I hope you’re enjoying the All-Star break, all. I’m writing this about 90 minutes before first pitch in the game that Sandy Alcantara should be starting.
Each week, I’ll address 10 burning questions that I’m looking either for answers to during the week or questions that may help fantasy managers navigate the week-to-week grind of their team.
Since we have a bit of a break from the season, I will aim the questions toward the unofficial second half of the season. Let’s get started.
Will Austin Meadows (OF, DH – DET) hit a home run this year?
The “don’t bet against the Rays” saying is kind of old, as they have made several mistakes in the past. But those that back the saying are looking smart right now after the trade with the Tigers that netted them Isaac Paredes for Austin Meadows.
It’s become sort of a funny “haha” joke moment with Meadows this year, as he is one of 14 players with at least 140 plate appearances who has yet to hit a home run this year. What’s more, he has just 20 combined runs and RBIs.
As you might suspect, the other names on this list aren’t exactly the who’s who of baseball players.
While he hasn’t exactly been good, he does have 2.5 expected home runs on the year, so I do expect him to at least end up with five by the end of the season.
Will Sandy Alcantara (SP – MIA) finish the season with a sub-2 ERA?
The answer is, of course, no. We can’t expect that from anyone. Currently, Alcantara is sitting at 1.76 on the season, which is over 138.1 innings. He shoves on the mound and consistently gives you seven innings each time out. Not five. Not six. Seven.
We could be lazy and look at his xERA (2.56), but two things with that:
- We are looking at what he’s doing going forward, not what he’s done.
- Expected numbers are weird this season with the new ball(s).
So, no. We can’t expect Sandy Alcantara to end up with a sub-2 ERA. But even with expected regression, 2.50-2.75 seems achievable for the ace and possibly best pitcher in baseball.
How many innings will we get from Jacob deGrom (SP – NYM) moving forward?
It looks like Jacob deGrom will return to the Mets’ rotation shortly after the break. That’s a great treat for the Mets and fantasy managers. But it’s an even better time to trade him.
Look, he may be deGrom moving forward and just put up insane numbers the rest of the season. But the smart move is to bet against it and minimize the risk by dealing with the oft-injured ace. The projection models have him around 60 innings the rest of the season. That’s about 10 starts, roughly.
I’m going to take the Under on that and save he’ll pitch around 43 innings going forward.
Will Julio Rodriguez be a top-five pick next year?
A friend of mine traded Julio Rodriguez, and I just didn’t understand why. He was afraid of the rookie crash. But Rodriguez is just different.
And it could be a prisoner of the moment after the show he put on Monday night, but he was already No. 2 in my dynasty rankings moving forward. So for next year, yeah. I think it’s safe to say he’s top five.
Who is he with? Great question.
In no order:
- Rodriguez
- Ronald Acuna Jr. (DH, OF – ATL)
- Juan Soto (OF – WSH)
- Fernando Tatis Jr. (SS, OF – SDP)
- Jose Ramirez (3B, DH – CLE)
- Shohei Ohtani (SP, DH – LAA): If a daily move league
The speed, power, discipline and hit tool that he brings make him a no-brainer first-rounder for me.
Who will be the biggest name moved at the trade deadline?
If you believe what Buster Olney says these days, the Nationals are looking to move Juan Soto by the trade deadline this year. That’s… wild.
I could give you a think piece on which teams should get him, but about 68 of those are out there. One more would be nice but unnecessary. But let’s forget Soto for a second.
If he doesn’t go, who will be the other big names?
Willson Contreras (C, DH – CHC): It seems like a lock he’ll be dealt at this point.
C.J. Cron (1B, DH – COL): The slugger is available and has team control through next year.
Luis Castillo (SP – CIN): We’ve heard this for a few years now. Yankees, Blue Jays and the Red Sox make sense as a landing spot.
Xander Bogaerts (SS – BOS)/Rafael Devers (3B – BOS): Have the Red Sox learned nothing from the Mookie Betts situation?
Andrew Benintendi (OF – KC): The teams that need him are in the AL East, and he can’t give them a shot in the arm because he’s afraid of, well, a shot in the arm.
Frankie Montas (SP – OAK): If his shoulder is right, he could be the most coveted player on the block with his control.
Shohei Ohtani (SP, DH – LAA): There’s like a .01 percent chance it happens this year. But next year? I think it happens.
What’s your one bold prediction for the second half?
My one bold prediction for the second half is that Trevor Rogers (SP – MIA) recaptures his 2021 self and reestablishes himself as a must-start fantasy pitcher.
It comes down to the changeup for Rogers – go figure, as a Miami pitcher – and if Rogers can reclaim that magic, we’ll see fantasy managers slowly trust him again.
What’s your second bold prediction for the second half?
Alek Kirilloff (1B, OF – MIN): It’s not a Michael Waterloo article without hyping up the GOD. Alek Kirilloff continues his breakout and becomes the catalyst behind the Twins’ ALCS run.
Kirilloff has been locked in since returning from Triple-A, finally showing the breakout potential we hoped to see from him.
I think we see a .280 average with 13 home runs and 60 combined RBIs and runs going forward.
Which player are you keeping the closest eye on moving forward?
Oneil Cruz (SS – PIT): Without a doubt. Oneil Cruz is very exciting, but he’s also striking out a ton. He’s surprisingly been an excellent defender – beyond just the missiles he throws across the field.
He seems slightly overmatched right now, to the point that columnists in Pittsburgh are saying he should be sent down. I disagree with that, as he’s at a point in his development where you give him a chance to figure it out at the big-league level.
Pitchers adjust to hitters, and hitters adjust back. I’m keeping a close eye on Cruz to see if he ends the season more like Aaron Judge or Franchy Cordero.
Who are some players rostered in 50 percent of leagues or fewer I should target?
Here are 10 hitters and pitchers who you should add to your watchlist who are available in 21-50 percent of leagues (using Yahoo rostership numbers).
Hitters:
- Nathaniel Lowe (1B – TEX)
- Esteury Ruiz (2B/OF – SDP)
- Alex Kirilloff (1B/OF – MIN)
- Nolan Jones (3B – CLE)
- Vinnie Pasquantino (1B – KCR)
Pitchers:
- Jake Odorizzi (SP – HOU)
- Max Meyer (SP – MIA)
- Tyler Wells (SP – BAL)
- John Schreiber (RP – BOS)
- Aaron Ashby (SP/RP – MIL)
What About 20 Percent?
Like above, here are 10 hitters and pitchers rostered in 20 percent of Yahoo leagues or fewer who should be on your deep-league radar.
Hitters:
- Adam Frazier (2B – SEA)
- Francisco Alvarez (C – NYM)
- Danny Jansen (C – TOR)
- Cal Raleigh (C – SEA)
- Darick Hall (DH – PHI)
Pitchers:
- Bailey Ober (SP – MIN)
- Roansy Contreras (SP – PIT)
- Andres Munoz (RP – SEA)
- Felix Bautista (RP – BAL)
- Reid Detmers (SP – LAA)
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Michael Waterloo is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Michael, check out his archive and follow him @MichaelWaterloo.