Fantasy Baseball Category Analysis: Kyle Lewis, Carson Kelly, Braxton Garrett (2022)

Holy Toronto Blue Jays! What happened Boston?!? I’m not even sure the Jaguars scored that many points in a game last year. If you’re lucky enough to roster some of those Canadian players, you likely cleaned up. I feel bad for those George Springer owners though. What a time to just take “an extra day off”.

And what was Jarren Duran doing on that play? I know he lost it in the lights, but to then just stand there while his teammates ran down the ball? Not a good look.

I’m hopeful some of you were able to add Danny Jansen, as I featured him under Home Runs last week. He made me look good by launching two dingers in Friday’s shellacking. Or hopefully Leody Taveras, who has just been on fire.

Ideally, we’ll keep the good mojo going this week with these next 10 guys. All the players listed are still rostered in less than 50% of Yahoo leagues and can help you in at least one major statistical category. Many of them will help you in more ways than one, but their primary contributions will come in the category under which they are listed.

With the All-Star game come and gone and the trade deadline coming up, a few players may lose or increase in value. And while it’s nearly impossible to predict where a player will end up, moving to a contender with a better supporting cast is almost always a plus. There’s one player in particular on this list who already qualifies for such a distinction.

Also, it should be noted that I try not to repeat players week to week, so if there’s an obvious choice missing, that’s likely why. You can always check back on my earlier posts. Some of those guys are still available and shouldn’t be.

Home Runs

Kyle Lewis (OF – SEA): 31%

Lewis is coming off of a dazzling rehab performance where he slugged five home runs in 10 games. He also hit two dingers in just four MLB games when he returned earlier in the season from a knee injury. It was a concussion that held him out this time, but now fully healthy, expect the Mariners’ powerful outfielder to get back to his mashing ways.

The fact that he started Friday night’s game in right field and not at DH is a great sign that bodes well for his clean bill of health. He’s already hit 22 home runs in just 112 games for his career and is a strong candidate to do a lot more damage. Add Lewis everywhere to increase your home run total.

RBI

Daniel Vogelbach (1B – NYM): 4%

Vogelbach, baby! I know I’ve featured him before but that was when the stockiest man in baseball was with the lowly Pirates… and it was for home runs! Now a part of the Metropolitans, the massive first baseman is likely to see a plethora of RBI chances.

While the Mets’ faithful moan and groan (most hate the trade), savvy fantasy managers see his addition as an opportunity. Vogelbach won’t steal any bases and his average won’t be great, but against RHP, he will mash. With absolutely no protection behind him, Vogelbach still managed a .260/.365/.537 stat line against righties. In daily leagues, when the Mets face a southpaw, he belongs on your bench, but for the majority of the time, that .896 OPS will play nicely in Citi Field.

And if you think PNC Park’s short porch in right has a lot to do with Vogelbach’s output, then think again. Volgy’s hit more dingers on the road than at home this season. The Mets may still add another bat, but in the meantime, Vogelbach is an excellent choice for fantasy managers chasing RBIs.

Batting Average

Josh Naylor (1B/OF – CLE): 41%

I could put Donovan Solano here or even Steven Kwan, but seeing as they do little else (besides hit for average), I’m going with the big man they call Naylz. He may not hit for as high of an average, but it’ll be close and he’ll hit for much more power.

Naylor also has a knack for hitting with men on base. The former first-rounder already has 47 RBIs to his credit in just 62 games. (With that in mind, I could just have easily put Naylor under RBI, but I really wanted to feature Volgy on his new team!)

Besides the RBIs, Naylor has produced a .274 average despite just a .276 BAbip. His strikeout rate is very low for a slugging first baseman at 16% and he hits the ball hard nearly 43% of the time. Also helping his average is the fact that he only pulls the ball 31% of the time (according to Baseball Reference — FanGraphs has it much higher), not allowing defenses to shift much. With all this in mind, Naylor’s average could improve even further.

Naylor is a three-category stud and should be treated as such. Add the ex-Padre now and raise three of your main batting categories.

Runs

Carson Kelly (C – ARI): 8%

If you missed out on Danny Jansen or runs are what you are after, then look no further than Carson Kelly. The rejuvenated Kelly has been on a tear lately, hitting in 11 straight and 14 of the last 15. He’s been so hot at the dish, management has moved him into the leadoff spot against left-handed pitching.

He’s scored 11 runs and knocked in just as many over his last 15 games. Kelly’s batting nearly .380 for the month and has shown no signs of slowing down, hitting nearly every type of offering thrown his way.

The Arizona backstop got off to a similar stretch to begin last season until injuries eventually slowed him down. One of the main pieces that sent Paul Goldschmidt to St. Louis is again showing why he was so highly touted. Catcher is always a difficult position to fill and if yours isn’t getting the job done, look to Kelly to boost your totals, especially runs scored.

