After a light slate in return from the All-Star break on Thursday, Friday is bringing the meat. There are 13 games on tonight’s main slate at DraftKings and FanDuel. The fun begins at 7:05 pm ET. Tonight’s picks include the standard four pitcher selections and three stacks. However, there are only two core studs. So instead, there are four excellent values/punts.
Friday's Starting Pitcher Strategy
A few aces are getting the ball tonight. However, they are narrowed down to the top cash and GPP option on the table above. The final two highlighted pitchers are superb GPP picks on FD, with one earning SP2 honors in cash games on DK.
After a light slate in return from the All-Star break on Thursday, Friday is bringing the meat. There are 13 games on tonight’s main slate at DraftKings and FanDuel. The fun begins at 7:05 pm ET. Tonight’s picks include the standard four pitcher selections and three stacks. However, there are only two core studs. So instead, there are four excellent values/punts.
Friday's Starting Pitcher Strategy
A few aces are getting the ball tonight. However, they are narrowed down to the top cash and GPP option on the table above. The final two highlighted pitchers are superb GPP picks on FD, with one earning SP2 honors in cash games on DK.
Cash Game Recommendations:
Corbin Burnes (MIL) vs. COL
Burnes has had a great follow-up to his 2021 NL Cy Young Award campaign. According to FanGraphs, in 18 starts spanning 113.2 innings, he'd had a 2.14 ERA, 2.68 xERA, 0.90 WHIP, 6.6 BB%, 32.6 K% and 33,1 CSW%. The righty should get his second half off on the right foot.
The Rockies are a dreamy matchup in Milwaukee. Predictably, the Rockies have struggled on the road this season. Colorado is tied for 26th in wOBA (.281) in road contests. Thus, Burnes should carve them up tonight.
Braxton Garrett (MIA) at PIT
Garrett closed the first half with his best start of the year, holding the Pirates scoreless with 11 strikeouts in six innings. The lefty will open the second half against the Buccos. Obviously, it's unwise to put too much weight on one start.
Thankfully, the Pirates are a measurably good matchup. They are 28th in wRC+ (85) against lefties, owning a sky-high 26.0 K% against them. As a result, Garrett has a great chance to shine against Pittsburgh for a second straight turn.
GPP Recommendations:
Shohei Ohtani (LAA) at ATL
Ohtani has been an unreal talent, but lately, his work on the mound has been astounding. He's won his previous six starts, recording a 0.45 ERA, 2.03 xFIP, 0.78 WHIP, 38.7 K% and 34.9 CSW% in 39.2 innings. Ohtani allowed precisely one earned run in his first and last start in the cited six-start stretch, allowing zero earned runs in the four starts between the bookend turns. Amazing.
The Braves have been a top-10 offense against righties. So, he doesn't face a pushover tonight. Fortunately, they enhance his upside, striking out at a 25.0% clip against right-handed pitchers in 2022. As a result, Ohtani is a tantalizing GPP pick at DK and FD.
Charlie Morton (ATL) vs. LAA
Morton hasn't been Ohtani-caliber, but he's a nifty GPP pick in a probable pitcher's duel. In his last five starts totaling 31.2 innings, he's had a 3.13 ERA, 3.00 xFIP, 1.01 WHIP, 31.5 K% and 29.8 CSW%.
While Morton has been hot, the Angels have been decidedly not. Over the last 30 days, the Angels have been in the basement in wRC+ (73). They've also had a jaw-dropping 29.0 K% during that time. Somehow, it gets better. Morton will also avoid Mike Trout tonight while he's still on the Injured List. Therefore, Morton's ceiling is cathedral high tonight.
Top Lineup Stacks
Marco Gonzales has been a wizard throughout his career, defying his ERA estimators. Nonetheless, the crafty lefty's strikeout rate has cratered, and his control hasn't been as sharp. Eventually, the combination will catch up to him. So, why not tonight? Gonzales's 3.50 ERA has been in stark contrast to his 4.74 xERA and 4.92 xFIP, and the Astros are talented enough to punish him. The Astros have had a 107 wRC+ against southpaws this year.
- Home (American Family Field)
- Value: Medium
- Risk: Medium(DK)/High(FD)
- Game Type: Both
- Game Total/Moneyline: 7.0 Runs/MIL -260
The Brewers have been a formidable foe at home this year, ranking 10th in wOBA (.322). However, they also have a dreamy matchup tonight. Antonio Senzatela hasn't just been an unfortunate victim of Coors Field. Instead, he's had a 6.86 ERA on the road this year. In addition, he's had a 5.19 ERA and allowed a .341 wOBA in 288 innings on the road in his career. As a result, the Beer Makers should tee off on the below-average righty tonight.
- Road (Dodger Stadium)
- Value: High
- Risk: High
- Game Type: GPP
- Game Total/Moneyline: Unlisted
Tyler Anderson is toeing the slab for the Dodgers tonight. The veteran southpaw has spun a 2.96 ERA and 3.10 xERA in 97.1 innings. Still, Anderson's recent work has had some blemishes. In his previous five starts, he's had a 3.26 ERA. Yet, Anderson's 4.43 xFIP hasn't been as impressive. If Anderson pitches to his recent ERA estimators, San Francisco can touch him up. The Giants are sixth in wRC+ (118) against lefties this year. Thus, they're an enticing GPP stack. They're also salary-cap friendly.
- Jose Altuve is having a fantastic season. In 331 plate appearances, he's had a .363 OBP, .236 ISO, 151 wRC+, 17 bombs and eight stolen bases.
- Yordan Alvarez didn't skip a beat in returning from the IL yesterday, mashing his 27th tater of 2022. Alvarez has had a .357 OBP, .408 OBP and 200 RC+ through 321 plate appearances this season. Finally, he excels against fellow lefties.
- Rowdy Tellez is an excellent power source in the bargain bin. Since last year, he's had a .224 ISO against right-handed pitchers.
- Evan Longoria is a lefty-killer. Since 2019, he's had a .378 OBP, .222 ISO and 139 wRC+ against southpaws.
- Darin Ruf has been better than Longo against lefties. Since returning from the KBO in 2020, he's had a .384 OBP, .288 ISO and 156 wRC+ against them.
- Nick Castellanos is a steal on FD. Since 2019, he's roughed up lefties for a .347 OBP, .215 ISO and 128 wRC+.
Friday's Hitter Strategy
The Astros are the most desirable offense to stack tonight. They have a mix of studs and value options. However, the Brewers and Giants are also great sources of offensive options.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
