As a natural-born citizen of the U.S., I have grown accustomed to a life of abundance. No one throughout my lineage has succumbed to malnourishment since the Irish Potato Famine. Our percussive heartbeat as a nation feverishly pumps the blood of liberty through cheeseburger-clogged arteries. Scarcity is as foreign to us as Vegemite, haggis or snacking on roasted crickets. I am here to tell you that scarcity is as real as a heart attack, especially when considering the tight end position in fantasy football.
If given the opportunity to siphon all of the valued resources on Earth, such as hoarding multiple “fossil fuel” TEs, it would be thoroughly un-American to abdicate that responsibility. There are a handful of TEs whom I deem “must-have” commodities. Fantasy football isn’t usually a zero-sum game (but it can be). Of the 13 players who averaged more than 10 PPR points per game at the TE position in 2021, only seven averaged more than 12 PPG.
Four of those TEs moved into outright startable flex territory at more than 14 PPG: Mark Andrews, Travis Kelce, Rob Gronkowski and George Kittle. TEs 8-17 were only separated by 1.5 PPG, so it seems more than a fair argument that I want no part of that dead zone of mediocrity and ambiguity.
I have projected a total of five TEs to average more than 14 PPG in 2022, with at least one coming as a complete shock to the consensus:
The old guard is not ready to relinquish his crown as the preeminent TE to roster in fantasy football. 2021 was his first season as something other than TE1 since 2017. His “ho-hum” 134/92/1,125/9 campaign was still firmly TE2 behind Mark Andrews’ massive breakout. There isn’t a single fantasy manager that would be disappointed with 16.4 PPG. Tyreek Hill has taken his talents to South Beach, leaving a chasm in the Kansas City receiving corps. The slot position will be an interesting mix of Kelce, JuJu Smith-Schuster and uber-talented rookie Skyy Moore. Travis Kelce will occasionally romp on the perimeter, next to Marquez Valdes-Scantling and incumbent speedster Mecole Hardman.
The 33-year-old Kelce is as much a traditional tight end as I am a gymnast. I trust Andy Reid to ramp up his target share through an increased number of specialized play packages, especially when the Chiefs are in scoring position. It is natural and understandable to loosen our grip on Kelce in dynasty formats, but 2022 is far from the twilight of Kelce’s illustrious career as an elite pass catcher in an exciting offense. Patrick Mahomes has at least five more seasons of his spectacular prime. Kelce can be a top-tier producer at tight end well into his late-thirties, a la Jason Witten.
New TE1, who dis? Time will tell us whether the talented Baltimore receiver can be the absolute best tight end in football, but it is clear he will be a force at the top of the position as long as he is healthy. The 26-year-old is coming off a gigantic 2021 season, where he earned a 25% target share, surpassed 300 PPR points and averaged 17.7 PPG. His production in the offense also increased when Lamar Jackson was injured, and Tyler Huntley was the quarterback. There isn’t much to complain about with a QB-proof target hog that ran a route on 84% of his offensive snaps.
The Baltimore Ravens are entering the final year of their most ajar championship window (before Jackson gets paid). 2022 marks a pivotal year for Jackson and Andrews, specifically. Look for Jackson to get right back into his bread-and-butter and pepper his star TE with targets down the field and in the red zone. Andrews is also impossible to cover when Jackson breaks the pocket. Do not fear taking Mark Andrews ahead of his ADP (21).
The Unicorn’s rookie season was as breathtaking as it was frustrating for fantasy managers. Sure, the ultra-gifted Florida Gator put together the second-best season by a tight end in the history of the NFL with a 110/68/1,026/1 line. But there were still plenty of indicators that the burgeoning star was robbed of an even greater debut campaign.
First of all, it is criminal that a 6-foot-6 man who ran a 4.44 40-yard dash and was utterly unstoppable as a college red zone threat only scored one touchdown last season. Despite leading all NFL TEs in yards per reception (YPR) and landing in the top three in average depth of target (aDOT) and yards per route run, Pitts was mysteriously taken off the field in scoring situations by head coach Arthur Smith. He only logged a 73.6% snap share, good for 17th among TEs. To make matters worse, Matt Ryan was not very accurate when targeting Kyle Pitts. According to PlayerProfiler.com, Pitts’s target accuracy was only 14th-best among TEs, and he had the fifth-most unrealized air yards at the position with a whopping 412.
