Our analysts are here to share a few of the running backs they are avoiding this fantasy football draft season. And be sure to check out their full list of players to avoid as part of our 2022 Fantasy Football Draft Kit.
Rankings noted using FantasyPros half-PPR Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR) and Consensus ADP.
5 Fantasy Football Quarterbacks to Avoid
Russell Wilson (DEN)
ECR QB10 | ADP QB11
As a University of Wisconsin grad, I’m a longtime Russell Wilson enthusiast. I have plenty of company on that, and the trade that sent Wilson to Denver has a lot of people excited about Wilson’s 2022 prospects. Maybe the Broncos will finally let Russ cook.
Perhaps Wilson’s greatest attribute is his escapability. He’s been so good at spinning out of trouble and keeping plays alive.
We didn’t see many of those Houdini-esque escapes from Wilson last season, and I wonder if we’ll see fewer such plays now that he’s entering his mid-30s. Denver may indeed be a much better ecosystem for Russ than Seattle was last year. It’s also possible that lingering effects from a gruesome finger injury were largely responsible for Wilson’s downturn last year. But I’m worried that a less mobile Russ will be a less effective Russ.
– Pat Fitzmaurice
Kyler Murray (ARI)
ECR QB5 | ADP QB5
Kyler Murray played 14 games last year, and was banged up in some he did play. He also suffered an injury in 2020 that he played through that clearly zapped him of his deep throws for a stretch. His smaller frame makes him a bigger injury risk. Murray’s rush YPC fell from 6.2 to 4.8 and he’ll clearly miss his alpha WR DeAndre Hopkins, who will miss the first six games due to a PED suspension in 2022. If I want a rushing QB, I’ll draft Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts or Trey Lance late. Otherwise, I’d rather have “safe” guys like Tom Brady, Matthew Stafford and Joe Burrow over Murray.
– Joe Pisapia
Trevor Lawrence (JAC)
ECR QB18 | ADP QB19
Even when I find myself waiting on quarterbacks, I’ll happily skip over Trevor Lawrence in drafts. Yes, the Urban Meyer experience was painful for everyone involved, including Lawrence, but it’s difficult to envision an upside scenario for him this season despite Meyer being jettisoned. Last year among quarterbacks with 200 or more dropbacks, he finished with the 11th-lowest big-time throw rate and the sixth-lowest adjusted completion rate (per PFF). So even projecting a step forward only likely puts him in the middle of the road in those categories.
The return of Travis Etienne and the signing of Christian Kirk will help Lawrence, but these two players aren’t enough to raise him from the mid to low-end QB2 doldrums. In addition, the rest of the projected starters are frightening, with Zay Jones, Marvin Jones and Evan Engram expected to play meaningful snaps at Lawrence’s side.
– Derek Brown
Dak Prescott (DAL)
ECR QB9 | ADP QB7
With their backs up against the salary cap, the Dallas Cowboys didn’t have an offseason to remember for Dak Prescott‘s 2022 fantasy prospects. They gave up Amari Cooper and lost two key starting offensive pieces on the offensive line in La’el Collins and Connor Williams for little return.
They did re-sign Dalton Schultz and Michael Gallup, but early reports on Gallup indicate it will be close whether he’s ready for Week 1 coming off the torn ACL. Dallas’ biggest move in free agency and the NFL Draft to combat their losses was signing former Steelers wide receiver James Washington, drafting Jalen Tolbert in Round 3, and selecting an offensive tackle project, Tyler Smith, in Round 1.
With many other quarterbacks benefiting from better team offseasons, Prescott has fallen in my rankings well past his QB9 ADP, making it less likely I draft him. He finished as the QB9 last year in points per game, and I’d argue his situation — aside from health — isn’t as ideal as it was a season ago. His rushing also hit career-low numbers in 2021.
– Andrew Erickson
Derek Carr (LV)
ECR QB14 | ADP QB13
Nothing against Carr, but some people are acting as if he’s a star quarterback, and I don’t want to buy that bridge.
The bull case for Carr is that the Raiders added HC Josh McDaniels and WR Davante Adams this offseason and he has improved over the past four years (68.7% completion rate, 7.7 adjusted yards per attempt). The bear case is that McDaniels has had limited success without QB Tom Brady, Adams hasn’t caught passes from Carr since their 2013 college days at Fresno State, and former HC Jon Gruden’s scheme might have had more to do with Carr’s recent success than any inherent development on the part of the quarterback.
– Matthew Freedman
FantasyPros Staff Consensus 2022 Redraft Fantasy Football Rankings
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