Although rookie wide receivers are often overlooked by their running back counterparts, these wideouts are consistently some of the best values in season-long fantasy football. Just look at the historic numbers Justin Jefferson and Ja’Marr Chase have produced over the past two seasons.
And the former LSU teammates are not alone. In 2020, Jefferson (WR6) was joined by Chase Claypool (WR19) and CeeDee Lamb (WR20) as rookie WR2s or better. In 2021, it was Chase (WR5) and Jaylen Waddle (WR16) saving fantasy seasons.
While this class might not match Jefferson and Chase in elite year-one production, a handful of rookie wide receivers do have the potential to drastically outperform their current Average Draft Position (ADP). Let’s dive in!
Drake London (ATL): ECR WR39
One look at Atlanta’s wide receiver depth chart and you’ll understand Drake London’s breakout potential in year one. With Calvin Ridley suspended for the season and Russell Gage off becoming BFF’s with Tom Brady, London is looking at WR3 volume at a minimum.
That volume could increase, but for London to reach his true potential this season, Atlanta’s offense needs a massive facelift from the 2021 version. The Falcons targeted wide receivers on only 45.2% of their drop backs last season, by far the lowest percentage in the league. That was likely due to the team’s lack of impact wide receivers, but it’s something worth keeping an eye on in 2022.
Another roadblock in any potential London year-one breakout is the quarterback situation in Atlanta. Marcus Mariota and Desmond Ridder are near clones of each other, which isn’t a great thing for London fantasy managers. Both are athletic, big-armed quarterbacks with a risk-averse style of play.
That will be a problem if London struggles to separate in the NFL, but the USC product was more than a jump-ball player in college. London did plenty of work underneath and has more wiggle than given credit for. The cost is higher than other rookie wideouts, but it may be worth it in the end.
Treylon Burks (TEN): ECR WR42
Is there legitimate concern about Treylon Burks’ conditioning? Or is this the perfect opportunity to “buy the dip”? I’m betting on the latter.
Unfortunately, Burks does come with more red flags than just his conditioning. He’s tied to an old-school, run-first offense that isn’t changing anytime soon. Derrick Henry missed nine games last season and the Titans were still the second run-heaviest offense (48.78%) in the NFL. That’s certainly one way to stay on brand.
The good news is, outside of the aging Robert Woods, there isn’t much target competition in Tennessee. Burks won’t jump right into the lineup and replace AJ Brown, but he can help ease the pain. He’s riskier than London this year, but the upside is about the same if things hit just right.
Garrett Wilson (NYJ): ECR WR48
Plenty of intelligent people had Garrett Wilson as rookie WR1 entering the 2022 NFL Draft. Landing with the New York Jets has muddled that projection. Not only are the Jets traditionally one of the league’s worst offenses, but Wilson joins a pretty crowded skill-position group also featuring Breece Hall, Elijah Moore, Corey Davis, and Michael Carter.
That has left people pushing Wilson further and further down their boards. In my opinion, that could be something worth taking advantage of. There is legitimate concern about Zach Wilson‘s ability to make more than 1-2 players fantasy relevant. I get that. However, that’s probably more of a problem for Davis and Carter. I will say that Wilson is fairly priced as WR48 on our FantasyPros ECR Rankings, so be wary of reaching too far above that range.
Chris Olave (NO): ECR WR53
New Orleans coveted a deep threat this offseason and they found one in wide receiver Chris Olave. Being outproduced by Garrett Wilson and Jaxon Smith-Njigba in 2021 ultimately didn’t hurt Olave, as the Saints traded up to No. 11 overall to secure the speedy, route-savvy Ohio State star.
With Michael Thomas and Jarvis Landry at the top of the depth chart, Olave might not be a consistent fantasy producer, but there will be spike weeks throughout the season. Olave is probably a “better in best ball” prospect since you don’t have to guess when those spike weeks are coming, but he’s a worthy selection at his current ECR of WR53.
Honorable Mentions
Skyy Moore entered the 2022 NFL Draft as one of my favorite wide receiver prospects, so naturally, his landing spot has me excited. Keep a close eye on training camp reports out of Kansas City. If the Chiefs are using both Moore and JuJu Smith-Schuster in the slot, it might be tough sledding for the rookie to find consistent playing time in Year 1. If either one of Moore or Smith-Schuster starts outside, the sky’s the limit for the Western Michigan product.
Lions wide receiver Jameson Williams is an exceptional talent and one of my favorite buy-lows in dynasty. However, Williams is expected to open the season on the PUP (Physically Unable to Perform) list, which would keep him sidelined for six weeks at a minimum. Unless you draft Williams at a discount AND you have an Injured Reserve slot, It’s probably wise to invest your redraft draft capital elsewhere.
Christian Watson has the opportunity of a lifetime after joining the WR-needy Green Bay Packers. Unfortunately, the rookie also has an uphill battle earning the trust of Aaron Rodgers. The Packers’ legendary quarterback has recently been talking up Allen Lazard as Green Bay’s WR1 while stressing that “deep breaths” will be needed with the rookies.
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