In our “Closer Look” series, we’re examining ambiguous, hard-to-read position groups and offering advice on how to handle them in 2022 fantasy football drafts. In this installment, Mike Fanelli takes a closer look at the WR position for the Jacksonville Jaguars.
- A Closer Look at the Chiefs Wide Receivers
- A Closer Look at the Falcons Running Backs
- A Closer Look at the Cardinals Wide Receivers
- A Closer Look at the Dolphins Running Backs
- A Closer Look at the Patriots Running Backs
- A Closer Look at the Broncos Wide Receivers
- A Closer Look at the Patriots Wide Receivers
Primary Contributors
While there were several blockbuster NFL moves this offseason, no transaction was more talked about than Kirk signing with the Jaguars. He signed a four-year deal worth up to $84 million. In 2021, Kirk had the best year of his career with 77 receptions for 982 receiving yards and five touchdowns.
The veteran Jones has bounced around the NFL during his career. He started his journey with the Cincinnati Bengals, then spent five years with the Detroit Lions before signing with the Jaguars last offseason. While some had high expectations for Jones, he ended last year with 832 receiving yards and only four touchdowns, his lowest output since his rookie season.
After falling out of favor with the Buffalo Bills, Jones got traded to the Las Vegas Raiders during the 2019 season. In 2.5 years with the Raiders, Jones had 81 receptions for 847 receiving yards and two touchdowns. While he wasn’t a consistent fantasy player, Jones did make a few critical plays for the Raiders last season. Those plays led to the Jaguars signing him in March, to a three-year contract worth up to $24 million.
Shenault was a second-round pick by the Jaguars in the 2020 NFL Draft. He showed flashes as a rookie, totaling 600 receiving yards on 58 receptions, and scored five touchdowns. Many expected a breakout sophomore season with the addition of Urban Meyer. Instead, Shenault struggled last year. While he had 619 receiving yards on 63 receptions, Shenault had zero touchdowns and caught only 63% of his targets.
Other Potential Contributors
The former first-round pick by the Minnesota Vikings has bounced around the NFL in his six-year career. However, last year was arguably his best season. He had 33 receptions on 51 targets for 434 receiving yards in only 12 games. Treadwell was, at times, Trevor Lawrence‘s most reliable weapon. While he re-signed with the Jaguars this offseason, it was only a one-year deal with little protection. Thus, Treadwell will have to earn his roster spot in training camp.
While the Kirk contract got plenty of media attention this offseason, let’s not forget the Jaguars signed Agnew to a three-year contract worth up to $21 million last offseason. The former Lions return specialist has 40 receptions in his career, with 24 coming last season in Jacksonville. Surprisingly, he had two top-30 weekly finishes last year. Hopefully, Agnew won’t play much of a role on offense this year after the additions made in the offseason.
Analysis
The Jacksonville wide receiver core was a complete disaster last season. Lawrence struggled to build chemistry with the entire unit. While Treadwell and Agnew were Lawrence’s go-to targets at one point during last season, that won’t be the case in 2022.
Of the four primary contributors, fantasy players need to only focus on Kirk. Marvin Jones, Zay Jones, and Shenault are names to watch early in the season and could become waiver wire targets. However, none of them should get drafted in standard-sized leagues. If you are adamant to draft one of these three receivers, Marvin Jones is the safest option, while Shenault offers the most potential upside.
Jones has four top-36 PPR finishes over the past five years, including a top-10 finish in 2017. He finished in the top 35 last year, ending the season as the WR26.
As a former second-round pick, the Jaguars invested meaningful draft capital in Shenault. While his 2021 season was disappointing, the entire Jacksonville offense was awful. Hopefully, the Jaguars use Shenault in a Deebo Samuel-type role this year. However, that doesn’t mean fantasy players should draft Shenault. But be ready to add him off waivers if he earns such a role.
How to Value These Players
According to FantasyPros ADP, Kirk and the other wide receivers have dramatically different ADPs.
Kirk has an ADP of 106.6 as the WR43. By comparison, Marvin Jones has an ADP of 210.0 as the WR70. Shenault has an ADP of 224.0 as the WR83, while Zay Jones has an ADP of 298.0 as the WR109. Therefore, Kirk is the only Jacksonville wide receiver currently getting drafted in standard-sized 12-team leagues.
However, should that be the case? Without a doubt, yes!
Last year Jones led the team with 119 targets, 20 more than any other player. He had a 20.3% target share last season. Kirk had an 18.1% target share last year in Arizona by comparison. More importantly, Kirk averaged 2.02 PPR fantasy points per target last season. If he sees the same 119 targets Jones did last year at that average, Kirk will score 240.4 fantasy points in 2022. He would have been the WR17 last season, scoring 240.4 fantasy points.
Lawrence should also take a massive step forward this season. Not only will he have his first full offseason in the NFL to get better, but he will have a solid head coach on the sidelines.
Remember, Meyer had Lawrence and Gardner Minshew splitting first-team reps during the offseason last year until the Jaguars traded Minshew to the Philadelphia Eagles for a conditional sixth-round pick. No one thought for a second that Minshew had a chance to be the Week 1 starter. Yet, Meyer was determined to treat the Jaguars like a college football team and make Lawrence “earn” his starting role.
Now Lawrence will have Doug Pederson on the sidelines. While he isn’t an elite coach like Bill Belichick, Andy Reid, or Sean McVay, Pederson will provide stability and professionalism that Meyer didn’t offer last year.
Fantasy players should feel comfortable drafting Kirk at his current ADP. As the WR42 off the board, Kirk is getting drafted behind Tyler Lockett (WR35), Robert Woods (WR38) and Brandon Aiyuk (WR41). I would take Kirk over all three of those wide receivers. The Jaguars will throw the ball plenty this year as they will be in negative game script most of the time.
Furthermore, they didn’t pay Kirk all that money to block for the running game. Pederson and the rest of the coaching staff will find the best ways to get Kirk the ball consistently in the offense. Fantasy players can feel comfortable drafting Kirk as their WR3 as he offers a strong mix of upside and a safe floor.
The remaining trio of wide receivers are not ideal draft targets in standard-sized leagues. However, all three could have value at some point this season. Keep your eye on their snap count and target share each week. If one of the three separates himself from the others, he could become a solid flex option during bye weeks.
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Mike Fanelli is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @Mike_NFL2.