Pitts was also subjected to an unprecedented level of coverage in 2021. With the absence of Calvin Ridley, the rookie was often the only receiver worth paying close attention to, especially in the red zone. The selection of USC star receiver Drake London immediately poses a formidable challenge for opposing defensive backs. They now must account for two huge, athletic receivers with massive catch radii.
The precarious QB situation with Marcus Mariota and rookie Desmond Ridder has also been tossed around to downgrade Pitts’ prospects in 2022. Mariota had a similarly athletic marvel at tight end in Tennessee with Delanie Walker, who recorded a gigantic 133/94/1,088/6 season in 2015. Pitts absolutely should be drafted at or before his ADP of 31 this season. Even the slightest positive regression in touchdowns and snap share leaves a league-winning season imminent.
Many of us are sick and tired of Jimmy Garoppolo. He’s too handsome, overpaid and not mobile. The latter trait has resulted in a reduction in routes run by the best tight end in the NFL, George Kittle. Enter Trey Lance: the complete antithesis of Jimmy G, with mobility and arm talent galore.
Kittle, the fifth-round pick out of Iowa, is an exemplary blocker that rendered him too important to the offense to open running lanes and keep Garoppolo upright. It shows that Kittle’s best season in the NFL was in 2018 when Garoppolo only logged three games due to injury. Lance, at the very least, opens up the passing game downfield and to the boundaries that were unavailable during the Jimmy G era. Kittle’s routes run and aDOT were abysmal in 2021, coming in at 19th and 17th among NFL TEs, respectively.
Kittle is the heartbeat of the 49ers’ offense. As the franchise ushers in a new era, Kittle remains its emperor. The accommodations made by Kyle Shanahan for his liability at quarterback hindered the fantasy production of a generational talent at the position. Lance need not be a special quarterback to unleash the beast. After all, it was a combination of Nick Mullens and Cj Beathard that first uncorked Kittle. He is five years younger than Kelce and infinitely more explosive after the catch. The validity of San Francisco’s questionable front office and coaching decisions hinge on the offense taking that one final step to win a championship. If Kittle can achieve a TE1 overall season, that result might be inevitable.
I would be surprised if this name didn’t surprise you. I was skeptical myself at Cole Kmet’s prospects of taking a massive leap into the elite tier of TEs until I dug deeper. 2022 will be Kmet’s third NFL season out of Notre Dame. He has many traits that indicate a looming explosion of productivity.
But let’s first tell the story of the 2021 Chicago Bears under Matt Nagy. It was atrocious. The scheme was as juvenile as it was dysfunctional and unprepared for weekly competition. There were only two players who rose to the occasion in a meaningful way: Darnell Mooney and Kmet. Despite earning 93 targets and a 7.9-yard aDOT last season, Kmet was routinely removed in the red zone in favor of the decrepit Jimmy Graham. The sheer number of snaps and routes run by a player treated like a rookie backup in the red zone was baffling. Kmet scored zero touchdowns, hauling in merely six of his 12 red zone targets on the entire season. Graham, who only saw the field on 26% of the Chicago offensive snaps, logged eight red zone targets and scored on three occasions.
Like a deep exhale of poison, followed by a deep breath of fresh mountain air, Nagy and Graham are gone, and the Bears decided that receivers were not on their docket for 2022. Kmet stands to see yet another drastic increase in target share from sophomore quarterback Justin Fields. It would be very surprising if Kmet was not at least the second-most targeted Bears receiver this season, with positive regression across the board in the wake of the Nagy stink fest. Kmet’s trending arrow is pointed to the sky and has the versatility and relationship with his quarterback to leap from TE21 in PPG last season into rarified air at an ADP of 121 (TE13).
This was as much of a wheelhouse article as I could have envisioned for myself, as I have become associated with the Bully TE strategic contingent. The position itself carries as much of a statistical edge in fantasy football as anything in this world of abundant informational resources. Seize the means of TE production, and you too can flourish in fantasy football this season, leaving your opponents parched in a barren wasteland of tumbleweeds and uncertainty.
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Bo McBrayer is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Bo, check out his archive and follow him @Bo_McBigTime.