Let’s take a look at players you should think twice before drafting this fantasy football season.
Rankings noted using FantasyPros half-PPR Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR) and Consensus ADP.
6 Players You Should Avoid Drafting
Placing Aaron Rodgers in the “players to avoid” category feels like grabbing at low-hanging fruit, but it’s just so obvious his fantasy ceiling is going to be hindered this year without his No. 1 wide receiver, Davante Adams.
The one game the Packers signal-caller played without his No. 1 receiver in 2021 was his third-worst fantasy finish of the season. And Rodgers’ only healthy season-long fantasy finish outside the top-8 came in a season where Adams missed four games.
The dynamic duo’s chemistry was never more apparent in or near the red zone, with Rodgers-Adams combining for 64 touchdowns – double-digits on average – since 2016, 23 more than the next closest duo (Patrick Mahomes and Tyreek Hill). Thirty-three percent of Rodgers touchdowns have gone to Adams over that period.
Green Bay has bolstered their wide receiver room through free agency and the draft, but it’s still improbable that they can make up for Adams’ production – especially in the red zone. Without Adams, it’s hard to buy Rodgers as a top-12 fantasy quarterback in 2022.
David Montgomery finished as the RB12 and RB6 in fantasy points per game in each of the last two seasons, surpassing expectations. The Bears’ receiving weapons are depleted outside of Darnell Mooney and Cole Kmet, so there’s an easy pathway for plenty of check downs weekly. With Fields under center, he saw 4.75 targets per game, which would be a new career-high if that repeats this upcoming season. The problem for Montgomery is the new regime has no previous ties to him. He’s seen an 80-90% opportunity share over the last two seasons, which has helped fuel his fantasy stock. Still, new offensive coordinator Luke Getsy comes from a system in Green Bay that hasn’t pushed Aaron Jones over the 60% opportunity share mark since 2020. It’s conceivable Montgomery will lose snaps on early downs to Khalil Herbert or Darrynton Evans and routes to Trestan Ebner. If that comes to fruition, he’s better viewed as a high-end RB3 with low-end RB2 upside.
DeAndre Hopkins wasn’t completely washed last season, but his days as an elite alpha wide receiver could be over. Last season he was the WR21 in fantasy points per game as he logged his first season since 2017 outside the top 20 in targets per snap. Hopkins only commanded a 20.5% target share which was good for 35th among wideouts. While the suspension should ensure that Hopkins will return fully healthy, it’s not a sure thing that we don’t see his numbers decline further in 2022. He ranked 31st in yards per route run last season (minimum 50 targets, per PFF).
The 32-year old wideout has made his hay in fantasy because of his “ability” to find the end zone 24 times since the start of 2020, but it’s something that just isn’t sustainable in the long term. Based on Thielen’s targets and yardage totals, his total TD number should be closer to 16.
Justin Jefferson is an ascending rocketship that will only see his TDs rise entering Year 3, most likely coming at the detriment of Thielen. Not to mention, AT’s age may finally be catching up to him after he posted his lowest PFF receiving grade and yards per route run since he first became a starter back in 2016.
Allen Robinson slots in alongside Cooper Kupp as the Rams’ number two receiving option after a down year with the Bears in 2021. In his final season in the Windy City, Robinson’s yards per route dipped to a career-low of 1.13, which ranked 79th out of 90 qualifying wide receivers with 50 or more targets. Even pigeonholing Robinson in the Odell Beckham role from last season isn’t as lucrative as it seems. In Weeks 12-18 last year, Beckham saw an 18.7% target share which would have ranked 44th among wide receivers. He also averaged 12.0 fantasy points per game which placed him as the WR31 in weekly fantasy production among wide receivers that started three or more games in that span. If his efficiency bounces back to previous levels, Robinson is a WR3 with WR2 upside.
Since his legendary stretch run in 2019, Tyler Higbee has been a ho-hum option in fantasy football. Over the last two seasons, he’s finished as the TE13 and TE20 in fantasy points per game. His yards per route run dipped to 1.23 (25th amongst tight ends) last year, which isn’t a trend you want to see out of a fringe (at best) top 12-15 option at tight end. With Allen Robinson in town and Van Jefferson returning to compete for targets behind Cooper Kupp, the arrow for Higbee is pointing down. He’s nothing more than a streaming option in 2022.
FantasyPros Staff Consensus 2022 Redraft Fantasy Football Rankings
If you want to dive deeper into fantasy football, check out our award-winning slate of Fantasy Football Tools as you navigate your season. From our Start/Sit Assistant – which provides your optimal lineup based on accurate consensus projections – to our Waiver Wire Assistant, which allows you to quickly see which available players will improve your team and how much – we’ve got you covered this fantasy football season.
