The Friday night main slate features a baker’s dozen contests on DraftKings and FanDuel. There are a few high-end hurlers. However, a handful of offenses have sky-high upside with matching salaries. Fortunately, there are some mid-tier hurlers and value hitters to make everything work.
Friday's Starting Pitcher Strategy
A veteran lefty showing no signs of aging is the premier pitcher on tonight's slate. However, a young righty facing a depleted lineup is also a stellar selection. Beyond the top two, a pair of riskier pitchers are GPP options.
The Friday night main slate features a baker’s dozen contests on DraftKings and FanDuel. There are a few high-end hurlers. However, a handful of offenses have sky-high upside with matching salaries. Fortunately, there are some mid-tier hurlers and value hitters to make everything work.
Friday's Starting Pitcher Strategy
A veteran lefty showing no signs of aging is the premier pitcher on tonight's slate. However, a young righty facing a depleted lineup is also a stellar selection. Beyond the top two, a pair of riskier pitchers are GPP options.
Cash Game Recommendations:
Clayton Kershaw (LAD) at LAA
Kershaw is having a vintage campaign in his age-34 season. According to FanGraphs, in 11 starts totaling 63.2 innings, he's had a 2.40 ERA, 2.39 xERA, 1.01 WHIP, 4.8 BB%, 27.6 K% and 30.1 CSW%. As if his excellence hasn't been grounds enough for using him tonight, a matchup with the Angels makes him a slam-dunk pick.
The Angels are 24th in wRC+ (92) against southpaws and going down via strike three at a 24.8% rate. Kershaw should toy with the Angels tonight. Finally, according to Betting Pros, the Dodgers are -216, and the game's total is a non-threatening 8.0 runs.
Alek Manoah (TOR) vs. KC
The Blue Jays wasted a golden opportunity against the short-handed Royals last night. Still, they're -355 tonight. Many of the Royals starters aren't playing in this series because they're unvaccinated, removing Whit Merrifield, Andrew Benintendi, MJ Melendez and Hunter Dozier from the fold.
So, Manoah is facing a borderline Triple-A lineup tonight. The 24-year-old righty has had a 2.34 ERA and 2.87 xERA in 17 starts spanning 107.2 innings. Thus, he's a great bet to overwhelm a lineup of non-regulars. It's a toss-up for the top cash pick between Kershaw and Manoah at FD. Fortunately, they can be used together at DK.
GPP Recommendations:
Zach Plesac (CLE) vs. DET
Plesac struggled in 2021 and began this year in a similar form. However, he's cranked it up lately. Plesac has pitched precisely six innings in seven of his last eight starts, allowing four runs or less in each and no more than two runs six times.
Additionally, the matchup is excellent. Detroit's road wOBA (.261) has been dead last, with a 25.0 K% to boot. The Tigers are also dead last in wRC+ (70) against righties. Therefore, it's literally the ideal matchup for Plesac. The Guardians are -190, bolstering Plesac's case for GPP usage.
Tyler Wells (BAL) at TB
Wells won't be everyone's cup of tea tonight. In 17 starts totaling 79.2 innings, he's had a 3.28 ERA. However, his ERA estimators disagree on his ERA's legitimacy. For instance, Wells' 3.39 xERA validates his ERA. Yet, his 4.70 xFIP and 4.64 SIERA hint at ugly regression on the horizon.
Wells has struck out only 16.6% of the batters he's faced this year, but he's also had a rock-solid 6.0 BB%. Moreover, Wells might have some untapped strikeout upside, racking up punchouts at a high rate in the minors and in relief last year. He's also a darling of Eno Sarris's Pitching+ model.
Perhaps, Wells can strike out a few more hitters than usual tonight. Tampa Bay's 24.7 K% against righties is the fourth-highest mark. Wells isn't a good target on FD, but he's a nifty value pick on DK.
Top Lineup Stacks
Patrick Corbin "held" the Braves to four runs in his most recent outing. Though, he allowed 10 baserunners. The lefty's last start snapped back-to-back one-run starts, allowing only two runs in 15 innings. Perhaps, Corbin has figured something out. The overriding body of work is more damning. Thus, gamers should gleefully stack against him. The Braves are tied for sixth in wRC+ (116) and third in ISO (.199) against lefties. They can punish even high-quality lefties, and a brief resurgence from Corbin doesn't put him in the high-quality category yet.
- Home (Coors Field)
- Value: Low
- Risk: Low
- Game Type: Both
- Game Total/Moneyline: 11.0 Runs/COL -140
The Rockies are home at Coors Field. Predictably, they've excelled in their hitter-friendly confines. They have the highest home wOBA (.350). Jose Quintana has pitched his best since 2016, owning a 3.59 ERA and 3.75 xFIP in 17 starts. Nevertheless, the veteran southpaw isn't an elite pitcher, and Coors Field can humble even the best hurlers. As a cherry on top, Pittsburgh's bullpen has had a bottom-five ERA, boosting Colorado's offensive upside tonight.
- Home (Target Field)
- Value: Medium
- Risk: Medium
- Game Type: Both
- Game Total/Moneyline: 8.5 Runs/MIN -165
The Twins are greeting a reeling hurler to town tonight, and they've enjoyed home cooking this year, tying for ninth in home wOBA (.325). In Michael Kopech's last five starts, he's been crushed for a 6.15 ERA, 5.55 xFIP and 2.73 HR/9. Will Kopech get the train back on the track tonight? Maybe. However, the Twins are a daunting assignment, so stacking Minnesota hoping he continues to struggle makes sense.
- Since 2019, Austin Riley has destroyed southpaws for a .269 ISO and 132 wRC+.
- Brendan Rodgers has thrived with the platoon advantage, beating up lefties for a .357 OBP, .227 ISO and 127 wRC+ in his career.
- Marcell Ozuna has been lacing the ball, even if his stats don't fully capture that. According to Baseball Savant, among 257 qualified hitters, Ozuna's -0.068 difference between his .304 wOBA and .372 xwOBA has tied for the fifth-highest negative difference. So, Ozuna has been very unlucky and should have better fortune if he keeps crushing the ball.
- Adam Duvall has had a .271 ISO against lefties since 2019, making him a sweet power-chasing punt.
- Jose Miranda has had a 105 wRC+ against righties in his rookie campaign. That's good enough for his low salary.
- Alex Kirilloff has been precisely an average hitter against righties in his young career. But, again, that will do for his modest salary against a struggling pitcher.
Friday's Hitter Strategy
The Braves and Rockies are the focal points for offense tonight. However, the Twins are an attractive stack, including some of their value options, such as Miranda and Kirilloff.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
