If you’re in a league where it’s difficult to stream starting pitching due to availability, you’ve come to the right place. I will try to offer a decent play every day, and I will do so by choosing pitchers near or below 30% rostership.
Of course, nothing is guaranteed when we claim a “barely-owned” pitcher for a single start. After all, there is a reason these folks are available. Danger lurks around every corner, so streaming at this level isn’t for the faint-hearted. But if we look at the matchups and the underlying numbers, it’s possible to thread the needle.
Good luck to us! Let’s see this week’s options!
Monday, July 11
Alex Cobb (SP – SF) vs. ARI 33%
I know, I know. Cobb didn’t look that great against the Diamondbacks in his last outing. He gave up four runs over six innings and only struck out three. But that just makes it possible for us to get him on waivers. Last week, I pointed to my preference for playing him at Oracle Park. Well, guess what? He gets a rematch against these Diamondbacks in San Francisco. As Jay Jaffe notes on Fangraphs, Cobb has fallen victim to poor defense, and his 4.74 ERA is still much higher than the 2.71 xERA. Even in that previous game in Arizona, his BABIP was .318 with a LOB% of 50%. Let’s see if we can find better results in a two-start week at home.
Other option: Let’s leave it.
Tuesday, July 12
Roansy Contreras (SP – PIT) at MIA 25%
You could take a day off today. There aren’t many great options at 30% rostership. But here goes nothing. My brain says take Adrian Sampson at Wrigley against Baltimore. But my heart wants Contreras to repeat his last outing. In that start against Cincinnati, he managed a 30% CSW, punching out seven Reds over six innings. The slider alone had a 38% CSW. After the game, Contreras was demoted to Triple-A, but many believe he’ll be recalled for the game against Miami. His outing against Milwaukee was really…bad. Most of his weaker outings have never been that disastrous. So maybe he’s figuring something out between these two starts. We can hope. It has been a bumpy ride, but let’s plug him in.
Other option: Adrian Sampson (CHC) vs. BAL 1%
Wednesday, July 13
Marco Gonzales (SP – SEA) at WAS 32%
Gonzales is hard to ignore here. The 30-year-old Seattle pitcher is not giving us many strikeouts, with a 4.67 K/9, but his 46.5% GB% is nearly 15% higher than last year. He’s got a 3.24 ERA with a higher 5.14 FIP. But there is a lot to say for the new pitch mix, as he’s throwing that changeup 13% more than last year, which has helped drive the worm-killing results. Let’s see if he can keep it up against the Nationals. If you are wary, consider the other options below.
Other options: Brady Singer (KC) vs. DET 23% or Keegan Thompson (CHC) vs. BAL 42%
Thursday, July 14
Braxton Garrett (SP – MIA) vs. PIT 2%
I’m riding the Garrett train for another week. He pitched 7.1 innings against the Nationals on Independence Day. He gave up one earned run and struck out four batters. He had a 33% CSW and only allowed four hits and one walk. Garrett also had a GB% of 55%. This first-round pick can certainly build toward a strikeout per inning based on his 2021 minor league 9.04 K/9 in 18 games. His strength seems to be with the off-speed stuff, with a handy slider that he throws 36% of the time. The Pirates are 28th in runs scored. Please give us another gem, Garrett!
Other option: Ross Stripling (TOR) vs. KC 38%
Friday, July 15
Zach Plesac (SP – CLE) vs. DET 49%
Today is tough to find pitchers rostered in less than 30% of Yahoo leagues. I’d take the day off. But I promise to suggest a guy (or two) every day. To give you a decent suggestion, I’m breaking my rule. Plesac has seven quality starts in a row! In fact, he’s only allowed three earned runs or more once in that time frame. His last clunker was against Houston on May 24. I could go with Alex Wood (see below), but be mindful that Milwaukee is on a tear. In the last two weeks, they have been the top run-scoring team in all of baseball. Plesac gets to face Detroit. I do not think Plesac is a different pitcher from his 4.67 ERA in 2021. He has a 3.80 ERA this year, but his underlying numbers indicate that he should be higher. This is a matchup play where we try to ride the hot hand.
Other option: Alex Wood (SF) vs. MIL 45%
Saturday, July 16
Alex Cobb (SF) vs. MIL 33%
Because I already cheated by going over 30% rostership on Friday, I’m sticking with our two-start pitcher of the week. Everything from Monday applies. Yes, hopefully, his defense doesn’t leave him hanging. Yes, we prefer to play him at home in Oracle Park. With all that said, if you find Wells available in your league (see below), he might be a solid option. He struck out seven hitters through six innings in Minnesota last week. His rostership increased significantly since June 27th, from 13% to 50%. It’s hard to ignore that 1.00 WHIP, so see if he can continue befuddling hitters with that increased changeup usage for an xBA .156. and a GB% of 51.1%.
Other option: Tyler Wells (BAL) at TB 50%
Sunday, July 17
Nick Lodolo (SP – CIN) at STL 23%
David Peterson didn’t make it out of the fourth inning last week against Cincinnati. But he struck out seven batters. He’s undoubtedly an option against Chicago, but he’s still owned in more leagues. So here’s a more dangerous play: Nick Lodolo. St. Louis is 24th in runs scored in the last two weeks. Lodolo is a 2019 first-round draft pick who has struck out 27 hitters in 19.1 innings this year. It’s a small sample, but his 4.19 ERA is accompanied by a 3.10 xFIP and a 3.44 xERA on Fangraphs. His CSW is 32.6%, and he’ll use a sinker, changeup, curve, and slider to get hitters out. The sinker in the zone seems to be the money pitch. I understand I’m going against the grain by starting him against St. Louis, but this is the game, right?
Other option: David Peterson (NYM) at CHC 41%
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