Very few pitchers can claim that they have four pitches with negative launch angles, and the only qualified pitcher that can make that claim is Framber Valdez, whose average launch angle for the season is -3.5 degrees.
The other qualified pitchers in the top 10 of lowest launch angles allowed are Logan Webb, Sandy Alcantara, Kyle Wright, Dane Dunning, Brad Keller, German Marquez, Max Fried, Martin Perez, and Shane McClanahan.
It should come as no surprise that all of these pitchers, as well as Valdez, also possess the highest groundball rates in baseball.
Interestingly, five of those pitchers also are among the top 10 in fewest home runs allowed including Fried, Valdez, Alcantara, Perez, and Webb.
Dunning and Marquez have the highest ERAs of the bunch at 4.38 and 5.25 respectively, but they also possess two of the 12 highest HR/FB rates and two of the 10 highest BABIPs among qualified starters.
Today’s column will dig into three of these pitchers and some of the statistics that reflect their dominance.
Framber Valdez (SP – HOU) -3.5-degree LA
Framber Valdez is having an impressive season with a 9-4 record and 17 quality starts in 19 games started.
He holds the lowest average launch angle and the highest groundball rate in baseball, as well as a 14% flyball rate — the lowest in baseball and 10% lower than Logan Webb in second place.
Four of Valdez’s five pitches have a negative launch angle, but his curveball (3-degree launch angle) boasts a 42.9% whiff rate, which is the eighth-best rate among pitchers with 50 plate appearances. His 28% putaway rate on the pitch is 10th best in baseball using the same parameters.
| Pitch Type | # | % | MPH | PA | BAA | xBAA | EV | LA | Whiff% | Putaway% |
| Sinker | 922 | 50.6 | 94 | 239 | 0.276 | 0.276 | 90.3 | -6 | 12.7 | 13 |
| Curveball | 512 | 28.1 | 79.2 | 151 | 0.142 | 0.173 | 86.9 | 3 | 42.9 | 28 |
| Changeup | 165 | 9.1 | 89.1 | 41 | 0.200 | 0.199 | 85.4 | -8 | 19 | 14.7 |
| Cutter | 143 | 7.8 | 83.7 | 41 | 0.128 | 0.165 | 84.2 | -3 | 36.8 | 28.8 |
| 4-Seam Fastball | 81 | 4.4 | 94 | 26 | 0.235 | 0.258 | 84.3 | -3 | 10 | 8 |
According to FantasyPros, Valdez’s average ADP among six fantasy baseball outlets was 126.4, or Round 13.
If he can maintain the success he has been having this season, Valdez could require a much higher draft pick in 2023. Now is the time to try to acquire him, not only in dynasty or keeper leagues, but in redraft as well.
Logan Webb (SP – SF) 3.1-degree LA
Logan Webb is near the top of many of the same lists as Valdez. He is second in average launch angle, he has the second-lowest fly ball rate, the second highest groundball rate, and is 10th in home runs allowed (eight homers in 123.2 IP).
Two of Webb’s four pitches have a negative launch angle: his sinker and changeup. Both pitches have a putaway rate of 20% or more.
Webb does not blow anyone away with speed, but his pitches are still extremely difficult to hit. His fastball, slider, and changeup each have a batting average against under .200 with xBAAs of .245 or lower.
| Pitch Type | # | % | MPH | PA | BAA | xBAA | EV | LA | Whiff% | Putaway% |
| Slider | 635 | 33.3 | 82.5 | 145 | 0.176 | 0.190 | 84.7 | 18 | 30.9 | 17.1 |
| Sinker | 610 | 32 | 92 | 150 | 0.341 | 0.307 | 89.4 | -4 | 15.3 | 21.1 |
| Changeup | 605 | 31.7 | 86.5 | 186 | 0.195 | 0.245 | 88.5 | -3 | 26 | 20 |
| 4-Seam Fastball | 56 | 2.9 | 92.7 | 17 | 0.188 | 0.245 | 91.3 | 12 | 21.6 | 11.8 |
Many fantasy managers drafted Webb this year with the expectation that he could reach nine or more strikeouts per nine innings again this season. That has not been the case, as he is down to 7.5 K/9 this season.
Webb shuffled his pitch usage this season, decreasing his fastball usage by 7% and his sinker usage by 5%, while increasing his slider usage by 5% and his changeup usage by 8%, and eliminating the cutter from his arsenal.
These tweaks have resulted in fewer strikeouts, but a better ERA. Webb will be an interesting and potentially difficult pitcher to rank next year as he continues to evolve his game.
Max Fried (ATL – SP) 8.4-degree LA
Max Fried is another pitcher who has been able to limit opponents’ launch angles while inducing the ninth-best groundball rate among qualified starters, the fifth-lowest flyball rate, and the third fewest home runs (six in 125.1 IP).
Additionally, Fried has allowed the lowest barrel rate to opposing hitters, as well as the eighth-lowest hard-hit rate.
All of these impressive data points have resulted in a career year for the lefty, who has a 10-3 record with 15 quality starts in 20 games, to go along with a 2.73 ERA and the sixth-best K/BB rate in baseball.
Just one of Fried’s pitches, his sinker, has a negative launch angle; however, all of his other pitches have a launch angle of 14 degrees or lower. Three of his pitches have a whiff rate above 29% and four of his pitches have a putaway rate over 20%.
He is one of 10 pitchers who have three pitches of at least 50 PAs, each with a whiff rate and putaway rate above 20% (McClanahan has 4).
| Pitch Type | # | % | MPH | PA | BAA | xBAA | EV | LA | Whiff% | Putaway% |
| 4-Seam Fastball | 617 | 32.5 | 94.3 | 176 | 0.292 | 0.264 | 86.9 | 9 | 15.2 | 15.3 |
| Slider | 423 | 22.3 | 87.4 | 104 | 0.198 | 0.212 | 88.1 | 14 | 29.1 | 21.9 |
| Curveball | 377 | 19.8 | 74.4 | 79 | 0.208 | 0.189 | 84.6 | 14 | 39 | 32.4 |
| Sinker | 245 | 12.9 | 93.8 | 70 | 0.261 | 0.244 | 87.9 | -7 | 17.3 | 21.7 |
| Changeup | 239 | 12.6 | 86.6 | 72 | 0.197 | 0.215 | 77.7 | 7 | 35.4 | 24 |
Fried’s slider, curveball, and changeup are near unhittable, and they will help keep him in the top of the starting pitching ranks into next season.
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