Our consensus average draft position (ADP) is valuable for a couple reasons. Not only is ADP a great barometer for where players are going across the web, but typically, the public has a fairly good pulse on how to properly price players, especially late in the preseason. This means that going against ADP too often can result in a team that underperforms. However, there are some athletes who just seem to be getting taken too high and are even grabbed over players that may be better.
As we saw last year, many players in the first couple rounds ended up failing to meet expectations, whether due to injury, poor performance or other factors. Christian McCaffrey, Dalvin Cook, Derrick Henry, Saquon Barkley, Calvin Ridley, DeAndre Hopkins, A.J. Brown, Terry McLaurin and Allen Robinson were all taken within the top 12 at their respective positions last year and didn’t deliver top-12 value. Who will those names be this year? Read on to see which studs our featured pundits are hesitating to draft in 2022.
Please note that the following list of players isn’t a “bust” list. This is more about focusing on which players are overvalued due to draft inefficiencies as opposed to which players have the downside potential to completely fall flat. Almost all of these players will likely present good value if they’re taken at a discount.
Q1. What RB inside the top 15 in our half-PPR RB ADP should fantasy managers avoid the most at their current draft price and why?
Javonte Williams (DEN): Consensus ADP – RB9 | 16th Overall
“The Broncos re-signed Melvin Gordon in free agency, ultimately halting the certainty of a Javonte Williams second-year breakout and fantasy RB1 season. Because Gordon showed no signs of ceding the No. 1 RB role to Williams last season, ranking eighth in both PFF rushing grade (83.4) and forced missed tackles (45) while compiling 231 touches (16th). Williams is going to split work with another capable back in Gordon, which is precisely what new head coach Nathaniel Hackett desires. Many Javonte stans will harp on the touchdown upside of Williams playing in a better situation than last season, but the red zone role between the two backs was nearly split in 2021 with a slight lean towards the veteran. The wide margin in average draft position (ADP) between Williams (RB9) and Gordon (RB33) needs to be much closer. ”
– Andrew Erickson (FantasyPros)
Alvin Kamara (NO): Consensus ADP – RB11 | 17th Overall
“Alvin Kamara’s ADP might make more sense if he were younger, if Drew Brees hadn’t retired, and if not for a possible suspension following Kamara’s arrest for assault in Las Vegas on Pro Bowl weekend. Kamara is entering his age-27 season, so he’s past prime by RB standards. Kamara’s efficiency nosedived in his first season without Drew Brees as his quarterback — 3.7 yards per carry, with career lows in receptions and receiving yardage per game. Although there’s no disciplinary timetable yet, it’s expected that the league will suspend Kamara for six games at some point. Oh, and the Saints’ once-mighty offensive line is slipping, too. The Saints ranked 27th in Football Outsiders’ primary run-blocking metric last season, and PFF puts New Orleans’ O-line 21st in its preseason offensive line rankings.”
– Pat Fitzmaurice (FantasyPros)
David Montgomery (CHI): Consensus ADP – RB15 | 30th Overall
“David Montgomery’s fantasy prowess has relied heavily upon health and a volume of opportunity. For example, he had 50 red zone touches last year, fifth-most among running backs. Even with all those touches, he’s been middling and inefficient, averaging just 0.71 fantasy points per opportunity. Without another big investment of touches in 2022, he will struggle to match the value of his current RB15 spot in half-PPR RB ADP.”
– Matt De Lima (Sports Illustrated)
Austin Ekeler (LAC): Consensus ADP – RB2 | 2nd Overall
“Austin Ekeler. Ekeler is someone I love as a player but never seem to have enough of due to his cost. This year certainly is no different, as he is currently being drafted in the top three. I suppose finishing as the RB2 will do that, and well warranted. However, he won’t be on many of my teams at that price, as his phenomenal red-zone efficiency and 20 total touchdowns will be difficult to match in 2022. Another year older, and a bigger-bodied Isaiah Spiller in the mix, I would be more comfortable with Ekeler at where his ADP was last season (12.5) as opposed to where it is now. ”
– Rich Piazza (Fantasy Shed)
Q2. What WR inside the top 15 in our half-PPR WR ADP should fantasy managers avoid the most at their current draft price and why?
Tyreek Hill (MIA): Consensus ADP – WR8 | 20th Overall
“Tyreek Hill posted a career-low in yards after the catch per reception (4.3, 42nd) and yards per route run (2.14, 11th) in his final season in KC, creating some concern that 28-year old might be slowing down. Hill was traded to the Miami Dolphins this offseason, but it’s undeniable that going from Patrick Mahomes to Tua Tagovailoa is a massive downgrade for Hill. Tagovailoa has yet to show that he can properly fuel a fantasy WR1, so it’s hard to expect Hill to deliver a top-10 season with a lesser passer in a run-heavy offense led by former 49ers’ run game coordinator, Mike McDaniel. All things considered, give me Jaylen Waddle at WR13 ADP over Hill at WR9. Waddle was superior averaging 14.8 half-points per game versus Hill’s 12.7 in the second half of 2021.”
– Andrew Erickson (FantasyPros)
Diontae Johnson (PIT): Consensus ADP – WR14 | 38th Overall
“With 169 targets (second-most) on 594 routes run (first) last year, Diontae Johnson was a shoe-in to be a top-10 fantasy WR. His WR9 finish should’ve come as no surprise, but where he goes from here remains to be seen. Johnson had 23 red zone targets (eighth), an unusually high number for a 5-10 receiver, but it does speak to his ability to get open. This year, the Steelers will rely on QB Mitch Trubisky with Ben Roethlisberger retired. It wouldn’t shock me to see rookie receivers George Pickens and Calvin Austin III earn lots of playing time to siphon away targets from Johnson and Chase Claypool.”
– Matt De Lima (Sports Illustrated)
Jaylen Waddle (MIA): Consensus ADP – WR13 | 39th Overall
“Jaylen Waddle didn’t take much of an ADP hit despite the trade that brought Tyreek Hill to the Dolphins. Waddle averaged 9.8 yards per catch last year, and his average depth of target was 7.1 yards. Hill’s yearly aDOT has consistently been over 10 yards, and there’s little question which receiver is going to be running more deep routes for Miami this season. With Waddle pigeonholed as a possession receiver, he shouldn’t be going off the board as a high-end WR2.”
– Pat Fitzmaurice (FantasyPros)
DK Metcalf (SEA): Consensus ADP – WR15 | 42nd Overall
“DK Metcalf. Metcalf is still going in the top 15, despite the fact that he doesn’t have Russell Wilson at quarterback. I just don’t have much confidence in Geno Smith, Drew Lock or whoever else they bring in at this time, to get Metcalf to the type of production as last season. With the quarterback play being what we expect, and the Seahawks being a run-first offense, I may pass on Metcalf at his current ADP. ”
– Rich Piazza (Fantasy Shed)
Thanks to the experts for sharing their advice! For more of their insight, be sure to follow each pundit on Twitter (click their names above) and visit their respective sites.
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