In our “Closer Look” series, we’re examining ambiguous, hard-to-read position groups and offering advice on how to handle them in 2022 fantasy football drafts. In this installment, Mike Fanelli takes a closer look at the RB position for the Houston Texans.
- A Closer Look at the Chiefs Wide Receivers
- A Closer Look at the Falcons Running Backs
- A Closer Look at the Cardinals Wide Receivers
- A Closer Look at the Dolphins Running Backs
- A Closer Look at the Patriots Running Backs
- A Closer Look at the Broncos Wide Receivers
- A Closer Look at the Patriots Wide Receivers
- A Closer Look at the Jaguars Wide Receivers
Primary Contributors
Mack was once a productive running back in the NFL. He had over 1,000 rushing yards in 2019 as the starter for the Indianapolis Colts. However, he suffered a torn Achilles 11 snaps into the 2020 season. Over the past two years, Mack has only 32 rushing attempts in seven games.
The veteran has bounced around the NFL during his nine-year career. Burkhead has never rushed for over 430 yards in any year of his career, averaging 203.1 rushing yards per season. Furthermore, he has a career average of 3.1 yards per rushing attempt.
While many expected Houston to use an early-round draft pick on a running back, the Texans waited until the fourth round to select Pierce. The former Florida Gator averaged 5.5 yards per rushing attempt in his college career. Pierce had a career-high 16 touchdowns last season on only 119 touches.
Other Potential Contributors
When the Denver Broncos used a third-round pick on Freeman in the 2018 NFL Draft, many were excited about the former Oregon Duck. However, Freeman got outproduced by Phillip Lindsay as a rookie. He has under 2,000 scrimmage yards and only nine touchdowns in his four-year NFL career.
Ogunbowale has been a career journeyman. He has never had more than 43 rushing attempts any year in his career. Furthermore, Ogunbowale has four scrimmage touchdowns during his five-year career, with two coming last year.
The former TCU Horned Frog went undrafted in 2020. Anderson then signed with the Dallas Cowboys before getting waived in September. He signed with the Colts a few days later and was part of their practice squad until August 2021, when he was released. Anderson then signed with the Texans’ practice squad in December 2021. However, he has never received a regular-season rushing attempt.
Analysis
While there are six potential options in the Houston backfield, fantasy players can ignore half of them. Freeman, Ogunbowale, and Anderson are not fantasy-relevant. Even in your deeper dynasty leagues, all three should be on the waiver wire. Furthermore, two of the three might not make the final roster. Ogunbowale has the best chance to make the final roster, given his experience on special teams and ability to serve as the pass-catching running back in a pinch.
So of the three primary contributors, which has the most appeal for fantasy players?
The last time Mack had any fantasy value was in 2019. He was the RB22 that year, averaging 13 PPR fantasy points per game. However, Mack has done very little since then. He averaged a career-low 3.6 yards per rushing attempt last year despite playing behind a talented offensive line and only playing in six games. Furthermore, Mack has never played a consistent role in the passing game. He had a career-high 21 receptions as a rookie. Mack has only 36 receptions over the past four years.
Burkhead has bounced around the NFL in his career. Last year was his first season with the Texans. While he played only 37% of the snaps, Burkhead had a 34.1% backfield share rate and 19 red-zone touches. More importantly, Burkhead finished as a top-24 PPR running back in 26.7% of his games last season. While that’s impressive, his main competition for touches in the backfield was David Johnson. Whether Mack is an upgrade over Johnson is debatable. However, the addition of the rookie Pierce throws a wet blanket on Burkhead’s upside.
Despite his fourth-round draft capital, Pierce was a popular pick in rookie drafts. While he spent four years at Florida, Pierce had under 375 touches in his career. Derrick Henry had 395 rushing attempts in his final year at Alabama by comparison. The lack of miles on his legs means Pierce has plenty left in the tank for the Texans. More importantly, he was productive despite a limited workload. Pierce had only two games last season with over nine rushing attempts. Yet, he had 54 or more rushing yards in over half his games last season.
How to Value These Players
According to FantasyPros ADP, all three Houston running backs have an ADP outside the top 45 running backs and the top 130 picks.
Pierce is first off the board with an ADP of 133.0 as the RB46. Next is Mack, with an ADP of 161.8 as the RB54. Way down the draft board is Burkhead, with an ADP of 254.3 as the RB77.
There are two scenarios with this backfield.
1) All three play a role and make each running back hard to trust as a fantasy starter.
This scenario is very possible. The Texans could lean on Pierce and Mack on early downs while using Burkhead as the third-down back. In this scenario, Burkhead would have the most value as the Texans will spend most of the year in negative game script. However, fantasy players should hope this scenario doesn’t play out.
2) One of the running backs emerges as the featured guy.
While far from a slam dunk, this scenario is possible. Pierce is the most likely to accomplish this feat of the three running backs. Mack and Burkhead have a combined 14 years of NFL experience. However, the duo has combined for two seasons with over 625 scrimmage yards. Furthermore, Mack has 37 touches over the past two years, while Burkhead had one game with over 47 rushing yards last season.
Fantasy players have to make a decision before their draft. Do you want part of the Houston backfield? The Texans will be one of the worst teams in the NFL this season. Furthermore, they ran the ball only 420 times last year, the 10th-fewest attempts in the league.
If the answer is yes, you want to target Pierce or Burkhead at their current ADP, depending on your draft strategy. Fantasy players deploying a Zero-RB strategy should target Burkhead with one of their final draft picks. The Texans will likely lean on him early in the season as Pierce gets up to the speed of the NFL game.
However, if you are going with a best-player-available strategy or value high-upside running backs, grab Pierce at his ADP. If any running back emerges from this backfield and produces consistently for fantasy teams, it will be the rookie.
While Mack’s ADP is over two rounds later than Pierce, I want nothing to do with the former Colts running back. Mack was an average fantasy running back in Indianapolis, even with a talented offensive line, despite being given the featured role. Since tearing his Achilles, Mack has spent more time on the sideline in street clothes than on the field. Last season, Mack was repeatedly a healthy game-day scratch for the Colts despite their best efforts to move him at the trade deadline.
Could Mack bounce back in Houston? Sure, anything is possible. But I’m either targeting the upside of Pierce or the potential cheap PPR bye-week filler option of Burkhead instead.
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Mike Fanelli is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @Mike_NFL2.
