Let’s take a look at players on Andrew Erickson’s 2022 Do Not Draft List.
- 6 Players Pat Fitzmaurice Will Never Draft Again
- 6 Players Derek Brown Will Never Draft Again
- 8 Players Matthew Freedman Will Never Draft Again
Rankings noted using FantasyPros half-PPR Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR) and Consensus ADP.
6 Players You Should Avoid Drafting
Ezekiel Elliott‘s main fantasy appeal is the touchdown opportunity he will see in a high-powered offense, coming off another season with poor rushing efficiency marks. The Dallas Cowboys running back finished fifth-worst in PFF’s elusive rating (25.0) and averaged fewer fantasy points per game than in 2020 (14.6 versus 15.4) in a better offensive situation. There is a caveat with Zeke’s inefficient rushing: He reportedly played with a torn PCL last season.
However, history doesn’t necessarily indicate that Elliott is in for a significant comeback in 2022 based on running backs that have had similar careers.
Steven Jackson, Walter Payton and Clinton Portis profile closest to Elliott based on their workloads and age, per Stathead.com. Each running back totaled over 1,800 touches before their age-27 season.
But the feedback was negative, with each running back seeing a dip in average PPR points per game (1.34) and total fantasy points (-18). And that came with each of them still seeing 370-plus touches on the season.
Elliott hit a career-low in total touches (284) and touches per game last season (16.7) — nearly three fewer than in 2020.
Dallas has every right to feed Zeke to their heart’s desire with an out in his contract at the end of the season. But they are also in the business of winning games and understand that Elliott breaking down at the end of last season did not help the offense.
Meanwhile, backup running back Tony Pollard quietly averaged 11.3 touches — three more than the year prior — and flashed elite rushing ability as PFF’s second-highest-graded rusher.
I hate to be the one to bury an older running back as washed, as that burned me last season somewhat with the likes of James Conner and Leonard Fournette. However, I am not overly convinced that Elliott will be a volume monster in 2022 after the team dialed back his usage while Pollard continued to impress at every opportunity he received.
And even if Elliott’s efficiency increases slightly after a lackluster season, the Cowboys’ offensive line might mitigate any of those benefits if they take a step back with a plethora of moving pieces.
If Zeke follows in the same path as the previous backs I’ve mentioned, he’s looking at 235 fantasy points (low-end RB1 last season) if he plays a full slate of games. But his points per game fall in the back-end RB2 range at RB22, averaging 13.5 points per game.
Chances are that Elliott will probably beat his ADP because he is an iron man and doesn’t miss games. He’s missed just one game due to injury over his NFL career.
But even the greatest Zeke fans will admit the ride for him to finish as RB10-12 hardly will feel smooth when he’s hanging middling RB2 production most weeks. He’s finished as a top-12 fantasy RB1 in just 35% of his games the past two seasons. Elliott won’t end up being a true difference-maker at this stage in his career, and the cost of drafting him over league-winning WRs in the middle rounds is something I can’t justify.
Keep in mind that 13.5 PPR points per game equated to the WR29 last season.
And if the sole argument for drafting Zeke is touchdowns (valid argument), why not just draft Josh Jacobs instead? Or guys like Antonio Gibson, Elijah Mitchell, Damien Harris and David Montgomery, who all finished as RB1s at a similar percentage (greater than 32%) in 2021?
Despite being an entrenched workhorse, David Montgomery finished as a top-24 running back in fewer than half of his contests last season (46%). Former sixth-rounder Khalil Herbert was a top-12 running back in two of his five games last season when he received at least a 50% snap share.
Just don’t draft David Montgomery. Projected volume is the only reason he’s going where his ADP is, but a new coaching staff could approach the backfield differently. In my heart of hearts, I think Herbert is the better, more explosive back. Monty finished outside the top 24 in more than half of his games last season. His 2022 ADP hits inside the top-20 RBs. No thanks.
Sammy Watkins‘ fantasy points per game over the last four seasons are as follows: 9.5, 8.0, 7.0 and 5.2. Not the direction you want to be going after joining his third team in three seasons.
ESPN’s Rob Demovsky said that based on the investment the Packers gave Watkins – $350,000 signing bonus as part of a one-year deal – he’s hardly a lock to even make the Week 1 roster.
Deshaun Watson will likely miss a significant portion if not all of the 2022 season. Without Watson or Mayfield (who is officially a Carolina Panther), Cooper is left with Jacoby Brissett. Although Brissett has plenty of experience and can prove to be serviceable, he is a significant downgrade compared to Dak Prescott. So if Cooper only managed to finish as WR27 in 15 games with Prescott, it’s hard to be optimistic about him as the Browns WR1 or your fantasy WR2.
Poor Kenny Golladay. The New York Giants‘ prized offseason acquisition failed to score a single touchdown with his new team despite seeing 13 end-zone targets.
What do Kenny Golladay and James Bond #007 have in common? pic.twitter.com/9KDnBy486y
— Andrew Erickson™ (@AndrewErickson_) January 28, 2022
It was the most end-zone targets of any player to go scoreless this season.
We have an extremely large sample size of Golladay catching touchdowns at the NFL level, though — he led the NFL with 11 receiving touchdowns in 2019. So the big-bodied wideout has nowhere to go but up in 2022.
However, entering his age 29-season after finishing dead last in separation rate in 2021 (0th percentile), there’s a chance that Golladay is just totally cooked at this point.
It’d be one thing if Golladay got a some massive upgrade at quarterback this year as a reason to buy back in, but the fact that it is still Daniel Jones — along with a new coaching staff/management that did not sign him to his mega-deal — are major red flags.
WRs with Golladay’ s archetype don’t typically age well. So consider me out this year, and from here on out.
“Collin Johnson is severely outplaying Kenny Golladay…There’s a guy with his same body type running circles around him.” – @PLeonardNYDN on the latest A Good Football Show
— Ben Cummins (@BenCumminsFF) August 10, 2022
Fantasy football doesn’t have to be complicated. And neither does fading Adam Thielen, who failed to finish as a top-20 fantasy wide receiver in over half of his games for the second straight season.
The 32-year-old wideout has made his hay in fantasy because of his “ability” to find the end zone 24 times since the start of 2020, but it’s just not sustainable in the long term. Based on Thielen’s targets and yardage totals, his total TD number should be closer to 16.
Justin Jefferson is an ascending rocketship who will only see his TDs rise entering Year 3, most likely coming at the detriment of Thielen. Dalvin Cook is long overdue for positive touchdown regression. Not to mention, AT’s age may finally catch up to him after he posted his lowest PFF receiving grade and yards per route run since he first became a starter in 2016.
With a slew of ankle injuries from last season also foreshadowing more potential issues for Thielen in 2022, the Vikings wide receiver has a plethora of red flags that suggest staying away entirely.
FantasyPros Staff Consensus 2022 Redraft Fantasy Football Rankings
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