Fantasy Football Mock Draft: 12-Team, PPR, Middle Pick (2022)

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Mock Draft Picks: 12-Team, PPR, No. 4 Pick

Round 1, Pick 4: Derrick Henry (RB – TEN)

Those that faded Derrick Henry as a first-round pick in 2021 received suboptimal results. The Tennessee Titans running back led the position in fantasy PPR points per game (23.4) through eight weeks and bested his 2020 2,000-yard campaign by more than 2.5 PPR points per game.

The unicorn running back averaged 29.6 touches per game – seven more than the next closest running back before his injury. And although he didn’t play again until the postseason, Henry still finished 15th in the NFL in total touches and as the RB20 overall in just eight games played.

No running back better depicts the “volume is king” mantra better than the King himself and his guaranteed volume makes him nearly bulletproof.

Coming off an injury-plagued season does raise some concerns about whether Henry’s body is going to break down because of his insane workload. And the lack of pass-game usage is a detriment to his value in PPR formats. But it’s impossible to ignore his workload opportunity in 2022 within the Titans’ anemic passing offense. They don’t have any reason to not feature him and there are no indications that they are going to stop with him due $15M this season.

Seems more likely than not they ride Henry did his contract expires before the 2024 season when he hits age 30.

Round 2, Pick 9: Leonard Fournette (RB – TB)

It’s been a long journey for Leonard Fournette from his last days as “Fat Lenny” with the Jacksonville Jaguars earning the moniker “Lombardi Lenny” due to his brilliant play for Tampa Bay the last year and a half.

He impressed the Buccaneers’ front office – and a certain No. 12 quarterback – enough to earn a fat three-year deal with his old team worth $21 million up to $24 million. There’s zero doubt with his performance and contract that he will be the entrenched clear-cut starter for the Bucs, and that’s exactly the desired outcome for fantasy football.

Fournette ranked fifth in fantasy points and fourth in expected fantasy points per game before his Week 15 injury, leading all running in receptions (62). Upon his return to the lineup for the Buccaneers’ playoff matchup against the Los Angeles Rams, Fournette reclaimed bell-cow duties, playing 86% of Tampa Bay’s offensive snaps to go with 22 touches for 107 yards from scrimmage.

With an all-encompassing skill set at just 27 years old, Fournette possesses easy top-10 running back fantasy appeal. He slides inside my early 2022 running back rankings as RB8 because a fantasy RB1 is exactly what he has been in the Tom Brady-led offense.

Round 3, Pick 4: Keenan Allen (WR – LAC)

The 2021 season represented the latest installment of Keenan Allen just being straight a baller and one of the most perennially underrated wide receivers in the NFL. He caught 100-plus passes for the fifth straight season and finished as the WR14 overall and in fantasy points per game (12.8).

The Chargers slot receiver remained Justin Herbert‘s go-to option as his 17th-ranked 22% target share led the Chargers.

But it’s worth noting that Mike Williams out-scored Allen in half-point scoring in the season’s totality and that Allen posted his lowest yards per route run (1.78) since 2014.

Round 4, Pick 9: Brandin Cooks (WR – HOU)

Brandin Cooks has finished worse than the fantasy WR20 only once since 2015, and that was due to injury. He has eclipsed 1,000 receiving yards six times with four different teams during that span.

At just 28 years old, Cooks shows little signs of slowing down. Last season, he was a target and air yards hog, finishing fourth in air yards share (36%) and ninth in target share (24%).

And during the final four games of the season with Davis Mills at quarterback, Cooks was top-10 in fantasy points per game (15.0) to go along with a top-5 target rate per route run (33%).

Round 5, Pick 4: Marquise Brown (WR – ARI)

Marquise Brown seems slated for a massive target share in the Arizona Cardinals’ pass-heavy offense.

Brown posted a top-12 target share last season (23%) with Baltimore. The speedy wideout also commanded a whopping 27% target share back in 2018 at Oklahoma – the last time he played with Murray. Christian Kirk was WR12 during the last four weeks without Hopkins in the lineup.

