Maximizing your return on investment is the whole strategy behind taking high-upside players late in the draft. Regardless of what kind of league you play in, it’s important to go into each draft with several sleeper targets at every position so you can ensure you wind up with a few of your guys once it’s all said and done. Hitting on a couple of those can dramatically increase your title chances, but who should fantasy managers target? Our featured pundits have hand-picked several athletes who boast league-winning potential. Read on below to see which sleeper candidates are worth your attention in the final rounds!
Q1. Which one RB outside the top 55 in half-PPR RB ADP do you plan to target in all drafts as a late-round steal and why?
Mark Ingram (NO): ADP – RB57 | 168th Overall
“Mark Ingram might be nearing nursing home status in football years, but that doesn’t mean he’s washed. As long as Alvin Kamara is sidelined with any suspension, Ingram showed last year he still has plenty left in the tank to handle the work. Last season without Kamara in the lineup, Ingram played 72% or higher snaps in two of three games, averaging 18 touches (6.7 targets) and 95 total yards. In that span, he was the RB24, RB8 and RB15 in weekly scoring. Last year he was 27th in yards after contact per attempt (per PFF, minimum 100 carries), which ranked immediately ahead of James Conner and Alvin Kamara. Ingram is a top-24 running back for however long Kamara is out, and he’s currently free in drafts. ”
– Derek Brown (FantasyPros)
“Until we have more information surrounding Alvin Kamara’s situation, I plan on continuing to draft Mark Ingram. He averaged 13.3 rushing attempts and 5.7 targets for 82.3 scrimmage yards and 11.4 fantasy points per game in games Kamara missed last year, scoring over 12 fantasy points twice and finishing as the RB36, RB10 and RB13 along the way. He has a role when Kamara is there, but with the possibility Kamara is suspended for roughly six games, Ingram is a massive steal. Rather than fight it out with your league mates over waivers and spend a bulk of your FAAB, draft Ingram at a significant discount, as his ADP is not in line with his actual value.”
– Tommy Garrett (Pro Football Network)
Tyrion Davis-Price (SF): ADP – RB65 | 201st Overall
“I didn’t think too highly of Tyrion Davis-Price before the 2022 NFL Draft, but his initial burst and long speed — 77th percentile 40-yard dash and 73rd percentile 10-yard split time — opened my eyes to his potential in the 49ers offense, as did the most critical metric regarding his Year 1 projection: Round 3 draft capital. And above all, the 49ers’ offense breeds an efficient running game like no other that can easily open lanes for the rookie’s speed. It’s not hard to envision a scenario where the 49ers are forced to turn to their physically bruising rookie running back in the wake of a potential injury to an undersized Elijah Mitchell in 2022 or just use the two in tandem. San Fran’s coaching staff liked the way Davis-Price bullied defenders in the fourth quarters of games at the college level, so it’s easy to picture him in a similar “finisher” role in the pros. And historically speaking, the 49ers’ fantasy RB to roster in fantasy football is rarely the first one off the draft board. ”
– Andrew Erickson (FantasyPros)
D’Ernest Johnson (CLE): ADP – RB72 | 234th Overall
“D’Ernest Johnson has piqued my interest as a late-round sleeper in deeper leagues. He balled out whenever he got extensive playing time last year, with 41-245-1 rushing and 9-80-0 receiving in two starts, plus another 123 rushing yards and a touchdown in Week 17. Johnson was PFF’s highest-graded runner last year. There’s a logjam in the Cleveland backfield this year, which could work in Johnson’s favor. If the Browns trade him or cut him, he’ll presumably go to an RB-needy team that will provide him with greater opportunity. If the Browns trade Kareem Hunt, Johnson ascends to the No. 2 role behind starter Nick Chubb — and we’ve seen how valuable the No. 2 RB in Cleveland can be. ”
– Pat Fitzmaurice (FantasyPros)
Khalil Herbert (CHI): ADP – RB59 | 188th Overall
“Khalil Herbert profiles as an elite handcuff in season-long leagues, but he isn’t being drafted as such. Herbert is the undisputed backup to bell cow David Montgomery and proved in 2021 he’s more than capable of providing bell cow usage himself. From Weeks 5-8 last season, Herbert ranked second in the NFL in rushing attempts (78) behind only Derrick Henry. Herbert was also fourth in the NFL in rushing yards (344) during that stretch, and he profiled as a rock-solid RB2 in fantasy points per game despite scoring just one touchdown in four outings while playing for a bottom-tier offense with Andy Dalton at the helm. Two of Herbert’s four starts came against two of the top run defenses in the league, Tampa Bay and San Francisco. Herbert won’t be a viable starter for you out of the gates this season, but at an ADP of RB59, you don’t need him to be. Stash him on your bench as a late-round handcuff to Montgomery or even as a potential candidate to steal Chicago’s starting RB job, as he was better than Montgomery in breakaway conversion rate, yards per carry and box-adjusted efficiency rating in 2021, according to PlayerProfiler. Unlike most backup running backs, Herbert has given us a sample of shouldering a heavy workload when called upon. He totaled 20+ RB opportunities (carries + targets) in three straight games (22, 23 and 25) before Montgomery returned in Week 9, and guess what? The Bears boast the easiest schedule for running backs in 2022, according to FantasyPros. Herbert has true week-winning upside if the player in front of him misses time, and I’m not sure we can say that about any other RB with an ADP outside of 50.”