Stolen Bases

Harrison Bader (OF – STL): 46%

Bader’s return (a new Star Wars movie?) is just around the corner, as he’s finally on a rehab assignment in Triple-A Memphis. The speedy center fielder hardly hit the cover off the ball this season but has already successfully swiped 15 bags in just 72 games. His tools should keep him in the lineup on a regular basis, plus he’ll add a few dingers to boot. With the amount of upside Bader possesses, he’s worthy of a roster spot in nearly all leagues.

WHIP

Braxton Garrett (SP – MIA): 22%

Coming off an 11-strikeout performance against the Pirates, Garrett kept the good times rolling with another stellar outing. Lasting six innings, the young lefty allowed just two hits and one walk. The nearly flawless encore lowered his WHIP to a solid 1.14.

Yes, it was against the Pirates again, a Daniel Vogelbach-less Pirates, but Garrett has been consistent all month long (four starts, 1.80 ERA/0.64 WHIP). He hasn’t given up many home runs all season (just five over nine starts) and he doesn’t issue a lot of free passes (2.05 BB/9). The former first-rounder also registered an even 1.00 WHIP this season in Triple-A and has averaged a strikeout per inning.

Lost among some of the bigger names in Miami, Garrett warrants your attention as well. He’s looked great all month long and should be helpful when it comes to lowering your WHIP.

Strikeouts

JT Brubaker (SP – PIT): 9%

Brubaker is scheduled to take on the hapless Cubs on Monday, who strike out the fourth most in baseball. A two-start pitcher for the week, Brubaker and his 9.29 K/9 will be a popular addition this weekend. He’s averaged better than a K per inning since making his debut in 2020 and should have no problem mowing down more than a few Cubbies. His ERA is a tolerable 4.02 for the season and his FIP is even better at 3.73. Brubaker can get wild at times, but starting him against weaker lineups is usually a recipe for success. Add Brubaker in deeper leagues to help boost those Ks.

Wins

Chris Flexen (SP – SEA): 32%

Gosh darn it, Chris Flexen, all you do is win! I have done my best to stay away from the Mariners’ soft-tossing righty, but I can’t stay away any longer!

The former Met and KBO standout has been a big part of Seattle’s recent success. He’s not only given up three runs or fewer in every start since May 21, but he has rattled off four straight wins in his last five starts. His latest start was cut short because he was starting on just three days’ rest, but Flexen still managed to only allow one run.

He’s scheduled to take on the Rangers again this week, and although Glenn Otto‘s getting better, my money’s on Flexen to do his thing once again. He did win 14 games last season, so the victories shouldn’t come as a complete surprise. Add Flexen now, as he’s locked in and deserves a spot on most rosters.

ERA

Johnny Cueto (SP – CWS): 49%

Cueto is another pitcher I’ve been wary of all season. As much as I’ve tried to avoid him, there’s no denying what he has accomplished. Eight shutout innings on July 9 against Detroit? Seven shutout innings in Houston last month? He’s been a bright spot on the South Side of Chicago with the team struggling in so many other areas.

I thought when Cueto left the pitcher’s haven in San Francisco, his fantasy relevance was over. Not that he was great in SF, but there was no way he was going to be better in Chicago. I was so wrong. Over 11 starts, the 36-year-old has registered a 2.80 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, four wins, and 58 strikeouts. The Ks aren’t anything to write home about, but the way Cueto has limited base runners and kept the opposition from scoring has been quite impressive.

The ageless wonder is scheduled to take on Cleveland today, but it’s the much juicier matchup with Oakland later in the week that should have you salivating. He still feels like a bit of a risk, but against Oakland, there should be no hesitation. Add Cueto now.

Saves

Alexis Diaz (RP – CIN): 14%

There are a few candidates out there, and I mentioned him a while back, but I’m going to go with Diaz here. He is leaps and bounds above any other arm the Reds possess in their bullpen.

With the lineup fully healthy again and their pitching staff still maintaining a bit of talent (even if their best guys get traded), I think the Reds will be in more than a few games in the second half. Don’t get me wrong, the Reds still stink, but when they do win, it’ll likely be a close game and Diaz will be the one to finish it.

On the year, Edwin Diaz‘s little brother has produced a 2.10 ERA over 34.1 innings. He has struck out 11.53/9 and has only allowed 16 hits and three home runs. He does walk a sizable amount, but the break on his slider is vicious and the amount of spin on his fastball is top-rate.

Diaz may not be as polished as his brother or throw quite as hard, but he’s looked the part in Cincinnati and should be their lone closer for the rest of the year.


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Austin Lowell is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Austin, check out his archive.