I don’t know about you, but I need Wins. They’ve been difficult to get in several of my leagues. The leader in baseball is Justin Verlander (HOU) with 12 Wins. But allow me to list some of the most surprising pitchers at the bottom of the barrel.
Frankie Montas (OAK) has 3 Wins with his sparkling 3.16 ERA. You might say, “Sure, Josh! He plays for Oakland. What do you expect?” But Jordan Montgomery (NYY) has pitched really well this season for one of the top teams in baseball, and three Wins accompany his 3.24 ERA. Kevin Gausman has 6 Wins with his 2.87 ERA, similar to Pablo Lopez‘s six Wins with his solid 3.14 ERA.
I’m not saying this article may magically offer you a bunch of Wins in one week. But when in doubt, I tried to choose guys that provide a glimmer of hope because they’re on high-scoring teams, like Mitch White against the Nationals.
I don’t know about you, but I need Wins. They’ve been difficult to get in several of my leagues. The leader in baseball is Justin Verlander (HOU) with 12 Wins. But allow me to list some of the most surprising pitchers at the bottom of the barrel.
Frankie Montas (OAK) has 3 Wins with his sparkling 3.16 ERA. You might say, “Sure, Josh! He plays for Oakland. What do you expect?” But Jordan Montgomery (NYY) has pitched really well this season for one of the top teams in baseball, and three Wins accompany his 3.24 ERA. Kevin Gausman has 6 Wins with his 2.87 ERA, similar to Pablo Lopez‘s six Wins with his solid 3.14 ERA.
I’m not saying this article may magically offer you a bunch of Wins in one week. But when in doubt, I tried to choose guys that provide a glimmer of hope because they’re on high-scoring teams, like Mitch White against the Nationals.
The best day to stream is Saturday. If you are streaming monster and you rotate several roster spots in an H2H league, I’d play all three of my suggestions.
Remember, I must try to choose pitchers rostered in 30% of Yahoo leagues or less. I must also select a pitcher every day, even if it’s challenging to find a safer option.
Let’s get to it.
Monday, July 25
Keegan Thompson (CHC) vs. PIT 40%
I wanted to choose Jakob Junis (SF) below because he pitches for a high-scoring team, but he hasn’t pitched five innings since June 10th. He may have pitched five innings since this article was published, but I’m still leaning toward Thompson against the Pirates. The 27-year-old Thompson owns a 3.43 ERA to go with his 3.75 FIP. His fastball has been more deceptive this season, generating a 33.5% CSW. It was at 26.3% last year. Part of this is his ability to get more whiffs. Some of his other pitches also show more ability to get hitters swinging (and missing) on pitches outside the zone. Since the Pirates are third in strikeouts (and he has done well against them in the past), let’s set Thompson in there and hope for the best.
Other option: Jakob Junis (SF) at ARI 21%
Tuesday, July 26
Mitch White (LAD) vs. WSH 8%
I’m hoping Mitch White can give us a Win on Tuesday. In his last outing against the Giants, he shut them out for five innings. White only struck out one batter and didn’t get the win, but his teammate Tony Gonsolin (LAD) has continually managed to procure Wins in short outings for the Dodgers this year. The Nationals are 25th in runs scored this season. The Dodgers are 2nd in that category. White has a 3.78 ERA to go along with a 4.21 FIP. That’s not great. But there is some hope he’s turning a corner. What we want to see is a clever mix of the slider and fastball to generate more groundballs. Or a strikeout. One significant change this season is his inability to place that slider in the zone. 50.4% of his sliders went over the dish in 2021, but so far, he’s throwing them over the plate 35.5% of the time in 2022. The good news? He threw more pitches over the zone in his previous shutout, his best Zone% since June 1st. I’m hoping he can do it again.
Other option: Adrian Sampson (CHC) vs. PIT 3%
Wednesday, July 27
Braxton Garrett (MIA) at CIN 20%
I want to choose Nick Lodolo for the strikeout potential, but I’m fighting for Wins this week. I’m betting on Miami in this game for one reason: Braxton Garrett limits the walks. Lodolo may give you a 12.99 K/9 (wowza!), but he also gives you a 4.10 BB/9 (also wowza!) this season. You’re setting yourself up for a disaster if you’re putting so many guys on base via the free pass. Braxton Garrett has largely transferred his control gains from this year in Triple-A, pitching to a 2.09 BB/9 in Miami. And it’s not like he’s failing to strike out batters at 8.94 K/9. Baseball has a cruel ecology, so hitters may start to figure out this former 7th overall pick, but right now, he’s doing a lot more right than wrong. His GB% is 45.1%, and in Triple-A this year, it was 57.3%. Let’s see if he can keep it on the ground in Cincinnati.
Other option: Be careful, but if you need strikeouts, here you go: Nick Lodolo (CIN) vs. MIA 20%
Thursday, July 28
Kutter Crawford (BOS) vs. CLE 6%
This seems to be a day where you might not stream. But if you do, it could be fun to try Kutter Crawford. Crawford has a 3.72 FIP in 36 IP this season and has started to pitch at least five innings more often since the middle of June. Boston is 8th in runs-scored, and I’m hoping they score early against the Guardians. If you’re wondering if Kutter throws a cutter, he does. It’s not as good as his four-seamer, which has generated a 32.3% CSW this year. I like the 11 K/9 and the team, so it’s worth trying.
Other option: nope
Friday, July 29
Alex Cobb (SF) vs. CHC 34%
I don’t have a lot of options again today, so we’re going with our favorite repeat-pitcher (until he gets more love and people pick him up). He’s not playing at home, which I prefer, but he’s still pitching for one of the top run-producing teams (4th in runs). What else can I say about Cobb that hasn’t already been said since April. He owns a 3.00 FIP, an 8.70 K/9, and a 62.9% GB%. Let’s play the matchup.
Other option: I’ll leave it.
Saturday, July 30
Ross Stripling (TOR) vs. DET 41%
Stripling has accomplished something that many of us would like: He has gotten his numbers back to pre-COVID times. For me, the number that needs to return to pre-COVID times is my weight. For Stripling, the number is his ERA. With a 3.03 ERA (3.09 FIP), his changeup has returned to befuddle hitters. But he’s mixing in his slider in more often too. I’m breaking my 30% rostership rule this weekend with four possible pitchers. This hasn’t increased his strikeout rate as much as it has improved his GB% and overall soft contact. As he’s pitching against one of the weaker teams in baseball (29th in runs-scored), this makes sense. Briefly, I will also mention that Johnny Cueto (CWS) is pitching well and has a weaker matchup against Oakland. Suarez (PHI) is looking good too and faces the Pirates.
Other option: Johnny Cueto (CWS) vs. OAK 48% or Ranger Suarez (PHI) at PIT 48%
Sunday, July 31
Jake Odorizzi (HOU) vs. SEA 36%
Doubling his use of the cutter (Kutter would be proud), Odorizzi has reduced his split-finger fastball. And this has worked in the early trials. Hitters are swinging at this pitch outside of the zone more often (26.6% in 2021 compared to 37.6% in 2022). You might expect this to lead to more strikeouts, but instead, it has led to softer contact or balls on the ground. Last year, hitters “topped” the cutter 18.2% of the time, but that number is up to 28.1% in 2022.
Other option: none
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