– Christopher Dell (Betting Predators)
Tyler Allgeier (ATL): ADP – RB58 | 163rd Overall
“We thought Tyler Allgeier landed in an ideal location when the Falcons drafted him in April, and everything I’ve read about the Atlanta backfield suggests it might be even better than we thought. Cordarrelle Patterson will not repeat the workload he saw last year, and the 22-year-old back from BYU is built to handle whatever touches HC Arthur Smith gives him. With Marcus Mariota at QB, there should be plenty of opportunities for running, and Allgeier’s bruising-back style fits directly in with Smith’s scheme. As the 58th RB off the board, I love his upside as is, and with a Patterson injury, I could see 500 yards and a handful of TD on the year.”
– Kelly Kirby (FantasyPros)
Bonus Mid-Round Breakout — Rhamondre Stevenson (NE): ADP – RB37 | 99th Overall
“Rhamondre Stevenson is currently going in the ninth round and is a sleepy pick with upside given the Patriots’ propensity to mix things up in their backfield, even if it is a crowded backfield. When starter Damien Harris missed a late season game, Stevenson stole the show with a 100-yard, two touchdown performance, carving out a role the rest of the way. Third-down option James White may not return to form and Stevenson has shown that he can fill the pass-catching role, although rookie Pierre Strong will be an option. Regardless, Stevenson is at worst the second-best RB on the team, and he will get touches every game. If Harris is traded or sustains an injury, Stevenson could vault into low-end RB1 consideration.”
– Chalk (The Undroppables)
Q2. Which one WR outside the top 60 in half-PPR WR ADP do you plan to target in all drafts as a late-round steal and why?
K.J. Osborn (MIN): ADP – WR80 | 230th Overall
“Minnesota Vikings WR K.J. Osborn flashed at times during the 2021 season, but never more so than when he filled in for Adam Thielen. From Weeks 13-17, the second-year pro averaged 12 half-PPR fantasy points per game to go along with six targets. He also cracked starting lineups as a fantasy WR3 at a 44% clip and posted just one fewer top-24 finish than his veteran teammate during the entire 2021 season. If Thielen starts to break down entering his age-32 season, Osborn would be the prime beneficiary in a more pass-happy, fantasy-friendly Vikings offense under new head coach and play caller Kevin O’Connell. The Rams ran 11 personnel at a league-high 86% of offensive plays last season; Minnesota ran 11-personnel at the fifth-lowest rate in the league.”
– Andrew Erickson (FantasyPros)
Jakobi Meyers (NE): ADP – WR61 | 179th Overall
“The utter disdain for the Patriots’ offense jumps off the page when staring at rankings. Jakobi Meyers is being woefully undervalued this offseason. Meyers finished last year as the WR35, seeing a 25.9% target per route rate (26th, per Playerprofiler.com). This could be his floor in 2022. Meyers’ underlying metrics scream that his ceiling is massive. Last season he was sixth in route win rate and fifth in win rate against man coverage (per Playerprofiler.com). I’ll keep scooping value late in drafts from this passing attack, and Meyers shares the top of that list with Kendrick Bourne. ”
– Derek Brown (FantasyPros)
Jahan Dotson (WAS): ADP – WR69 | 177th Overall
“Jahan Dotson is generating surprisingly little enthusiasm for a guy who was drafted 16th overall and will immediately step in as Washington’s No. 2 receiver opposite Terry McLaurin. Dotson had a 91st percentile college dominator rating and a 96th percentile college target share, per PlayerProfiler.com. He racked up 91 catches for 1,182 yards and 12 TDs in his final season at Penn State despite playing with erratic QB Sean Clifford. Dotson has 4.43 speed that shows up on the field, remarkably good hands, great body control and a knack for winning jump balls even though he’s 5-11, 181 pounds. PlayerProfiler.com compares Dotson to Tyler Lockett, and I’ve also heard Dotson described as a Diontae Johnson doppelganger with better hands. This is an excellent way to spend a late-round pick.”
