On April Fool’s Day, I made some outrageous, terrible predictions just for fun. Let’s check in on those to see how they’re looking thus far, shall we?
1. Diego Castillo (2B, SS – PIT) will be more valuable at the end of the year than Oneil Cruz (SS – PIT).
It’s like I can see the future. Currently, Castillo’s WAR is 0.1, and Cruz’s WAR is -0.1. So even though I said “end of the year,” I really meant “All-Star Break,” and boom. Winner.
2. Matt Chapman (3B – TOR) will be the fourth most-valuable fantasy third baseman.
He’s currently ranked as the 20th most-valuable third baseman. That’s basically the same.
3. Shane McClanahan (SP – TB) will get more Cy Young votes than Robbie Ray (SP – SEA), Shane Bieber (SP – CLE) and Lucas Giolito (SP – CWS) combined.
This one looks pretty good, and I think I speak for all fantasy managers/McClanaheads when we beg the Rays to let him keep pitching versus shutting him down early.
4. Sean Murphy (C – OAK) will be a more valuable fantasy catcher than Yasmani Grandal (C – CWS).
Murphy is the 10th most-valuable catcher at this point; Grandal has had 173 at-bats for the year. This (and Alejandro Kirk) is why you should always wait on a catcher.
5. Adalberto Mondesi (SS, 3B – KC) will steal 50 bases.
It was a typo, see. I meant to only say FIVE, and that zero just ended up there.
As you can see, I am the most prescient analyst available to you, so I thought maybe I’d talk to my crystal ball and offer five second-half predictions as wonky as the first five. You’re welcome.
Five So-Accurate-You-Won’t-Believe-Me Second Half Predictions
1. Xander Bogaerts (SS – BOS) will finish outside the Top 10 shortstops.
We’ll ease into the concept of “bold” by using a big name but not such a big prediction. Bogaerts is currently ranked somewhere between fifth and eighth, depending on which site your league is hosted on. Telling you he might fall two whole spots isn’t brilliant, but this is my nominee for “trade now” questions.
The 29-year-old was a popular pick for a monster season because of his potential pending free agency, and his ADP ended at 39. Bogaerts is a great player, but no one drafted him in the Top 40, hoping for only seven home runs and 37 RBI through the first half. His BABIP is an unsustainable .383 and due to regress about 50 points, which will, in turn, undercut his .316 average down to the .280 range.
Every model expects him to have fewer than 10 second-half home runs and under 40 RBI. I don’t imagine anyone (myself included) drafted him that early hoping for only 15 HR and 75 RBI. If that’s all you want, Thairo Estrada is probably available in most leagues.
Trade Bogaerts right now for as much as you can get.
2. Julio Rodriguez (OF – SEA) will be more valuable than Aaron Judge (OF – NYY) in the second half.
(I swear I wrote this section before the HR Derby.) According to ESPN Player Rater, in a standard 5×5 roto league, Judge and Rodriguez are 1-2 for the most valuable outfielder.
The 30-year-old Judge is having his best year since 2017 and is dominating headlines regarding his pending free agency and what his market value will be (though this spotlight has dimmed with the recent Juan Soto news). He heads into the break with 33 HR and 70 RBI, and his expected stats say he still has positive regression coming.
He is slugging .618, but his xSLG is .730
I’m just going to let that stat sit on its own line.
Meanwhile, the 21-year-old Rodriguez is close behind him, and that includes the early part of the year when he struck out in rapid succession. (Fun fact: He has played in two more games than Judge and struck out only two more times, 102 to 100.) Julio’s legs are making up the difference, stealing 21 bases to Judge’s eight, which explains why his PwrSpd metric is 18.2 to Judge’s 12.9.
There were hints of Judge’s body giving him issues in the last couple of weeks, though it didn’t impact his production much. However, with the Yankees waltzing through the division, I can see them giving him more rest down the stretch, whereas the Mariners will let Rodriguez loose until the end.
3. The Milwaukee Brewers will have a Top 3 team ERA at the end of the year.
This Milwaukee Brewers ballclub is built to win every game 2-1 and has had terrible injury luck in the first half. Freddy Peralta sounds like he is getting close to returning in early August, which means that Jason Alexander can return from whence he came, and the team stats should begin normalizing. Just look at this Statcast page. Those ERA/xERA numbers are all in the 2s and 3s, and they play in a division with three Triple-A (if we’re being generous) lineups.
They currently sit in 13th place overall, so mathematically, this will require some regression from a couple of hundred pitchers in front of them, but they have the second-easiest remaining schedule.
In fantasy, I’m gobbling up any Brewer pitcher that’ll have me.
4. Both Paul Goldschmidt (1B – STL) and Jose Ramirez (3B – CLE) will fall out of the Top 10 overall.
According to Statcast, these two superstars have some negative regression coming in the second half. Ramirez is slugging 100 points above his expected, whereas Goldschmidt could lose as much as 60 batting average points in the future. They are currently in fourth and fifth overall in a 5×5 roto league, but some just outside the Top 10 might threaten them, including Freddie Freeman, Corbin Burnes, Yordan Alvarez, and Kyle Tucker.
I promise I am not trying to pick on either of these guys – Ramirez is criminally underrated in fantasy and reality – they’re just the two who jump out to me for some second-half regression. In dynasty leagues where you’re looking toward next year, Goldschmidt is movable due to age, and Ramirez should stay unless someone offers you Julio Rodriguez for him. (Okay, now THAT I wrote after the HR Derby.)
5. Juan Soto (OF – WAS) will get traded to the Yankees.
Look, I don’t want Juan Soto to become a Yankee, and I would love for him to end up in that Toronto lineup, the Mariners, or even the Brewers. As a Cubs fan, anybody but the Cardinals is my only wish. But the Yankees make too much sense, particularly if New York doesn’t want to pay the 30-year-old Judge a similar amount. They have the prospects and prestige and the spotlight, and it creates a built-in reason to let Judge walk if that’s what they want.
From a fantasy perspective, imagine a world where Juan Soto gets to play 81 games in a stadium in which Matt freaking Carpenter (and his career .457 SLG) currently qualifies as a “slugger.” At the very least, the 23-year-old HR Derby champion would finally get some pitches to hit. Fantasy managers in non-OBP leagues would welcome this change.
I know it hasn’t been the Yankee m.o. in recent years to sell the farm and collect massive contracts. (That baton passed to the Angels a while ago.) But when is the last time anyone of Soto’s caliber was available in a trade at 23 years old with two more controllable years?
New York is the best team in baseball, and they don’t need Soto, per se. But it would be the most historically-accurate, soul-crushing Yankees move to acquire the guy who will possibly change the landscape of baseball for the next decade. For those of you in AL-only leagues, be ready.
With that, I wish all of your second-half dreams come true. And, as always, good luck!
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Kelly Kirby is an editor and featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Kelly, check out her archive and follow her on Twitter at @thewonkypenguin.