Our expert consensus rankings (ECR) are a great way to gauge how the industry views each player. That doesn’t mean you should just blindly follow the experts, though. Forming your own opinions, especially those that contradict the crowd, is how you can gain an edge over the competition — as with anyone who believed in the Bengals’ high-flying offense last year. The industry pegged Joe Burrow and Joe Mixon as the QB13 and the RB13, respectively, in our half-PPR ECR last preseason. Rookie sensation Ja’Marr Chase was ranked as the WR31 after some struggles in camp. Fast-forward a few months later, and the Bengals’ believers were rewarded, with each of those players finishing inside the top five at their position.
Disagreeing with the consensus is healthy, and it can push you to a title if you’re opinions are correct. Even the analysts who make up our consensus have some players they rank much higher or lower than the crowd. Here are the running backs and wide receivers today’s featured experts disagree with the ECR on the most.
Q1. Which RB’s half-PPR ECR do you disagree with the most and why? Also, where do you have him ranked?
David Montgomery (CHI): Consensus Rank – RB16 | Analyst Rank – RB26
“David Montgomery’s rank as a top-20 running back (RB16) is based on his previous usage as a workhorse running back. Yes, he’s finished as the RB12 and RB6 in the last two seasons, but that was accomplished on pure volume and not efficiency. Montgomery has ranked fourth and first in opportunity share over the last two seasons, but that could change with a new regime with no ties to him previously. He’s ranked 42nd, 25th and 36th in yards created per touch over the last three seasons. With Luke Getsy coming over from Green Bay, we could see similar usage for Montgomery that Aaron Jones received. Since 2020, Jones has seen between a 52.7% and 60.6% opportunity share. If this comes to fruition and Khalil Herbert, Darrynton Evans and Trestan Ebner are worked in more, Montgomery should be closer to my ranking at RB26. ”
– Derek Brown (FantasyPros)
J.K. Dobbins (BAL): Consensus Rank – RB21 | Analyst Rank – RB27
“J.K. Dobbins at RB21 is an aggressive ranking for a guy who’s working his way back from a torn ACL, is probably going to be in a timeshare and probably won’t catch very many passes. Dobbins looked terrific as a rookie in 2019, scoring nine TDs and averaging 6.0 yards per carry. But he averaged only 8.9 rushing attempts per contest and had 18 catches in 15 games. It’s likely Dobbins will share work with Gus Edwards and perhaps others, and we know that Ravens QB Lamar Jackson is going to run a lot, too. Ravens beat writer Jeff Zrebiec reports that Dobbins probably won’t play in the preseason, so we might not be able to get a look at the post-injury Dobbins before having to decide whether to draft him. There are just too many uncertainties here to draft Dobbins in RB2 range. I have him at RB27.”
– Pat Fitzmaurice (FantasyPros)
Mark Ingram (NO): Consensus Rank – RB58 | Analyst Rank – RB41
“Mark Ingram is ranked way too low at RB58 ECR. Alvin Kamara is likely going to be suspended for up to six games to open the season, slating Ingram for a heavy workload in September. The Saints’ all-time leading rusher finished as RB36, RB10 and RB13 — the two later performances coming with Kamara entirely out of the lineup — after being traded from the Texans last season. Ingram is my RB41, 17 spots ahead of ECR. ”
– Andrew Erickson (FantasyPros)
Derrick Henry (TEN): Consensus Rank – RB4 | Analyst Rank – RB10
“Look, Derrick Henry has been good whenever he suits up for the Titans, but with the trade of A.J. Brown to the Eagles, there’s an increased likelihood that Henry will be facing eight men in the box minimum every time he steps onto the field. It’s not only loaded boxes that concern me, but also the fact that he will be playing with five screws in that foot, and his yards per carry have decreased from 5.4 in 2020 to 4.4 in 2021. It’s not like I’m totally down on him — I still have him as my 10th-ranked RB for 2022 — but when it comes to fantasy, I’d rather be a year early than a year late, and the years and the touches have been adding up.”
– Matt Donnelly (Dynasty Vipers)
Breece Hall (NYJ): Consensus Rank – RB20 | Analyst Rank – RB16
“ECR is far too low on Breece Hall at RB20. During the 2022 NFL Draft, the Jets jumped the Texans to ensure they got their guy at pick #36; early day two draft capital for an RB is about as good as it gets for the position. There is little to no competition in the Jets RB room, and their offense is poised to take a step forward. Hall projects as a borderline bellcow; 280-300 touches on the season is well within reach. Breece Hall comfortably sits at RB16 in my rankings and will find his way on many of my rosters. ”
– Tyler Orginski (JWB Fantasy Football)
Q2. Which WR’s half-PPR ECR do you disagree with the most and why? Also, where do you have him ranked?
