FantasyPros calculates the consensus average draft position (ADP) for fantasy baseball by pulling ADP from several sources. According to the consensus ADP from FantasyPros, the top 10 players drafted (in order) were Trea Turner, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Juan Soto, Jose Ramirez, Bo Bichette, Gerrit Cole, Bryce Harper, Shohei Ohtani, Corbin Burnes and Mike Trout.
Only two of those players have returned top-10 value according to Rotowire’s Earned Value Calculator for roto scoring: Turner and Ramirez.
Julio Rodriguez made the biggest jump into the top 10, from 200th in consensus ADP to ninth in earned value. Paul Goldschmidt moved from 46th in ADP to second in earned value, while Shane McClanahan moved from 106th to sixth.
Trout, Burnes, Harper and Ohtani all land between 19th and 25th in earned value; Bichette, Guerrero, and Soto fell between 30th and 50th. Below are several players who began the season outside of the top 10 in FantasyPros ADP who have moved into the top 10 in earned value, plus a look at whether or not they can earn top 10 value again next season.
Rafael Devers (3B – BOS): 14.4 FantasyPros Consensus ADP
Rafael Devers is among the top 10 players in home runs, runs, batting average, wOBA, wRC+ and fWAR — major reasons why he is returning top 10 fantasy baseball value.
Many will look at his batting average (.324) and BABIP (.352) as outliers since his career BABIP is .322 and his career batting average is .285, but his numbers this season are eerily similar to his 2019 season when he batted .311.
Devers has an 18% K rate this season, a major improvement over his 27% rate from 2020 and 21% rate from 2021. His line-drive rate is identical to his 2019 rate and an improvement on that rate from the last two years. He increased his flyball rate from 2019 and has a 22% HR/FB rate, slightly over his career average but not astronomical.
Devers has the 21st best barrel rate this year among qualified players and the fifth-highest rate among qualified third basement. His 52.2% hard-hit rate is the best of his career, ninth among qualified players and second among qualified third basemen.
While the BABIP and batting average are likely to regress slightly over the rest of the season, the batted ball and hard contact metrics show a player who has adjusted to the new ball and should continue to hit for serious power.
Devers could definitely return top 10 value next season if he continues to hit for both average and power the rest of this season.
Pete Alonso (1B – NYM): 44.2 FantasyPros Consensus ADP
Pete Alonso is tied with Mike Trout and Giancarlo Stanton at 24 home runs, good for fifth in baseball. He also leads the league in RBIs. He is likely also to reach 40 home runs in a season for the second time in his career.
The first baseman could see an increase in both batting average and home runs the rest of the way thanks to some very good batted ball data underneath the surface stats.
His line drive rate of 20% is the best of his career, but his BABIP matches his career average. With the new ball and the humidors, driving the ball has become extremely important and has led to higher BABIPs and batting averages for players who hit line drives. This has not been reflected in Alonso’s batting average, which means he should experience some positive regression over the next few months.
Additionally, Alonso should see his home run pace increase. His HR/FB rate is 3.4% lower than his career average while increasing his flyball rate from last season. With barrel rate and hard-hit rate each in the top six among qualified first basemen, Alonso possesses elite power.
What will keep him from returning top 10 value year over year is his batting average. His chase rate has never been below 33%, and his overall contact rate has never been above 77%.
If Alonso adjusts for less swing-and-miss in his game, he would vault himself into the same value as someone like Vlad Guerrero Jr. Until then, Alonso is very good, but not a top 10 player.
Julio Rodriguez (OF – SEA): 200.3 FantasyPros Consensus ADP
Julio Rodriguez, according to various projections systems on Fangraphs, is likely to finish with 20 or more home runs, 30 or more steals and a batting average between .270-.280.
Trea Turner and Cedric Mullins were the only players to check each of those boxes last season. This year, Turner is the only one that has returned a similar value on his ADP. Ronald Acuna Jr., Jonathan Villar and Christian Yelich each met those marks in 2019. Jose Ramirez, Starling Marte and Mookie Betts did it in 2018.
But should fantasy managers view Rodriguez the same way we view Turner and Acuna? Here is a comparison of a few important data points between 2021 Julio Rodriguez, 2021 Trea Turner, 2019 Ronald Acuna Jr and 2018 Jose Ramirez.
| BABIP | AVG | BB | K | Barrel | Hardhit | LD% | HR/FB | Chase | Contact | SwStr | |
| ’22 Julio | .345 | .275 | 6.8% | 26.8% | 14.3% | 51% | 17.6% | 18.6% | 36.6% | 69.7% | 15.5% |
| ’21 Trea | .362 | .328 | 6.3% | 17.8% | 7.4% | 46.% | 21.1% | 17.% | 30.7% | 79.2% | 10.2% |
| ’19 Acuna | .337 | .280 | 10.4% | 24.8% | 12.9% | 47.1% | 24.4% | 24.8% | 26.7% | 74.2% | 11.6% |
| ’18 JoRam | .252 | .270 | 15.2% | 11.5% | 6.9% | 34.0% | 20.7% | 16.9% | 22.3% | 87.7% | 4.6% |
In many ways, Rodriguez profiles somewhere in between Turner from ’21 and Acuna from ’19. His walk rate, HR/FB rate and chase rate sit near Turner’s. His K rate and barrel rate are closer to Acuna’s. Where Rodriguez falls short of all three other batters is in important areas that contribute to batting average — line drive rate, chase rate, contact rate and swinging strike rate.
Unless he makes adjustments in the second half to improve in those areas, it may be difficult for him to not only return top 10 value this season but to be worth a top 10 pick next year as well (but he should be very close).
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