Being safe might prevent you from missing the playoffs, but upside is ultimately what wins championships. In the end, the managers who take home titles are the ones most willing to swing for the fences, hoping to hit some home runs. If you’re not first, you’re last … but to be first, you have to take on risk, which opens you up to finishing last. While risk isn’t directly proportional to upside, they are correlated. Yeah, J.K. Dobbins looked like a superstar late in the 2020 season, but is he healthy enough to be a bell cow, or will he be stuck in a timeshare with Gus Edwards and Mike Davis? Sure, Jerry Jeudy has a QB who can get him quality targets, but he hasn’t scored many touchdowns and hasn’t had as much success as teammates Courtland Sutton and Tim Patrick.
Every opportunity to succeed also comes with the chance of failure. The only way to get ahead and give yourself the edge is to conduct your own research and figure out whose ceiling is high enough to outweigh the risk associated with their draft cost. Our featured pundits are here to help you jump-start that research by sharing their top high-upside options relative to their average draft position (ADP).
Q1. Which RB comes with the most upside at his current positional half-PPR ADP, and which player(s) would you pass on with a higher ADP at his position?
Cordarrelle Patterson (ATL): Consensus ADP – RB33 | 88th Overall
“Cordarrelle Patterson is already 31 years old, but he has relatively little wear on his body, given that last year was his first with 100-plus carries. As a Deebo Samuel-esque “wide back” hybrid, Patterson amassed 1,166 yards and 11 touchdowns from scrimmage in 2022. This year he has a decent chance to replicate his usage of 153 carries and 69 targets given that the Falcons will be without RB Mike Davis (release) and WRs Calvin Ridley (suspension) and Russell Gage (free agency). As intriguing as fifth-round RB Tyler Allgeier might be, he’s unlikely to push Patterson off the field, and first-round WR Drake London probably won’t claim all 146 targets vacated by Ridley and Gage. I’d pass on Chase Edmonds.”
– Matthew Freedman (FantasyPros)
D’Andre Swift (DET): Consensus ADP – RB9 | 15th Overall
“D’Andre Swift is easily my favorite part of the Lions offense and deserves to be a high second-round pick. Swift was RB9 in points per game (half-point scoring) in 10 games played before his injury. He led all running backs in receptions (53) and averaged nearly 19 touches per game (ninth-best at the position). Considering Swift only earned 26 red-zone touches last season — outside the top 30 — there’s room for his touchdown output to grow. Through the first seven weeks of the year, Swift posted 22 red-zone touches (a pace of 53 over a 17-game season). I’m taking him over guys like Javonte Williams and Nick Chubb due to the pass-catching ceiling. ”
– Andrew Erickson (FantasyPros)
Christian McCaffrey (CAR): Consensus ADP – RB3 | 3rd Overall
“No running back has a higher upside than Christian McCaffrey — not even Jonathan Taylor. Since becoming a feature back in 2018, McCaffrey has averaged 22.3 half-PPR fantasy points per game. A medley of injuries (non-ligament injuries, thankfully) limited CMC to 10 games over the last two years. That’s the risk with a 205-pound workhorse. But the potential reward is a treasure chest of fantasy points from this electric run-catch threat. I’d draft Jonathan Taylor over McCaffrey because of JT’s squeaky-clean medical history, but I’d certainly take McCaffrey over Austin Ekeler, who has an ADP of RB2. Ekeler is bound to encounter TD regression and will probably cede some early-down work to rookie Isaiah Spiller.”
– Pat Fitzmaurice (FantasyPros)
Ken Walker III (SEA): Consensus ADP – RB34 | 90th Overall
“I’m going with a rookie who just saw someone in his backfield retire. Yup, it’s Kenneth Walker. For now, Walker may play second fiddle to Rashaad Penny, but talent and health will prevail by mid-season. I’m willing to take Walker over a stable running back in Devin Singletary because of Walker’s ability to be a workhorse back. We’ve seen what a running back in Seattle could do when they saw the bulk of the work. Devin Singletary has been solid, but Buffalo has made it clear they want more from the position. ”
– Steven Pintado (The Fantasy Coaches)
Q2. Which WR comes with the most upside at his current positional half-PPR ADP, and which player(s) would you pass on with a higher ADP at his position?
Mike Williams (LAC): Consensus ADP – WR19 | 53rd Overall
“Mike Williams was the WR1 in half-PPR fantasy scoring through the first five weeks of the 2021 season. A tweaked knee slowed him down during the middle part of the season, but he finished strong, with two 100-yard performances in his last five games and TD catches in each of his last two games. Williams is a big-time playmaker with career averages of 16.1 yards per catch and 9.3 yards per target, and at 27 he’s squarely in his prime. Williams’ ADP is WR19, but there’s top-five upside here. I’d rather have Williams than teammate Keenan Allen, Diontae Johnson, D.K. Metcalf or Jaylen Waddle, all of whom have higher ADPs.”
