Every offseason, it’s necessary to get reacquainted with the player and coaching changes that make up the fantasy landscape. This offseason blew up the NFL, put it in a blender, then put all the pieces back together like a mismatched puzzle. Big names have new homes and teams have made drastic changes to their coaching staff, which leaves fantasy managers scratching their heads.
As important as it is to find players to target in your drafts, it can be equally helpful to identify players you may want to avoid. This could be due to new teams, new coaching, their average draft position (ADP), or all of the above. Recognizing the pitfalls of players can be just as crucial as finding the studs.
Here are 10 players to avoid in the 2022 fantasy season:
The Bengals didn’t make any groundbreaking changes to their Super Bowl contending team from last season. However, we did learn quite a bit about their offense with a full year of Joe Burrow as the starting quarterback with his former college teammate Ja’Marr Chase.
Unfortunately, we learned that Tyler Boyd slipped to third in targets behind Chase and Tee Higgins. Boyd has never been considered a WR1, but he finished in the WR2 tier in consecutive seasons in 2018 and 2019. When the Bengals added Higgins in 2020, Boyd dropped to WR35, losing over 20 fantasy points. His targets went from 148, to 110, then to 94 from 2019 through 2021. With each wide receiver addition, Boyd’s targets continued to diminish.
It’s exciting to see a wide receiver from this explosive offense and difficult to pass up on him, especially since Boyd isn’t being drafted until late in the 11th round. Avoiding Boyd this season is not about avoiding risk. He carries very little considering how late you can get him. Instead, it’s about using these picks to draft players who have the highest upside possible as dart throws or speculative adds. Instead of being seduced by the Bengals’ passing game, look instead to QB Tua Tagovailoa, TE Hunter Henry, or WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling in this round.
As usual, the Cleveland Browns are going to be a hot mess again this year (no offense, Browns fans). Despite the optimism each year, it feels like the Browns keep running into a brick wall instead of improving in their division.
Deshaun Watson‘s controversial addition only adds gasoline to the fire and his availability to even play this season is in question. This makes drafting any pass catcher for the Browns a high-risk proposition, even one as talented as the newly acquired Amari Cooper.
Since 2019, Cooper’s fantasy production has dropped from WR9, to WR16, and finally to WR27 in 2021. Granted, he was in competition with other receivers like CeeDee Lamb in the Cowboys’ offense, who saw 120 targets to Cooper’s 104 (tied with TE Dalton Schultz). On his new team, Cooper will be lining up alongside Donovan Peoples-Jones and rookie David Bell. Peoples-Jones ranked third in targets last season for Cleveland behind Jarvis Landry and Austin Hooper, who are both on new teams this season. It may be easy to assume that Cooper will take those vacated targets, but it is not a guarantee.
He is currently being drafted as early as the fifth round while on a team that ranked 28th worst in pass attempts with their starting quarterback. Couple that with a backup quarterback in either Jacoby Brissett or Watson who hasn’t played a single snap in a year and it spells trouble.
Instead, WRs D.J. Moore and Jerry Jeudy are going roughly around the same time and offer a much higher upside.
Our next player to avoid is in a similar boat to Cooper with regard to the quarterback position. After Ben Roethlisberger retired, the Pittsburgh Steelers picked up Mitchell Trubisky, a former starter for the Bears turned backup for the Bills. There was some optimism surrounding the move considering Trubisky has shown flashes of talent with potential as a mobile quarterback.
Then, the Steelers drafted Kenny Pickett and all of that went from relative fantasy predictability to complete obscurity.
Perhaps the player who will feel the biggest impact from the quarterback debacle is Chase Claypool. His fantasy production relied on big splash plays and long passes, which isn’t sustainable in fantasy. He set a precedent for this last year when he dropped from WR19 to WR37 when Roethlisberger was unable to throw the ball deep in 2021. Both Trubisky and Pickett are untested when it comes to the deep ball, where Claypool’s bread is buttered.
