We’ve all made the mistake of reaching on a player in our fantasy drafts. There are those guys we want to believe will finally show the world who they are, the ones we project are in a better situation and should improve, or the player who is due for a breakout. It’s easy to be blinded by the idea that “talent always wins out.” While that sounds nice, we also know this isn’t true.

Eliminating bias and evaluating a situation can save you from making these mistakes come August. Here are two players I believe won’t live up to expectations in 2022.

Rankings based on FantasyPros Expert Consensus Rankings

Antonio Gibson (RB – WAS) ECR: 40 (RB19)

When the Washington Commanders selected RB Antonio Gibson in the third round of the 2020 NFL Draft, he was expected to be a dual-threat back like Christian McCaffrey has been in Carolina. It made sense given that head coach Rivera had been CMC’s head coach with the Panthers before landing in Washington, and Gibson had primarily played WR before converting to RB his senior season at Memphis. Unfortunately, the reality has been a much different story, and it’s not looking like it will improve for him in 2022.

The Commanders started 2022 free agency by re-signing RB J.D McKissic, who has out-targeted Gibson the past two seasons. Then, to make things even worse for Gibson, the team drafted Alabama RB Brian Robinson with the 98th overall pick in the 2022 NFL Draft. Washington has made it clear that Gibson isn’t going to see near the volume he’s seen in past seasons – on the ground or in the passing game. In 2021, he was out-targeted by McKissic (53 to 52) despite playing five more games. While he still managed to finish the season as the PPR RB12, he only eclipsed 100 yards twice.

With the addition of Robinson, and Rivera publicly stating the team will use a committee approach at RB this coming season, it’s hard to imagine Gibson being much more than a situational flex play. Of course, it’s not out of the question he finishes in the RB19 range, but a lot would have to swing his way for that to happen.

I am targeting two running backs with a similar ADP instead of Gibson: Breece Hall and JK Dobbins. Both are in what should be run-heavy offenses, and while Dobbins may lose some work to Gus Edwards and QB Lamar Jackson, Hall will likely be the workhorse for the Jets. These two RBs have top 5 overall potential at the position and are far less risky than rolling the dice on Gibson in the late third to early fourth-round of your drafts.

Deebo Samuel (WR – SF) ECR: 24 (WR10)

I understand this might seem ridiculous. Deebo Samuel had a ridiculous 2021 season, finishing as the overall WR3 in PPR formats. Not only did he finish the season with an impressive receiving stat line – 77 catches for 1,405 yards and six touchdowns – Samuel was also a terror out of the backfield, scoring more touchdowns on rushing plays than he did receiving (8). It was a truly exceptional performance from an incredibly athletic and talented player. So then, why would I be fading such talent?

Last season was a tough one for the 49ers regarding injuries. Starters George Kittle, Mohamed Sanu, Raheem Mostert, Trey Sermon and Elijah Mitchell all missed significant time. Deebo, on the other hand, only missed one game. His speed and ability as a runner were a colossal bailout for QB Jimmy Garoppolo. He was asked to do a lot in that offense, and if head coach Kyle Shanahan is smart, he will be looking to reduce Samuel’s workload in 2022 – even more so if Trey Lance takes over as the starting QB.

Part two of the fade is that we don’t know if Deebo Samuel will play for the 49ers this coming season. He has publicly asked to be traded and doesn’t seem to have backed down much as of this writing. I believe it is unlikely he will end up anywhere else, but it is a possibility.

Samuel will be fantasy relevant regardless of where he plays in 2022; that’s almost guaranteed as long as he stays healthy. However, WR10 is likely his ceiling, and his floor could be WR20 or worse. So rather than risking it with Deebo in the second round of drafts, I’m looking at Michael Pittman and Tee Higgins. Both are going in the same range or slightly later – by a few picks – but have significant upside and much less risk. Pittman will be Matt Ryan‘s number one receiving option in Indianapolis and Higgins still finished 2021 as the WR24 in PPR formats despite playing alongside Ja’Marr Chase. Could I be wildly wrong here? Of course, but I don’t think I am.

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Nate Polvogt is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Nate, check out his archive and follow him @NatePolvogt.