– Pat Fitzmaurice (FantasyPros)
Tim Patrick (DEN): ADP – WR63 | 164th Overall
“It’s Tim Patrick, WR for the Russell Wilson-led Denver Broncos. Fresh off back-to-back 700-yard seasons, Patrick accounted for 27% of the WR targets in 2020 and 31% in 2021. When all three receivers were on the field, Patrick consistently outplayed them both while receiving an 18.1% target share. No doubt Courtland Sutton will get the deep, game-breaking targets in a similar role to D.K. Metcalf and is a top-12 caliber option for fantasy. However, the best value for fantasy managers who want a piece of the pie is unquestionably Patrick (ECR WR63), who could very well outperform Jerry Jeudy in 2022.”
– Tommy Garrett (Pro Football Network)
Mecole Hardman (KC): ADP – WR62 | 170th Overall
“There’s a ton of debate in fantasy football circles as to who will be Patrick Mahomes‘ new favorite wide receiver between recently added free agents Marquez Valdes-Scantling/JuJu Smith-Schuster and rookie Skyy Moore. Well, what if it’s none of them? Mecole Hardman is the only wide receiver on the Chiefs’ depth chart who actually has experience playing with Mahomes and has been viewed as a “Tyreek Hill-lite” type of athlete. With an ADP of WR62 and a realistic chance to be Mahomes’ top target outside of Travis Kelce, the ADP just doesn’t add up. Hardman is still just 24 with second-round draft capital from 2019, and his fourth season in the NFL (with no Tyreek Hill in front of him) could be just what he needs to have a breakout campaign. In the two games last season in which he received double-digit targets, Hardman responded with receiving lines of 12-9-76 and 11-8-103. He can handle gadget plays out of the backfield as a rusher as well, and if we’re projecting the AFC West division to be as difficult as many say it will be, that means the Chiefs could be trailing (and passing the ball) more than we’ve become accustomed to over the years. The gap between KC’s top four wideouts should be much closer than it is currently with their respective ADP’s (Smith-Schuster WR35, Valdes-Scantling WR53, Moore WR56), so give me the discount on the receiver who already has 3+ seasons of experience with Mahomes under his belt. If Hardman is able to replicate even 50% of the Tyreek Hill role in this offense, then it’s game over at his current season-long ADP/draft cost.”
– Christopher Dell (Betting Predators)
Sammy Watkins (GB): ADP – WR70 | 202nd Overall
“One of the last darts I’m throwing in most drafts is at Sammy Watkins. Even if Aaron Rodgers has achieved nirvana and complete inner peace, he has never demonstrated patience with rookie wide receivers. With Allen Lazard in the slot, I expect to see Watkins a fair amount on the outside and see him developing into one of Rodgers’ favorite deep threats, akin to the role Marquez Valdes-Scantling vacated. Watkins is an excellent blocker, which means he will stay on the field, and we know Rodgers can make plays to anyone. While Christian Watson will eventually emerge, taking Watkins as the 70th WR off the board seems like a good value with a floor of 65 targets, 500 yards and 4 TDs.”
– Kelly Kirby (FantasyPros)
Bonus Mid-Round Breakout — Michael Thomas (NO): ADP – WR25 | 68th Overall
“Michael Thomas. With an ADP of 78 (7.06) in seasonal drafts, the veteran receiver is shaping up to be an immense value. Many fantasy gamers are shying away from MT because he hasn’t seen the field since 2020, missing last season completely. Then there’s the fact that the Saints added two solid wide receivers (Chris Olave and Jarvis Landry). But we know that talent commands targets. There have also been differing reports around his recovery although the most recent reports suggest that he’ll be cleared early in training camp. If Thomas can remain healthy this season, he is easily locked in as a WR2 with WR1 upside.”
– Chalk (The Undroppables)
Thanks to the experts for sharing their advice! For more of their insight, be sure to follow each pundit on Twitter (click their names above) and visit their respective sites.
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