It’s healthy to disagree. There are certainly plenty of takes this time of year around the fantasy football community. Some plant their flag on players as ‘their guys,’ while others are avoiding the same player at all cost. Let’s take a look at a few players that experts Derek Brown and Joe Dolan believer are currently ranked too high in our expert consensus rankings.

Rankings noted using FantasyPros half-PPR Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR).

JuJu Smith-Schuster (WR – KC): WR33

JuJu Smith-Schuster‘s current ranking as the WR33 in ECR is due to the “Patrick Mahomes effect.” This is spicy for a player who has seen his yards per route run decrease in each of the last four seasons, and his YAC per reception also fall in every season of his career (per PFF). Unfortunately, TikTok legend status won’t fill up the stat sheet or earn him more targets. Bypass Smith-Schuster and target Skyy Moore (WR57) later in drafts.

David Montgomery (RB – CHI): RB16

Despite being an entrenched workhorse, David Montgomery finished as a top-24 running back in fewer than half of his contests last season (46%). Former sixth-rounder Khalil Herbert was a top-12 running back in two of his five games last season when he received at least a 50% snap share.

Just don’t draft David Montgomery. Projected volume is the only reason he’s going where his ADP is, but a new coaching staff could approach the backfield differently. In my heart of hearts, I think Herbert is the better, more explosive back. Monty finished outside the top 24 in more than half of his games last season. His 2022 ADP hits inside the top-20 RBs. No thanks.

Nick Chubb (RB – CLE): RB9

Amari Cooper (WR – CLE): WR22

The looming suspension for Deshaun Watson still hangs over the Browns’ 2022 season outlook, and the downgrade to Jacoby Brissett is notable, but Amari Cooper is still ranked as the WR22. I keep trying to make sense of this ranking, but it’s tough. Cooper couldn’t even reach that realm last year with better quarterback play from Dak Prescott, as he finished as the WR25. I get that the consensus views him as the only show in town, but my love for David Njoku is well documented, so I won’t let that slight stand. Cooper is a player in decline, as he’s seen his yards per route run dip in each of the past three seasons. I can’t consider Cooper anything more than a volume-based mid-WR3 (WR29) in my rankings.

Damien Harris (RB – NE): RB27

I know what you’re thinking. Yes, Damien Harris was the RB14 on the season last year. What some people fail to realize, however, is that 42% of his fantasy production came from touchdowns. In 2021, Harris scored 15 touchdowns. All were scored on the ground, which was tied for the second most in the league. As many of us know, touchdowns are not a sticky stat. Meaning, they are hard to project and are not consistent year to year.

In fact, on a per-game basis, Harris was the RB20, scoring 14.2 fantasy points per game. Keeping his production from last season but taking away just five scores, Harris would have still put up 10 touchdowns. This would be good for the sixth-best mark in the league. However, in doing so, he would have dropped to RB23 on the season. A steep drop-off for a player scoring just five fewer touchdowns. The reason? The lack of a receiving role.

In his 15 games last season, Harris drew just 21 targets. Catching 18 of them, good for 60th in the league, he added only 132 receiving yards to his production. Harris possesses no upside when it comes to fantasy football. Today, to have the advantage in fantasy leagues, running backs need to catch the ball. Due to his lack of work in the passing game, Harris saw over 50% of the snaps in just three games. If a running back is seeing the field just half of the time, he better be getting used in the passing game. This is a big red flag for Harris. This, along with some expected touchdown regression and the emergence of Rhamondre Stevenson, puts Harris on the do not draft list.

Aaron Jones (RB – GB): RB10

There is no denying the talent that Aaron Jones has as a lethal weapon in the Packers’ offense. While Jones was an elite receiving option for QB Aaron Rodgers, ranking 10th in receiving yards and seventh in targets amongst RBs on a per-game basis, Jones only rushed for 799 yards in 2021 (21st amongst RBs). The lack of rushing could hold Jones back as an elite fantasy RB in 2022, especially with fellow RB A.J. Dillon expecting a larger workload following his emergence in the Packers’ offense during his first two years in the league. It seems the only way Jones could reach his rich price tag as the RB10 in 2022 is if he can produce a similar elite target share, though it seems unlikely with Dillon cutting into his workload in the Packers’ backfield.

Antonio Gibson (RB – WAS): RB19

Antonio Gibson has been a solid option over the last two seasons as the RB16 and RB17 in fantasy points per game. He also ranked tenth in yards per route run, fifth in evaded tackles, and 14th in juke rate. He was tied for seventh in carries inside the five-yard line and eighth in weighted opportunities. We already know the pass game usage is capped with J.D. McKissic resigned, but now the goalline could be in jeopardy with Brian Robinson on the depth chart. The team has talked about lightening Gibson’s load, so the threat of Robinson is real, especially if Gibson keeps putting the ball on the turf. Since 2020 he’s tied with Ezekiel Elliott for the most fumbles (six) in the NFL among running backs.

Pat Freiermuth (TE – PIT): TE11

It’s fun to hear Steelers fans yell “MUUUUTH!” after Pat Freiermuth receptions. I think it will be less fun to have Freiermuth on your fantasy team this season. A big chunk of his 2021 value was derived from seven TDs on 60 catches. It’s great that dusty Ben Roethlisberger only had eyes for Freiermuth near the end zone, but will Mitch Trubisky and/or Kenny Pickett lock onto Freiermuth in the same way? Freiermuth averaged 8.3 yards per catch and 6.3 yards per target last year. Those aren’t numbers that scream “gotta have” to me.

Michael Thomas (WR – NO): WR28

Maybe Michael Thomas is still the same guy who had 149 catches for 1,725 yards in 2019. Who knows? He’s played seven games in the last two years and was out for all of 2021 with ankle problems. He’s 29 now and Drew Brees is no longer his quarterback. No one expects another 149-catch season, but it feels like we still might be overshooting the mark in expecting a WR2 season from a player who’s been out for so long and is returning to a totally different environment.

Robert Woods (WR – TEN): WR44

The prospects of Robert Woods bouncing back at age 30 post ACL were already dim, but landing with the Titans makes it even less likely. Before 2021 Woods was a player who looked to be on the back nine of his NFL career. His yards per route run had declined in each of the past four seasons. So his slight rebound in 2021 in this department is also fool’s gold. Woods did record a 1.74 yards per route run mark, but this was primarily inflated by his blowup game against the Seahawks, where he logged 4.17 yards per route run (per PFF).

He didn’t crest 1.5 yards per route run in five of his nine games played (per PFF). Now Woods finds himself on the wrong side of 30, recovering from a major injury, and on an offense that was 22nd in neutral pace with the fifth-highest neutral rushing rate in 2021. None of this culminates in a recipe for success in 2022.

FantasyPros Staff Consensus 2022 Redraft Fantasy Football Rankings