A's are 29th in wRC+ (74) against righties, with an exploitable 23.9 K%.
Of course, Manoah isn't only a matchup-driven suggestion. He's also earned his spot in this space by pitching at a high level. In 15 starts spanning 94.2 innings, Manoah has had a 2.09 ERA, 2.79 xERA, 0.96 WHIP, 5.1 BB%, 22.7 K% and 27.8 CSW%. Frankly, he's pitched nearly identically to Urias in 13 more innings, despite pitching in the same number of games. Yet, the salary discount for spinning down to Urias influences the difference for tonight's rankings. Regardless, Manoah is also an outstanding selection.
GPP Recommendations:
Taijuan Walker (NYM) at CIN
Walker is the riskiest option among tonight's top pitchers. However, his 2.72 ERA and 3.83 xERA have been nothing to sneeze at. Unfortunately, Great American Ball Park is a treacherous venue for pitchers, sporting the third-highest park factor for runs (1.162) and highest mark for homers (1.352).
Thankfully, Walker's 48.9 GB% could help him avoid damaging homers. Additionally, the matchup is superb. The Reds are 27th in wRC+ (85) against righties this season. Finally, the Mets are -165. Thus, Walker is a worthwhile gamble in GPPs.
Top Lineup Stacks
The Blue Jays have a matchup with a lucky pitcher tonight. Cole Irvin's 3.58 ERA in 13 starts has been in stark contrast to his 5.40 xERA and 4.34 xFIP. The lefty is due for a blowup, and the Blue Jays can deliver the explosive offense. Toronto is tied for second in wRC+ (121) against southpaws this year.
- Home (Truist Park)
- Value: Low
- Risk: Low
- Game Type: Both
- Game Total/Moneyline: 9.0 Runs/ATL -172
The Braves are another ERA-estimator-driven suggestion. Dakota Hudson's 3.83 ERA has been significantly out of whack with his 4.90 xERA and 4.70 xFIP. Hudson's remarkably worked around below-average control and a lack of strikeouts, evidenced by his 10.8 BB% and 13.3 K%. The Braves have been a mid-pack offense against righties, but their core issue has been a 25.3 K% against them. Since Hudson struggles to strike out hitters, the Braves are in a spot to muscle up. Atlanta is fourth in ISO (.187) against righties this year. So, it's easy to understand why the Braves have a tasty implied total tonight.
- Bo Bichette has excelled with the platoon advantage in his career, amassing a .381 OBP, .225 ISO and 150 wRC+ versus lefties.
- Alejandro Kirk has also pummeled lefties, owning a .364 OBP, .213 ISO and 137 wRC+ since debuting in 2020.
- Austin Riley's power is tantalizing against a pitch-to-contact righty. Since last year, he's had a .242 ISO against righties.
- Since 2019, Teoscar Hernandez has been Toronto's most accomplished lefty-killer, hammering them for a .316 ISO and 157 wRC+.
- Sadly, Jose Miranda didn't reach base yesterday. Still, in his previous 101 plate appearances, he had a .356 OBP, .216 ISO and 158 wRC+. The rookie has settled in nicely at the big-league level.
- In his first 55 plate appearances for the Twins since being recalled from the minors on June 17, Alex Kirilloff had a 105 wRC+ and 18.2 K%. He'll enjoy more eye-catching results if he keeps his strikeouts in check and continues to scald the ball. Kirilloff had a blistering 92.8 mph exit velocity and 55.8 HardHit% in the 55-plate appearance stretch.
Monday's Hitter Strategy
The Blue Jays and Braves are the focal points of DFS offenses tonight. However, Miranda and Kirilloff are attractive value plays to mix in, too.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.