The Cardinals paid a premium to acquire Brown, so fantasy managers should expect them to use him plenty. Brace yourself for Brown to skyrocket up 2022 best-ball rankings as a top-20 fantasy WR option.

Round 6, Pick 9: Rashod Bateman (WR – BAL)

The Baltimore Ravens traded Marquise Brown to the Arizona Cardinals this offseason, opening the WR1 role on offense. Bateman has the opportunity to step in and be the true No. 1 wide receiver for Lamar Jackson in 2022 and beyond.

With Brown’s 23% target share departure, Bateman can seize a massive role for fantasy as a high-end WR2. 2022 is Shoddy B breakout SZN.

Round 7, Pick 4: Joe Burrow (QB – CIN)

Joe Burrow finished the regular season as PFF’s highest-graded passer (91.2) while also ranking first in super sticky stats like passing grade from a clean pocket (94.6) and passing grade throwing at the intermediate level (95.6). He finished the season as the QB8 averaging just north of 20.5 fantasy points per game.

The Bengals quarterback has undoubtedly entered the conversation as one of the league’s best real-life NFL passers, but might be slightly overvalued based on early best ball ADP with impending regression. He’s the QB6 despite finishing as a top-6 fantasy quarterback just thrice in 2021.

No quarterback scored more fantasy points over expectation, which hints that regression will hit Burrow in 2022. The LSU product also rushed for just 118 yards and two TDs. He rushed for fewer yards than Mac Jones, who is notorious for being ranked low across consensus due to his lack of upside as a rusher.

However, there is a legitimate path for Burrow’s upside to be further unlocked if the Bengals increase their pass rate as they did during his rookie season and down the playoff stretch. Burrow led the NFL in passing attempts per game (40.4) during his rookie season and averaged 38 passing attempts/23.0 fantasy points per game in his final six weeks

An uptick in passing volume won’t help Burrow’s efficiency per se, but his fantasy numbers will be much more stable from week to week.

Also can’t forget to mention the Bengals revamped their offensive line as they look to not let their franchise quarterback get sacked 70 times – 22 more than the next closest quarterback.

Round 8, Pick 9: Kareem Hunt (RB – CLE)

Kareem Hunt’s been rumored to be on the trade block this offseason. His contract expires in 2023, and the Browns have a mighty stable of backs behind Nick Chubb including D’Ernest Johnson, Jerome Ford, and Demetric Felton.

If no deal is reached by the time the season starts, it would be much less likely that Hunt stays in Cleveland, making him a prime trade target for any team that suffers an injury at running back through training camp/preseason.

Last year, Hunt was limited to just eight games due to a calf injury — but he maintained his effectiveness when healthy through the first six weeks of the season. He was a top-10 running back in PPR averaging 17 fantasy points per game and compiling just south of 15 touches per game.

Hunt’s true upside will always be capped in a backfield as the Robin to Chubb’s Batman. But should an injury occur to Chubb or another star running back, Hunt would easily flirt with league-winning upside if he is awarded the requisite volume to do so.

His sixth-ranked yards after contact per attempt (3.54), sixth-ranked yards per route run (1.81), and 26% target rate suggest he’s not slowing down entering his age-27 season. All he needs is a change of scenery to recapture his rookie-year accolades when he led the NFL in rushing yards.

Round 9, Pick 4: Russell Gage (WR – TB)

Gage is coming off a stellar year after posting career-highs in yards per route run (1.96) and PFF receiving grade (76.0) while playing more on the outside. Often thought of as a “slot-only” wideout, Gage split snaps 50/50 from the slot versus outside in 2021.

He also led the Falcons with a 29% target share since Week 11 – playing 53% of his snaps for the outside – showcasing his ability to earn passing volume alongside the talented Kyle Pitts.

Any receiver in a Tom Brady-led offense should be a sought-after commodity – so consider me in on Gage in 2022. There are plenty of scenarios where Gage continues his success from the tail-end of last season.

