This column is going to be short and sweet this week.
Since the MLB All-Star Game is approaching, let’s take a look at a few players who were snubbed from the game and should have been selected instead of other players.
Ryan Mountcastle (1B/OF – BAL): 50.5% Hard-hit rate
No, hard-hit rate is not something that people look at when making selections for the All-Star teams, but Ryan Mountcastle should have made the team over Andrew Benintendi, Luis Arraez or Andres Gimenez nonetheless.
In terms of standard statistics, Mountcastle has more runs than Benintendi and Gimenez, more home runs and RBI than all three aforementioned players and as many steals as Arraez and Benintendi combined.
In terms of advanced statistics, the Baltimore star’s 15.9% barrel rate is ninth-highest in baseball, highest among first basemen and seventh-highest among outfielders.
His 50.5% hard-hit rate puts him at 15th overall, third among first basemen and seventh among outfielders.
Mountcastle has improved in nearly every statistical category from last season. He should be valued higher not only in fantasy baseball but in the actual baseball world as well.
It is a shame he did not make the All-Star team this season, but it is surely in his future.
Luis Robert (OF – CWS): 13.3% HR/FB rate
At the very least, Luis Robert should have been a reserve outfielder over Benintendi. Robert has more runs, homers, RBI and steals than Benintendi in fewer at-bats and in fewer hits.
Somehow, despite a league-worst 50% chase rate, Robert has increased his contact rate from last season and decreased his strikeout rate.
The White Sox outfielder possesses a modest 9% barrel rate and 40.6% hard-hit rate, which are not elite but are above league average.
Most projections systems on Fangraphs suggest that Robert should increase his home run output in the second half of the season, which is supported by a 13.3% HR/FB rate. It is 3% lower than his career rate, which means his home run pace should increase over the rest of the season.
No, Robert is not hitting in the .290-.350 range like some other players on the AL All-Star Squad, but he should have made it, and fantasy managers know why.
Logan Gilbert (SP – SEA): 100 K’s
Not only does Seattle’s Logan Gilbert have more strikeouts than Oakland’s Paul Blackburn, but he also has a lower ERA and a lower SIERA.
Gilbert’s 2.80 ERA is more than half a run better than Blackburn’s, and the fact that Gilbert has a lower SIERA suggests that he should be better over the course of the rest of the season as well.
The only area where Blackburn has a noticeable edge over Gilbert is in ground-ball rate, where Blackburn’s GB% is 10.4% higher than Gilbert’s. Otherwise, it is clear that the young Seattle star is the better option.
Gilbert has 100 K’s across 106 innings, giving him an 8.49 K/9 rate. He has a league-average 10.1% HR/FB rate, an 81.7% LOB rate and a BABIP that is hovering around his career average.
His xFIP (3.80) and SIERA (3.84) imply regression is coming, but the same can be said for Blackburn as well.
Gilbert should have gotten the nod as an All-Star pitcher over Blackburn for many reasons. He should also be viewed as a better option in fantasy baseball as well.
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