Many training camps start next week, meaning fantasy football drafts are heating up. Here’s a look at a few QBs coming off injuries that could impact the fantasy landscape this season.
What does Jimmy Garoppolo remaining on the 49ers tell us about the team’s confidence in Trey Lance? Almost nothing.
Garoppolo had surgery on his throwing shoulder four months ago and is about to be cleared for throwing now, per Ian Rapoport. His recovery timeline suggests that he had his rotator cuff repaired. John Lynch’s March comments — saying that two doctors had recommended nonoperative treatment with rehab — imply that the tear itself wasn’t awful. Altogether, probably fair to expect a strong recovery, but an NFL general manager trading for him without seeing him throw first would’ve been reckless.
For fantasy football managers, it’s probably too early to roster him now without knowing where he will land. His ceiling is too low for most 1QB re-draft leagues anyway. But if you’re in a 2QB, Superflex or dynasty format, you can get him for almost nothing (and maybe even stash him on an IR spot). That might be worth doing for the off chance he ends up somewhere like Cleveland with a mega-talented offense around him.
Winston is a huge sleeper value opportunity in 2QB and Superflex leagues. He underwent surgery for an ACL tear back in November, which means he’ll be about nine months into recovery by the start of training camp and closer to 11 by the start of the season. For a QB, historical NFL data strongly favors a return to the field by then, and all reports so far from New Orleans have been consistent with that forecast.
Astute managers ask, “What about the performance dip immediately off of an ACL?” Well, you’re not wrong. Most NFL players see a ~25% decrease in their production if they return to game action by 11 months, and in many cases, it takes until Year 2 post-injury for their stats to recover. However, QB is different.
QBs in the SportsMedAnalytics database hit the ground running, with production that is pretty similar to their pre-injury baselines. This is especially true of pocket-based QBs, as you would probably guess. What about 2022 durability issues? RBs and WRs off of significant knee surgeries are at higher risk for soft-tissue strains (think hamstrings, glutes, etc.). But once again, that risk is much lower for pocket-based QBs. The demands of the positions dictate the risks, and for Jameis, the profile is pretty favorable.
For fantasy managers, Jameis has always been closer to erratic than reliable. But with reports on Michael Thomas looking positive (stay tuned for our breakdown on his injury), the addition of Chris Olave and the possible availability of Alvin Kamara, we don’t hate how this offense is shaping up for Jameis and the Saints.
If you want to dive deeper into fantasy football, check out our award-winning slate of Fantasy Football Tools as you navigate your season. From our Start/Sit Assistant – which provides your optimal lineup based on accurate consensus projections – to our Waiver Wire Assistant, which allows you to quickly see which available players will improve your team and how much – we’ve got you covered this fantasy football season.
