SIERA, or Skills Independent ERA, is a sabermetric stat that drills ERA down to what is purely in the pitcher’s control.
SIERA factors in a pitcher’s strikeout, walk, and groundball rates and accounts for the type of balls that are put into play, adjusting for the result.
When attempting to find pitchers who may be outperforming their background metrics or underperforming them, fantasy managers should look to SIERA because it provides the clearest picture of a pitcher’s true skill.
Last week, this column recommended several pitchers to acquire with lower SIERAs than ERAs. This week, the focus will be on pitchers to trade away because their SIERAs are higher than their ERAs.
Marco Gonzales (SEA – SP) 5.16 SIERA
Marco Gonzales has the second-highest SIERA among qualified starters, as well as the second-largest gap among players with a higher SIERA than ERA.
Gonzales has some worrying background metrics that are contributing to a high SIERA including a 5 K/9 rate, a 3.29 BB/9 rate, a 1.44 HR/9 rate, and a .251 BABIP.
SIERA values pitchers who get strikeouts and limit walks, so it is no surprise that Gonzales has such a high SIERA. Additionally, he has the third-worst swinging-strike rate, the ninth-worst called strike rate, and the worst called plus swinging-strike rate (tied with Dakota Hudson).
The lefty also allows the most contact to batters among all qualified starters.
| ERA | SIERA | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | Contact% | SwStr% | CStr% | CSW% |
| 3.29 | 5.16 | 5.03 | 3.29 | 1.44 | 84.5% | 7.6% | 14.5% | 22.2% |
This is an excellent time to start shopping Gonzales for an underperforming bat like Kole Calhoun.
Dakota Hudson (STL – SP) 5.19 SIERA
The highest SIERA among qualified starters belongs to Dakota Hudson. He has the 16th-largest gap among players with a higher SIERA than ERA.
Similar to Marco Gonzales, Hudson lacks strikeouts and walks too many batters. He is also below league average with an 8.6% HR/FB rate, signifying that he has been lucky when it comes to how many home runs he has allowed.
Hudson’s SIERA shows his true skill based on things that are in his control, but also can be predictive. This means that fantasy managers should anticipate significant regression for Hudson in the near future.
| ERA | SIERA | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | Contact% | SwStr% | CStr% | CSW% |
| 4.29 | 5.19 | 4.93 | 4.18 | .64 | 83.4% | 7.2% | 15% | 22.2% |
The righty is the worst among qualified starters at chase, SwStr, CSW, and K/9 rates. Hudson also is among the five worst pitchers at contact rate allowed and BB/9 rate.
Fantasy managers who have not jumped ship yet should consider doing so sooner rather than later.
Tony Gonsolin (LAD – SP) 3.80 SIERA
Perhaps surprisingly, Tony Gonsolin has the largest gap among qualified pitchers with a higher SIERA than ERA.
Part of the reason for this is a league-best 1.54 ERA and a league-low .184 BABIP. Gonsolin also possesses an unsustainable 91.4% left-on-base rate. All of these metrics suggest that regression is coming.
Unlike Hudson or Gonzales, however, Gonsolin’s SIERA would still rank him among the 40 best pitchers if his ERA were to regress to that point.
Also unlike Hudson or Gonzales, Gonsolin strikes out more batters, a major reason why his SIERA sits significantly lower than theirs.
While fantasy managers may not need to worry about Gonsolin regressing to the same degree as other pitchers, this could be a good time to “sell high” on the righty before it is too late.
Other qualified pitchers in the top 10 among those with a higher SIERA than ERA include Sandy Alcantara, Martin Perez, Justin Verlander, Alek Manoah, Miles Mikolas, Logan Gilbert, Julio Urias, and Cole Irvin.
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