Tight ends in fantasy football cause so much stir this time of the year. Everybody wants to either attack the position hard or fade it all together. The truth is that tight ends polarize the landscape because there is little to differentiate a large group of them. It is the toughest position to get a significant edge from because to see a significant advantage, you need to concede that advantage at another position.
However, one way you can find an edge is to look at players whose Average Draft Position (ADP) is down from their 2021 ADP, and who are likely to see a bounce back. The quickest way to do that is to see an increase in targets.
Therefore, here are four players who can improve on 2021 with a positive regression of targets:
Most people will look at Travis Kelce and think that this is mad. However, in 2021, Travis Kelce’s target share of 22.3% was his lowest target share percentage since 2016. It dropped by almost 3% in 2021 from 2020. Add on top of that the 340 vacated targets the Kansas City Chiefs have. This is narrowly second behind the Tennessee Titans in the NFL. As a result of the vacated targets, you have a tremendous amount of opportunity for him to rebound, or potentially exceed his 2021 target share.
In addition, his targets per route run were at their lowest since 2016. With the vacated targets and lack of established receivers, Kelce’s 24.9% target rate is likely to be pushed up to nearer his peak of 33.3% that he saw in 2018.
Kelce has unlimited targets to earn, he is the most senior incumbent on his team and he is established as the best in his position in the NFL. This is likely a big year for Kelce, and that positive target regression could see him break some records.
It is hard to imagine we are entering year three of Cole Kmet in the NFL, and we have only seen him hit paydirt once. Kmet is a player with an above-average catch radius, burst and speed based on his scouting combine metrics. Therefore, expecting a breakout year from Kmet is not too much.
The Chicago Bears have 218 vacated targets going into this season. They decided to replace Allen Robinson, who has moved on to the Rams, with Byron Pringle and Velus Jones Jr. the 25-year-old rookie out of Tennessee. That shows a lot of faith in the weapons they already have like Darnell Mooney and Kmet.
Due to the lack of competition added so far this summer, it appears extremely likely that Kmet will increase his target share of 17.7% in 2021 to somewhere north of 20%. In Justin Fields‘ second year, and with a new offensive coordinator, the Chicago Bears will likely throw more than 542 times in 2022.
If you add an increase in target share, Kmet will likely see as many as 20-25 more targets in 2022. That will be huge for his value and for fantasy players selecting him late in drafts this year. Not to mention, he is also a huge positive touchdown regression candidate.
Last season, many fantasy players were on the Kyle Pitts hype train. And not only did it leave the station, but his ADP rocketed to a point that it was almost impossible for him to return value. As a result, with an ADP drop in 2022, could year No. 2 be the Kyle Pitts breakout?
The Atlanta Falcons have 287 vacated targets from 2021, with Calvin Ridley suspended for the season. They also lost Russell Gage in free agency and drafted Drake London to compensate for that loss. Therefore, the No. 4 overall pick from the 2021 NFL Draft is likely to see a significant increase from his 20.3% target share in 2021.
Though there is a downgrade in quarterback in 2022 from Matt Ryan to Marcus Mariota, there is still a huge opportunity for Pitts to see a significant increase in targets. We might even see Pitts play more in the slot or even out-wide in 2022. Therefore, Pitts is a safe bet to see significant positive target regression in 2022, given his opportunity and snap share percentage.
Pitts is also another positive touchdown regression candidate in 2022.
Gerald Everett has been a solid tight end in the NFL. However, this year Everett is walking into a situation where he could produce the biggest year of his career. Everett has moved to the Los Angeles Chargers in the offseason. After the departure of Jared Cook and others, the Chargers have 103 vacated targets at the tight end position from 2021.
Everett has been consistently increasing his targets at a rate of one per year from 2019-2021 (Everett had 61 targets in 2019, 62 targets in 2020, and 63 targets in 2021). However, this year, he will likely to gain as many as 20 additional targets. He will also have a significant offense upgrade in 2022, with a team that likes to target tight ends in the red zone.
While it might be hard to see Everett increase from the 15% target share in 2021, the stake he earns this year will be on an offense that passes a lot more. It will also be in a better system for him to operate in, and will help him see a higher volume and a better quality of targets.
Expect Everett to shock a few fantasy football fans and be in contention for a top-12 finish at the position in 2022.
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Adam Murfet is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Murf, check out his archive and follow him @Murf_NFL.