– Pat Fitzmaurice (FantasyPros)
“Mike Williams finished the season as the WR23 in fantasy points per game (with career highs in targets, catches and yards per route run) despite cooling off considerably in the later weeks, in addition to leaving a boatload of touchdown production on the table. Through the first five weeks of the season, the big-bodied wideout was first in WR scoring just ahead of Cooper Kupp. The sky’s the limit with the Chargers offense, and the production from positive TD regression could easily vault Williams over Keenan Allen in fantasy across all formats despite the latter’s higher projected target share. I’m willing to pass on Allen’s high floor for a chance at Williams’ upside at a discounted ADP. Remember, Big Mike outscored Allen last season.”
– Andrew Erickson (FantasyPros)
Drake London (ATL): Consensus ADP – WR42 | 106th Overall
“Drake London is precisely the kind of rookie receiver I want to take a chance on. He’s big (6-4, 219 pounds), he’s young (21 years old in July), and he’s entering the NFL early (as a junior). He has elite draft capital (pick No. 8), and he had strong college production (88-1,084-7 receiving in eight games in his final season). The USC product could be the next Larry Fitzgerald or Mike Evans with those attributes. I’d pass on DeAndre Hopkins.”
– Matthew Freedman (FantasyPros)
Chris Olave (NO): Consensus ADP – WR47 | 116th Overall
“Chris Olave has a ton of upside at his current ADP of 116 overall. Olave has an early chance to be the Saints WR1 on the offense with Michael Thomas still recovering and Jarvis Landry slightly past his prime. I’m looking to take Olave over Rashod Bateman, whose ADP is 89th overall. Bateman may be the WR1 on the team; the Ravens should get back to being at the bottom of the league in pass attempts. The Saints with Jameis Winston should get to be a high-powered passing unit. ”
– Steven Pintado (The Fantasy Coaches)
Q3. Which TE comes with the most upside at his current positional half-PPR ADP, and which player(s) would you pass on with a higher ADP at his position?
Albert Okwuegbunam (DEN): Consensus ADP – TE15 | 141st Overall
“Albert Okwuegbunam last year had just 40 targets, but among tight ends to hit that threshold he was seventh and ninth in yards per route (2.0) and routes per target (4.2). The target competition will be tough with WRs Jerry Jeudy, Courtland Sutton, Tim Patrick and K.J. Hamler — but if Okwuegbunam becomes a regular contributor, he will likely smash market expectations, and rookie TE Greg Dulcich seems unlikely to challenge Okwuegbunam in a serious way this year given his third-round draft capital. I’d pass on Mike Gesicki.”
– Matthew Freedman (FantasyPros)
“Albert Okwuegbunam is 6-6, 258 pounds with 4.49 speed, which works out to a 100th percentile speed score. In college, he broke out with 11 TD catches at the University of Missouri as a 19-year-old freshman. He’s shown flashes of playmaking ability in his first two NFL seasons, and now he gets a big QB upgrade with Russell Wilson. There may be competition from rookie TE Greg Dulcich, but the 24-year-old Albert O has a chance to turn a big profit at a 12th-round ADP of TE18. At that price, if he doesn’t work out quickly, it won’t be that painful to cut him. I’d rather have Okwuegbunam than Irv Smith, Robert Tonyan or David Njoku.”
– Pat Fitzmaurice (FantasyPros)
Kyle Pitts (ATL): Consensus ADP – TE3 | 36th Overall
“Hard to beat the potential upside of the uber-talented Kyle Pitts entering his second season. As a 21-year-old rookie, Pitts finished third among tight ends in receiving yards (1,018, 60 per game). The last two 21-year-old rookies (Justin Jefferson, JuJu Smith-Schuster) to average at least 60 yards/game as rookies (which Pitts also did) reached 1,400 yards in their second seasons. I’d rather take the upside on the unicorn talent in Round 3 versus paying a premium for an older veteran in Travis Kelce, or Mark Andrews in an offense that figures to dial back its passing attempts in 2022. ”
– Andrew Erickson (FantasyPros)
Zach Ertz (ARI): Consensus ADP – TE10 | 97th Overall
“Zach Ertz has the potential for a big season, especially with DeAndre Hopkins serving a six-game suspension and new addition Hollywood Brown dealing with a hamstring issue. Ertz sits at ADP 97 overall and could outproduce another tight going 30 picks earlier. TJ Hockenson may be young and talented, but the new weapons the Lions brought in and Hockenson’s injury history are reasons for concern. Ertz easily could be the number one target and produce elite TE numbers in 2022. ”
– Steven Pintado (The Fantasy Coaches)
Thanks to the experts for sharing their advice! For more of their insight, be sure to follow each pundit on Twitter (click their names above) and visit their respective sites.
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