Only one of Friday’s games isn’t included on the DFS main slate. Thus, a whopping 14 games and 28 teams are playing, creating a massive player pool to sift through. The beauty of an enormous slate is the opportunity to unearth hidden gems and less concern for chalk.
Friday's Starting Pitcher Strategy
The primary pitching targets aren't flawless. However, they have high ceilings and salaries conducive to spending top dollar on offense. Thus, the goal is to chase the value the mid-tier and upper-mid-tier hurlers provide.
Only one of Friday’s games isn’t included on the DFS main slate. Thus, a whopping 14 games and 28 teams are playing, creating a massive player pool to sift through. The beauty of an enormous slate is the opportunity to unearth hidden gems and less concern for chalk.
Friday's Starting Pitcher Strategy
The primary pitching targets aren't flawless. However, they have high ceilings and salaries conducive to spending top dollar on offense. Thus, the goal is to chase the value the mid-tier and upper-mid-tier hurlers provide.
Cash Game Recommendations:
Charlie Morton (ATL) vs. WSH
Morton has been white-hot. According to FanGraphs, in his last five starts totaling 32.2 innings, he's had a 2.20 ERA, 2.10 SIERA, 0.77 WHIP, 4.8 BB%, 37.9 K% and 32.4 CSW%. Essentially, Morton has been pitching like an elite reliever over a starter's workload.
The matchup is decent tonight. The Nationals are 19th in wRC+ (97) against righties in 2022. So, they're a slightly below-average offense. Finally, the Braves are -275, per Betting Pros. The betting info pushes Morton to the top of the heap in cash games. Though, Morton is also an awesome tournament pick.
Zac Gallen (ARI) vs. COL
Gallen has bounced back from a mediocre 2021. In 15 starts spanning 82 innings, he's had a rock-solid 3.40 ERA, 3.57 xERA, 1.05 WHIP, 6.8 BB% and 22.8 K%. Gallen's numbers won't knock your socks off.
Still, they're good enough for suggesting Gallen in a plus matchup. The Rockies stink on the road. They're tied for 25th in wOBA (.280) in road contests. Additionally, the Diamondbacks are -155, and the game's total is 8.0 runs. Therefore, Gallen is a relatively safe option, playing well as an SP2 in cash games on DraftKings.
GPP Recommendations:
Lucas Giolito (CWS) vs. DET
Sadly, Giolito has been up and down this season. He's had a 4.90 ERA and 4.71 xERA, but his 3.70 xFIP and 3.64 SIERA have been markedly better. Giolito has also had a fantasy-friendly 27.3 K% and 30.3 CSW%.
The 27-year-old is coming off of back-to-back quality starts, allowing only three runs on nine hits, three walks and 13 strikeouts in 12 innings. So, he's worth a dart in GPPs against Detroit's horrendous offense. The Tigers are tied for dead last in wRC+ (72) against righties. They've also struck out at an exploitable 24.0% rate.
Aaron Ashby (MIL) vs. PIT
Ashby is a dream boat for gamers who love underlying numbers. In his last six starts lasting 30.1 innings, he's had an ugly 5.64 ERA. However, he's also had a 2.51 xFIP, 2.89 SIERA, 7.3 BB%, 28.5 K% and 35.3 CSW%.
Unfortunately, Ashby has been crushed by a 1.78 HR/9 and .383 BABIP. It's unlikely he'll continue to have homer and BABIP misfortune. Additionally, Ashby has a GPP-friendly matchup against Pittsburgh's strikeout-happy lineup. The Buccos have had a 25.7 K% against lefties. Finally, while Ashby might face a pitch limit after throwing only 62 pitches in his last start, it shouldn't be too restrictive, and he has enough strikeout potential to pay off in GPPs.
Top Lineup Stacks
The Braves have a good matchup tonight. Erick Fedde has had a yawn-inducing 4.29 ERA that's a pinch worse than his 4.24 xERA and better than his 4.52 xFIP. The 29-year-old righty has a below-average strikeout rate (19.0 K%), and his 10.8 BB% is higher than the league average. As a result, he's a bad bet to succeed against the Braves. Atlanta has enjoyed home cooking this year, evidenced by ranking fourth in wOBA (.332) in home games.
- Road (T-Mobile Park)
- Value: Low
- Risk: Medium
- Game Type: GPP
- Game Total/Moneyline: Unlisted
George Kirby isn't listed as the starter yet, but he lines up for this start and is projected to get the ball by Roster Resource and DK. The rookie righty has acquitted himself well in the majors, owning a 3.75 ERA which is supported mainly by his underlying stats and ERA estimators. However, a look under the hood creates a reason for optimism about Toronto's offensive outlook tonight. Namely, Kirby has been crushed by righties for a .586 SLG and .393 wOBA. The Blue Jays lineup is stuffed with righties. In fact, the projected starting lineup includes righties first through ninth in the order.
- Road (Fenway Park)
- Value: Low
- Risk: Low
- Game Type: Both
- Game Total/Moneyline: Unlisted
Boston's starter is TBD, but it might be Connor Seabold. The rookie righty has pitched well in the upper minors, but he's been greeted rudely in the bigs. In only three starts totaling 11.2 innings, he's had a 7.71 ERA. Seabold has also coughed up four homers. It's a small sample, but the youngster's likely not ready for an assignment against the Bronx Bombers. The Yankees are tied for second in wRC+ (117) against righties and should smash tonight.
- Matt Olson has enjoyed the platoon advantage in his home digs this year. In 122 plate appearances against righties at home, he's hit five homers with a .377 OBP, .238 ISO and 142 wRC+.
- Ronald Acuna has had a .367 OBP and 122 wRC+ this year. Unfortunately, his power has been down, resulting in only seven homers and a .154 ISO. However, Acuna has offset that with his wheels, stealing 17 bases.
- Austin Riley is great in righty-righty matchups. Since last year, he's torched them for a .245 ISO and 139 wRC+.
- Since returning to The Show, Alex Kirilloff has hit three homers with a .227 ISO and 137 wRC+ in 71 plate appearances.
- Keston Hiura isn't assured of a start tonight. However, he's an appealing punt for power if he does play. Hiura has belted seven bombs in 70 plate appearances against righties this year, and he's had a .266 ISO versus them in his career.
- Santiago Espinal is a much more attractive option at FanDuel than DK. He's essentially a league-average hitter, which is plenty of value at his low salary.
Friday's Hitter Strategy
The Braves and Yankees are the most exciting offenses to pillage for players tonight. However, the Blue Jays are a high-upside GPP pick, too.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.