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There are conflicting reports today about whether or not Ravens RB J.K. Dobbins will be on the field when Baltimore travels to New Jersey to take on the Jets. Ian Rapoport dropped a note early Monday afternoon that Dobbins was “no sure thing” to be ready for Week 1, while the running back himself pushed back on the report.
J.K. Dobbins ‘no sure thing’ for Week 1
J.K. Dobbins was already expected to miss the 2022 preseason, and now it looks unlikely the Ravens’ running back will be ready to go for Week 1. (Ian Rapoport on Twitter)
Fantasy Impact:
Dobbins suffered a complex ACL tear in the final preseason game of 2021, and Baltimore is in no rush to get their starting running back up to full speed for Week 1. The Ravens will likely lean on a combination of offseason signing Mike Davis and Gus Edwards for running back duties during Dobbins’ absence. It’s worth noting that Edwards is also recovering from an ACL tear, but is expected to see limited action in preseason and be ready to go for the regular season opener. Not much fantasy value should be expected out of a Davis and Edwards split. Dobbins RB22 ADP will likely fall after this news, and he could become an intriguing bench stash in hopes of a strong late-season comeback.
– Joe Orrico
J.K. Dobbins pushes back on previous report
After a report from NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport said RB J.K. Dobbins is not a sure-fire play for Week 1, Dobbins went to Twitter to refute the claims. Dobbins said he “might not even go on PUP” due to his successful rehab from his ACL tear, and that he is “going to be ready for Week 1.” (Source: J.K. Dobbins on Twitter)
Fantasy Impact: Dobbins is currently being drafted at RB21 in PPR leagues according to FantasyPros average draft position just one year after an ACL tear cost him his sophomore season. Dobbins was a popular breakout candidate in 2021 before the injury. With a Baltimore Ravens offense that looks like it’s primed to return to its smashmouth playstyle, Dobbins will likely be the primary beneficiary. He finished the 2020-2021 season with 495 rushing yards and seven touchdowns in his final six games while operating as the team’s lead back. With a potential full, healthy season ahead of him, Dobbins can easily finish as an RB2 with RB1 potential based on volume.
– Jordan Epp
Andrew Erickson’s Players to Avoid: J.K. Dobbins (RB – BAL)
Running backs tied to a mobile quarterback are often short-changed when it comes to the passing game. For as well as J.K. Dobbins performed in fantasy football from Weeks 11-17 in full PPR (RB11) during the 2020 season, guess who outscored him… J.D. McKissic. That’s because McKissic caught 37 passes versus Dobbins’ three.
Guys like Derrick Henry can overcome the lack of receiving work because they are entrenched bellcows, but that’s not the case with Dobbins in Baltimore with Gus Edwards also in the mix. Dobbins only slightly out-touched Edwards 86-74 down the stretch in 2020.
It would be pure ignorance to assume that Dobbins will take over the backfield coming off an injury, considering Edwards has been excellent with every opportunity he has received.
Dobbins also ran extremely hot when it came to scoring touchdowns, scoring at least one TD in every game from Week 11 on. His nine total rushing TDs ranked 12th in the league and nearly doubled his expected output (5.5, 30th) — the sixth-highest difference at the position.
Drafters have to understand that to invest in Dobbins as a late third-rounder or fourth-rounder (RB22, 45th overall ADP), he needs to run hot in the TD category coming off the season-ending ACL injury. They also should expect zero-to-little pass-game work with Jackson’s tendency to not check down along with the additions of two receiving backs, veteran Mike Davis and rookie Tyler Badie.
– Andrew Erickson
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