Russell Gage (TB): Consensus Rank – WR44 | Analyst Rank – WR31
“I’m 13 spots above ECR on Russell Gage. Last year, Darnell Mooney was my guy (still is), but this year I also love myself some Russell Gage. Gage is positioned nicely to be that WR3 who will give you high-end WR2 production on occasion, which has him firmly ranked as my WR31 and climbing. After back-to-back 770-plus-yard seasons, Gage finds himself on a similar career trajectory to Robert Woods, who would go on to multiple 85-catch/900-yard seasons after leaving Buffalo for L.A. Gage has a couple of things working in his favor, such as playing with a quarterback the caliber of Tom Brady, who essentially hand-picked him to replace Antonio Brown, and an immediate starting role opposite of Mike Evans as Chris Godwin recovers from his ACL injury. No Gronkowski, no Brown, no Godwin — that’s plenty of opportunity for Gage to surpass his early ECR.”
– Matt Donnelly (Dynasty Vipers)
Courtland Sutton (DEN): Consensus Rank – WR21 | Analyst Rank – WR29
“My colleagues Derek Brown and Andrew Erickson will hate me for this, but I can’t get on board with Courtland Sutton at WR21. Yes, Russell Wilson‘s arrival can only mean good things for the Denver passing game. But WRs Jerry Jeudy and Tim Patrick are going to get fed, too, and WR K.J. Hamler and TE Albert Okwuegbunam are among the other talented young Broncos pass catchers vying for Wilson’s attention. Sutton smashed early last season while Jeudy was sidelined by a high-ankle sprain, but then Sutton’s role in the Broncos’ offense went up in a puff of smoke upon Jeudy’s return, even though Jeudy wasn’t doing much himself. It’s not that I can’t envision a solid season for Sutton; it’s that he’s being drafted so aggressively when he didn’t command more than seven targets in any of his last 11 games in 2021. I have Sutton at WR29.”
– Pat Fitzmaurice (FantasyPros)
Amari Cooper (CLE): Consensus Rank – WR22 | Analyst Rank – WR29
“The looming suspension for Deshaun Watson still hangs over the Browns’ 2022 season outlook, and the downgrade to Jacoby Brissett is notable, but Amari Cooper is still ranked as the WR22. I keep trying to make sense of this ranking, but it’s tough. Cooper couldn’t even reach that realm last year with better quarterback play from Dak Prescott, as he finished as the WR25. I get that the consensus views him as the only show in town, but my love for David Njoku is well documented, so I won’t let that slight stand. Cooper is a player in decline, as he’s seen his yards per route run dip in each of the past three seasons. I can’t consider Cooper anything more than a volume-based mid-WR3 (WR29) in my rankings. ”
– Derek Brown (FantasyPros)
Christian Kirk (JAC): Consensus Rank – WR42 | Analyst Rank – WR32
“Christian Kirk is ranked way too low at WR42 ECR. Last season, he finished as a WR3 (top 36) or better in 63% of his games (same as Michael Pittman and Tyreek Hill), the 18th-best mark among WRs. Kirk is a screaming value as a proven commodity who flashed big-time playmaking a season ago and projects to be the No. 1 receiver in the Jacksonville Jaguars offense. Kirk is my WR32, 10 spots ahead of ECR. ”
– Andrew Erickson (FantasyPros)
Adam Thielen (MIN): Consensus Rank – WR34 | Analyst Rank – WR25
“Adam Thielen at WR34 is borderline criminal. For starters, this finished WR28 last year and missed four games. Thielen finished 2021 as the WR18 in points per game and is a nightmare for opposing defenses in the red zone. All signs point toward the Vikings being a bit more pass-heavy under new HC Kevin O’Connell; we easily could see Cousins eclipse the 600 pass attempt mark this season. This is good news for trusted veteran Thielen, and he is my WR25 going into the year. ”
– Tyler Orginski (JWB Fantasy Football)
Thanks to the experts for sharing their advice! For more of their insight, be sure to follow each pundit on Twitter (click their names above) and visit their respective sites.
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