We have made it through another week of the season and reached the All-Star break. Therefore, we have another set of players to buy high or sell low based on their recent performances and a full-season outlook.
Some are just hot streaks, and some are worth buying into, so I’m here to help make the right decisions for your fantasy teams. With that said, let’s look at a handful of players that you should buy high or sell low.
Buy High
I have been anti-Corey Seager every season, which has paid off for the most part. This year that appears to be a big L for me. This past week, Seager hit safely in all seven games for a .321 batting average with three home runs. He only struck out 15.2% of the time while walking 12.1%. When Seager put the ball in play, he did it with authority with a 16.7% barrel rate and 54.2% hard-hit rate.
He is now hitting .251 on the season with 22 home runs and three stolen bases. Seager has an 11.5% barrel rate and 46.2% hard-hit rate to go with a .228 ISO and .804 OPS. Seager has been a monster at the plate, and the batting average should continue to improve based on his .311 xBA and .244 BABIP. He usually has a BABIP over .300, so even more positive regression may be coming his way. Buy Seager while you can.
Teoscar Hernandez is heating up in a big way and the time to trade for him is now. This past week, Hernandez hit .320 with three home runs and 10 RBI. He did strike out 36% of the time without walking, which isn’t ideal. Yet, when he did make contact, he barreled the ball 18.8% of the time with a 50% hard-hit rate. Teoscar is now hitting .265 with 12 home runs and five stolen bases. The rest of season projections have Teoscar hitting .262 with 12 home runs and five stolen bases. That would end the season in a big way for Teoscar.
It has been an injury-riddled season that has seen Jonathan India only hit .231 with four home runs, but this past week he is looking healthy, and it is time to buy back in on the stud second baseman for the Reds. India hit safely in all five games this past week for a .333 average with three extra-base hits, including a home run. He even stole a base to go with a .238 ISO, .988 OPS and 172 wRC+. A big second half is in store for India, so do not miss out.
Aaron Nola continues to do Nola things by pitching deep into games, racking up strikeouts and either giving up a couple of runs or a lot of runs. This past week he made two starts, one of which he went seven innings and allowed five runs while striking out seven. In his other start, he threw 8.1 shutout innings with 10 strikeouts. The result was a 2.93 ERA, 2.45 xFIP and a 28.1% K-BB. Nola now has a 3.13 ERA, 2.94 xFIP and 24.8% K-BB. He is still an elite pitcher and is worth rostering for the rest of the season regardless of the occasional hiccup.
Luis Castillo only made one start last week, but it was another gem. He threw seven innings while allowing one run and striking out eight in the Bronx. Castillo induced a 31.7% O-swing and 9.6% SwStr, which is not elite but still very strong. Castillo now has a 2.77 ERA and 3.44 xFIP on the season to go with a 17.1% K-BB. Castillo continues to improve as the season progresses and should continue to be a fantasy ace whose value may only get better if he gets traded out of Great American Small Park.
Sell Low
Kolten Wong’s fantasy value was high entering the season based on everyday playing time while leading off for the Brewers. Well, the regular playing time has hit a bit of a snag as he is sitting a little more often, and he is now batting fifth or sixth in the Brewers lineup. Wong collected only three hits and scored one run with a .000 ISO and -9 wRC+ this past week. If Wong is not leading off and playing every day, he will not be able to accumulate the counting stats, and he will need to be fantasy relevant.
Jonathan Villar (2B/SS/3B – LAA)
There were high hopes for Jonathan Villar getting a new start with the Angels. A chance to play every day and looking to leadoff. Well, that has already ended as he is not playing every day and hitting the bottom of the order. This past week he played in five games and collected two hits while striking out 31.3% of the time. Villar only had a .323 OPS with a 22 wRC+ and 0% barrel rate. His plate discipline was also poor, with a 31.6% O-swing, 65.5% contact rate and 17.2% SwStr. Villar appears broken, and it is time to cut ties with the veteran while you can.
I’ve already written to sell Cody Bellinger a few times, but we will try this again for those not listening. To put it simply, Bellinger is broken. This past week he collected three hits with a .000 ISO and 44 wRC+. Bellinger had a 0% barrel rate with a 23.1% hard-hit rate and 40.4% O-swing. Bellinger is hitting at the bottom of the Dodgers batting order and is lucky to still see regular playing time with as bad as he is playing offensively.
It has been a disastrous season for Lance Lynn and this past week’s two-step was horrific. He threw nine innings and allowed 14 runs while only striking out nine. He let three home runs go with a 14.3% barrel rate. In addition, Lynn allowed an 82% contact rate with an SwStr rate below 9%, so he was not fooling anyone. Lynn now has a 7.50 ERA and 4.07 xFIP through seven starts and seems wholly lost on the mound. It’s sad, but this year may not be the year to roster Lynn.
Hunter Greene took the league by storm with his 100+ mph fastballs, but of late, the overall production has been terrible. This past week he threw five innings in his only start and allowed four runs while walking three and striking out six. Greene still has an elite 28.8% strikeout rate but is also walking nearly 11% of the batters he faces while also allowing 2.29 HR/9. Greene has a solid 13.1% SwStr but also allows a near 11% barrel rate. There are some good things about Greene this year, but the downside has loomed large so far. Trade him now while some in the league may still be optimistic about the young righty.
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Brian Entrekin is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Brian, check out his Twitter @bdentrek.