Round 10, Pick 9: Dallas Goedert (TE – PHI)

It took much longer than many fantasy gamers would have liked, but Dallas Goedert finally broke out in 2021 after being overshadowed by Zach Ertz since his rookie year. The Eagles’ tight end finished as PFF’s second-highest graded receiving tight end (91.1) and as the TE10 overall, with the majority of his fantasy production coming from Week 7 onward. In those 11 games played – including the postseason – Goedert averaged 11.8 fantasy points per game, which would have ranked as the TE8 from a season-long perspective.

Round 11, Pick 4: Alexander Mattison (RB – MIN)

Alexander Mattison has played out of his mind when given the opportunity with Dalvin Cook sidelined. In the four games since 2020 with 60% or higher snap counts, he’s averaged 23.5 rushing attempts with 148.2 total yards per game. In that quartet of games, he was the RB7, RB6, RB8, and RB4 in weekly scoring. Assuming Kevin O’Connell doesn’t upset the order of things or Ty Chandler or Kene Nwangwu don’t hop him on the depth chart, Mattison is primed to remain one of the top handcuff options in fantasy.

Round 12, Pick 9: Cole Kmet (TE – CHI)

No tight end should make a bigger leap in 2022 than the third-year tight end, whose upside has been capped by a lack of touchdown equity with veteran Jimmy Graham rearing his ugly head the past few seasons. But Graham’s currently a free agent, opening the door for Kmet to smash in 2022.

Kmet’s eighth-ranked route participation and seventh-ranked target share (17%) from 2021 hardly align with his fantasy production — no tight end finished with more fantasy points under expectation (-36.6) than the Notre Dame product in 2021.

That designation is a sign Kmet is due for a fantasy breakout. It signaled as much for guys like Zach Ertz and Dawson Knox, who scored fewer points than expected in 2020 before contributing in fantasy this year. Both tight ends finished 2021 as top-10 options at the position in fantasy points per game.

The Chicago Bears hired offensive coordinator Luke Getsy to pair with second-year quarterback Justin Fields. Getsy should be able to build an offense more conducive to Fields’ mobility – something he had success with at Mississippi State as its former OC.

An overall offensive boost should help fuel Kmet as 2022’s breakout tight end. He has the requisite size and athleticism, sporting an 87th-percentile height, 88th-percentile vertical jump, and 89th-percentile broad jump.

Kmet checks off all the boxes for a tight end breakout, and that’s exactly why I have him ranked three spots ahead of consensus at TE13.

Round 13, Pick 4: Tim Patrick (WR – DEN)

Pairing Tim Patrick with Russell Wilson is the best way to find fantasy value in the later rounds of drafts. Patrick is seriously underrated despite the fact that he has out-produced Jerry Jeudy in the fantasy points column the last two seasons and has seen a featured role as a red-zone threat.

His production over the last two seasons earned him a three-year, $34.5 million contract extension. Like it or not, Patrick will be on the field as much — if not more — as Jeudy in 2022 as the boundary receiver opposite Courtland Sutton. And their two ADPs couldn’t be more different.

Round 14, Pick 9: Jahan Dotson (WR – WAS)

Jahan Dotson should immediately start in two wide receiver sets opposite Terry McLaurin. Dotson’s 90th percentile college dominator and 95th percentile target share while at Penn State illuminate the caliber of player he is. The Commanders’ passing rate could cap Dotson’s ceiling this year if the coaching staff comes to the same realization that the Colts did. That Carson Wentz is nothing more than a glorified game manager at this point in his career. As erratic as Wentz is, Dotson should enjoy an upgrade over the collegiate quarterback play he suffered through. The lone bright spot for Wentz is if Dotson can use his speed to get loose deep, Wentz should be able to hit him in stride. Wentz was fourth in deep-ball accuracy last season.

Mock Draft Results and Analysis

FantasyPros Staff Consensus 2022 Redraft Fantasy Football Rankings

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