His ADP is compelling in the late ninth round. However, Steelers TE Pat Freiermuth is being drafted right after him and has a much safer floor in this offense.
As the rushing leader for the Jets, there was every indication that Michael Carter would take a step forward in 2022. That was until the Jets drafted Breece Hall in the second round, giving us a glimpse into the staff’s confidence level in Carter moving forward.
Carter rushed 147 times in 2021, but Tevin Coleman and Ty Johnson were annoyingly involved in the mix. With college football’s leading rusher in 2020 in Hall, who carries expensive draft capital, it’s hard to believe that Carter will remain the No. 1 back this season.
TE Mike Gesicki, QB Derek Carr, and WR Allen Lazard are all being drafted near the same pick as Carter and offer better opportunity than a possible RB2 in a committee backfield that ranked dead last in the NFL in rush attempts.
On a personal note, I have a saying that I believe holds true this year as it has in previous seasons: Never draft a Bills running back. You are bound to be frustrated, disappointed, and hate fantasy football.
I have heard people pound the table for Devin Singletary after his best season in 2021 since entering the league in 2019. He led the team with 188 rushing attempts, 870 yards, and seven touchdowns. That does not matter, folks. Despite his “breakout” season, he still finished as the RB20 in half-PPR and QB Josh Allen was literally right behind him in rushing stats. Allen rushed 122 times for 763 yards and six touchdowns. That’s not saying much for Singletary as the leading rusher for the Bills.
The organization likely agrees since they picked up James Cook as the third running back off the board in Round 2.
Cook doesn’t even need to take over as the lead back to plummet Singletary’s production, although there is a strong chance he might be able to do so. Any amount of touches taken away from Singletary is a disaster for fantasy.
In the eighth round, look instead for WR Hunter Renfrow, WR Elijah Moore, or RB Tony Pollard.
NEXT FIVE YOU MAY NOT BE ABLE TO AVOID, BUT DRAFT WITH CAUTION
There is so much hype surrounding Travis Etienne that it seems managers have forgotten we have yet to see him play in the NFL. Etienne’s season was cut short last year from a Lisfranc injury that required surgery. The running back is now fully healthy and ready to make a splash for the rebuilding Jacksonville Jaguars.
If you are new to football, be thankful you missed the egregious hot mess that was Urban Meyer as the head coach for the Jaguars. He singlehandedly buried them into the ground in his first experimental season as a head coach in the NFL. Now that that is fully behind them, Jacksonville made a smart move and brought on former Eagles head coach Doug Pederson.
This is excellent in terms of real football, not only for improved coaching but also for team morale. However, this has the potential to be devastating for Etienne’s production.
Pederson is one of those coaches who epitomizes the dreaded running back by committee (RBBC). Just take a look at the Eagles’ running backs from 2017 and on under Pederson and it’s easy to see that he likes to use his RBs in tandem. Who can blame him? He won the Super Bowl in 2017 with this approach. Even when he tried to use a single running back, whether by choice or pressure, they lost. It’s simply not his coaching style to use a single back. There is nothing that shows that Pederson will suddenly forsake years of a winning approach just to appease the fantasy masses that want Etienne (or James Robinson) to be the bellcow.
I am not saying that Etienne won’t be successful, but a pick in the early fourth round is steep for the production we’re likely to see. I would instead snag Diontae Johnson or Antonio Gibson in this round and then wait to pick up Robinson (if you want a piece of the committee) much later in the draft.
As a graduate of the University of Missouri, let me tell you that I have ZERO faith in Drew Lock in the NFL. While Geno Smith did a serviceable job in Russell Wilson‘s absence last season, neither of these two gentlemen are Wilson. Period.
DK Metcalf is on this list solely because of the quarterback play. It has zero to do with his talent. If his ADP was later, I wouldn’t mind taking a shot on him, but an early fourth-round pick is mind-boggling. In addition to the aforementioned Johnson and Gibson, I would also grab Michael Pittman Jr. instead, who will be catching passes from Matt Ryan instead of two perennial backups.
