For Independence Day, I’m giving you all a gift: Max Scherzer‘s return from the IL. That’s the news of the week for me. He’s the probable starter for the Mets on Tuesday at Cincinnati.
But of course, he’s owned in 99% of Yahoo leagues. Therefore, this is the only context where I get to say this: When it comes to pitching streamers, he’s completely and utterly useless.
The week looks grim from a streaming perspective, but that never gets me down. It just means that we have to look for an edge. There are possibilities. My favorite matchups include Yusei Kikuchi against Oakland, Alex Cobb at Arizona, David Peterson versus the Marlins, and Ross Stripling at Seattle. I’m cheating a little this week by choosing several pitchers above my 30% rostership requirement, but it’s so close. I just know you’ll forgive me.
In addition to the 30% rostership rule, my second rule is simple: I must stream a pitcher every single day. I will warn you if I think it’s a day to take a break, but I’ll always give you a guy. So here goes nothing.
Happy Independence Day, Happy Max-Scherzer-Returns Day, and Happy Streaming!
Monday, July 4
Braxton Garrett (SP – MIA) at WSH 1%
The options seem lackluster for Independence Day. Most safe bets will veer toward the game in Baltimore, but I’m taking a risk on Braxton Garrett. The Cardinals got to him the last time out. Through 22.1 IP, he has a 5.24 ERA, but he has a 3.39 FIP and 3.69 xFIP. His SIERA is 3.82. With a .411 BABIP, there is some bad luck baked into the early going. The 2016 first-round pick may need time, I’ll admit it. Still, with five pitches in his arsenal, he’s showing some interesting numbers. He uses the slider often, and it has generated a 32.7% CSW and a decent 47.1% GB%. His curveball should be fierce with how much it moves, and if you watch video of his breaking stuff, it’s clear that this is Garrett’s strength (with his fastball only sitting around 92 mph). In the last two weeks, the Nationals have slumped. They’re near the bottom in runs scored during this time. My hope is that Garrett works hard to prove himself, and he meets an opponent at the right time.
Other option: Dane Dunning (TEX) at BAL 14% or Dean Kremer (BAL) vs TEX 15%
Tuesday, July 5
Yusei Kikuchi (SP – TOR) at OAK 22%
Oakland is 29th in runs scored this year, so it’s easy to find their daily matchup and see if the opposing pitcher qualifies for this article. However, it’s even easier when they’re facing a team that is sixth in runs scored for the season and second in runs scored for the last two weeks. Kikuchi hasn’t made his way onto my radar since I fell for his increased strikeout rates after a modified leg kick and a repositioning of the catcher target in May. Well, the strikeouts remain: 10.63 K/9. That’s the highest of his career. But so are the home runs at a HR/FB of 22.2%. I see some minor progress in his last two outings, both of which saw him limit the flyball (25% and 15.4%). Against Milwaukee, his xFIP was 2.61 and against Tampa Bay, it was 1.45. He was throwing more of his arsenal in the zone against Milwaukee (52.2%) and Tampa Bay (41.3%). He seemed to be struggling (maybe not trusting his stuff) in his two matchups before that, barely cracking 37% in the zone. I know it’s tough to consider Kikuchi here, but we know he can get run support, and maybe we’ll stream him at a good time.
Other option: Mitch White (LAD) vs COL 6%
Wednesday, July 6
Alex Cobb (SF) at ARI 34%
It seems like I’ve been writing about Alex Cobb all year, but that’s because we haven’t seen the full Cobb yet. He’s only pitched 51 innings. I will quickly summarize the season-long narrative. Cobb has been very unlucky, with a 4.94 ERA and a 2.74 xFIP. He also has a LOB% of 58.5% and a BABIP of .359. So yeah, people see a hidden gem. I prefer to play him at Oracle Park, but his last outing gives me confidence. He shut the White Sox out through five innings. And if you think that’s because he was at home, he generated a whopping GB% of 66.7%. Arizona hits the ball on the ground 43.6% of the time. Let’s go for it.
Other option: Adrian Sampson (CHC) at MIL 3%
Thursday, July 7
David Peterson (NYM) vs. MIA 36%
Miami is fourth in the league in GB%, and David Peterson generates a GB% of 54.5%. The Mets have been slumping lately, but they’re still sixth in runs scored while Miami is 17th in runs scored. In 58.1 IP, Peterson has a 3.24 ERA (xFIP 3.52) and a perfectly adequate 9.26 K/9. A former first-round pick, Peterson struck out eight Marlins on June 28, going seven innings and allowing two earned runs. I think he makes the most sense on Thursday.
Other option: I’ll leave it.
Friday, July 8
Ross Stripling (TOR) at SEA 40%
My alternate option below seems like a solid choice, but I’m going with Stripling. I was impressed by his ability to contain Boston the last time out. I also like the fact that Toronto is second in runs scored over the last two weeks (see note under Kikuchi above). Stripling is throwing his changeup a lot more in 2022, and while it’s not getting a ton of strikeouts, we’re seeing a significant increase in groundballs. Hitters aren’t able to square it up. He’s gone from a GB% on his changeup in 2021 of 34.7% to 54.7% in 2022. This has also managed to increase the GB% on his fastball by nearly 10%. On the season, Seattle is 24th in runs scored. Let’s hope for a Win here.
Other options: Chad Kuhl (COL) at ARI 19%
Saturday, July 9
Johnny Cueto (CWS) vs DET 23%
I watched Cueto a lot when he used to play for the Reds. Perhaps choosing him here is a homage to those days of yore. I want to play Cueto today because he’s facing the lowest run-scoring team in the league. However, his sinker has been really good this year. His sinker is generating a CSW of 30.6%. It’s got some real movement on it. The velocity on his fastball just isn’t what it used to be, but he’s not using it as much. Cueto threw the fastball 35% of the time in 2021, but this year he’s only used it 14% of the time. That’s probably because the fastball, in many ways, has become that sinker. But when he does throw it, like we’re seeing with Stripling above, he’s getting plenty of groundballs with the mix in movement. He generated a 28% GB% on fastballs in 2021 compared to this year, where his fastballs are generating a 40% GB%. In his last outing, he beat the Angels with a quality start. Let’s see if he can do it against Detroit.
Other options: Zach Plesac (CLE) at KC 42% or Devin Smeltzer (MIN) at TEX 21%
Sunday, July 10
Mitch White (LAD) vs CHC 6%
There are limited options this Sunday. You could sit this one out. If you must play someone, I’m crossing my fingers and hoping for Mitch White’s slider to come around. With Heaney back on the IL, White is going to see some time in the starting rotation. In 34.1 innings, he has a 3.93 ERA, and the underlying stats agree with that number. Let’s talk about his slider. He’s using it nearly 11% more than 2021, and it’s been less effective. Last year, he generated a CSW of 30.5% on that pitch to go with a GB% of 57.1%. This year, it’s generating a CSW of 27.8% and a GB% of 33.3%. The change in the pitch mix isn’t helping his fastball either, which is seeing similar decreases in his CSW%. It’s a risky play. It’s not like the Cubs have been quiet. In fact, their strongest attribute is their hitting. But the Dodgers can help White get a Win still, and if that slider shows up, he could give us a solid Sunday.
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