After finishing as the RB8 in 2020, managers had high hopes for Josh Jacobs last season. He did great as the bellcow, workhorse back, so clearly that trend would continue.
Unfortunately, that didn’t play out well after the Raiders added Kenyan Drake. Jacobs’ production dropped off significantly after the signing and he finished outside the RB1 tier as the RB14.
This alone should give managers a huge pause. The Raiders still have Drake on the roster, as well as Brandon Bolden and rookie Zamir White. Not to mention the fact that the Raiders added Davante Adams to the mix, which only increases the chances for more passing and less rushing.
Even worse than that, we have another Pederson-style coach with the new addition of Josh McDaniels from New England. During his tenure with the Patriots, McDaniels never had a running back that eclipsed both 200 carries and 35 receptions. Jacobs finished last season with 217 attempts and 54 receptions and still only finished as the RB14. With McDaniels in charge and Adams creating more opportunities for Derek Carr in the passing game, we are likely to see those numbers fall even further.
Jacobs is another fourth-round pick in half-PPR scoring. Again, I would look to Johnson, Gibson, or Pittman Jr. instead of Jacobs.
Let’s stick with the Raiders. As much as it pains me to say (which is a great deal, I assure you), Darren Waller may be in trouble this season.
Adding an elite wide receiver like Adams doesn’t cause a mild tremor for a team; it’s a nine earthquake on the Richter scale. His addition has massive implications across the board.
Perhaps the player who will be hurt the most by Adams’ presence is Waller, who finished last season second in targets for Las Vegas through 11 games. Renfrow led the team with 128 compared to Waller’s 93. Of course, Renfrow played in five more games, so there is an argument for target disparity. There is also the argument that Waller should be the most helped with Adams on the field, since defenses will scheme and double-team him instead of the tight end.
That does not mean that Renfrow has disappeared. Waller is a huge threat in the Raiders’ offense and opposing defenses know it. Whatever manpower they have left over after dealing with Adams will go to Waller as well as the run game. That leaves Renfrow wide open to gobble up targets and touchdowns.
If Waller did not have a fourth-round ADP and was going later in the draft, the risk would take care of itself. However, aside from Adams, it’s Renfrow (ADP 8.07), not Waller, who has the best return on investment and lower risk.
This may sound controversial considering Tyreek Hill is one of the names we associate with “elite wide receiver”. This is an excellent example of separating reality from name recognition.
There is no getting around the fact that Tua Tagovailoa is not Patrick Mahomes. Or, perhaps he is, but we haven’t seen him play a full season yet, so color me skeptical. That alone has knocked him down a peg in ADP from the first round to the mid-to-late second round.
Hill has more going against him than just a young quarterback. There are quite a few mouths to feed in this offense including Tagovailoa’s former college teammate Jaylen Waddle and their tight end, Mike Gesicki.
However, perhaps the biggest hurdle will be the structure of the offense as a whole under new head coach Mike McDaniel. As the former offensive coordinator for the 49ers, McDaniel is the brains behind the creative and explosive run game that made San Francisco a contender during his time there. Keeping with his brand, the team went shopping in bulk for running backs and added Chase Edmonds, Raheem Mostert, and Sony Michel to the ranks in addition to hanging onto Salvon Ahmed and Myles Gaskin.
That says to me that McDaniel is focused on the run game, which he is very good at, and less concerned with making sure Hill is fed targets in an already-crowded receiving corps.
Players like TE Mark Andrews, RB Saquon Barkley, QB Josh Allen, and RB Aaron Jones are all available where Hill is being drafted.
If you want to dive deeper into fantasy football, check out our award-winning slate of Fantasy Football Tools as you navigate your season. From our Start/Sit Assistant – which provides your optimal lineup based on accurate consensus projections – to our Waiver Wire Assistant, which allows you to quickly see which available players will improve your team and how much – we’ve got you covered this fantasy football season.
Lauren Carpenter is a fantasy football writer and analyst for various outlets in the industry. You can follow her on social media @stepmomlauren.
