Week 10 is the final week of the USFL regular season. All of the playoff spots are locked up. The teams meeting next week to represent the North Division in the championship have a tune-up against each other this week, disincentivizing showing their hands. Instead, as broadcaster Joel Klatt said a few weeks ago — paraphrasing — both teams will probably put out bait. In addition, the Stars and Generals could rest starters to avoid injuries. So, they’re entirely unrepresented this week.
The Maulers have been a mess, and head coach Kirby Wilson’s playing time distribution has been head-scratching. Thus, they’re also wholesale fades. A few members of the Breakers and Stallions are featured, but they’re also risky since the team could exercise caution with starters. Simply, this week is filled with landmines and uncertainty, making it a highly speculative DFS slate. Additionally, risk-averse gamers are advised to scale back their handle.
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Quarterbacks
Most of the quarterbacks in the USFL have endured musical chairs. However, Jordan Ta'amu has essentially avoided a messy quarterback rotation. Maybe, with the Bandits eliminated last week, they'll take a more extended look at Brady White. Regardless, that's entirely speculative.
Thus, Ta'amu's ceiling is unmatched. He's scored at least 22 DraftKings points in three games, including last week's 22.1 DK point effort. In Week 9, he ran for a season-high 86 yards and passed for his second-highest yardage total (288). According to FOX Sports, Ta'amu is second in passing yards per game (198.9) and 11th in rushing yards per game (38.1), the most among quarterbacks. As a result, Ta'amu is the top signal-caller.
However, salary considered, Kenji Bahar is an intriguing alternative. He's moved up the depth chart to full-time starter with Clayton Thorson hurt. Also, like Ta'amu, he adds value on the ground, evidenced by rushing for 85 yards in his previous two games. Bahar's passing ceiling isn't as high as Ta'amu's, but he passed for a season-high 164 yards while completing a rock-solid 66.7% of his passes in Week 9. Perhaps, Bahar is rounding into better form with more reps as the starter.
It's not difficult to fit the top players in this piece under the salary cap. So, the salary discount from Ta'amu isn't as valuable as it might seem. Still, Bahar's stranglehold on an every-down role and rushing ability make him a legitimate challenger for the top quarterback honor this week.
Running Backs
Bo Scarbrough slipped to second fiddle for playing time in Birmingham's backfield last week. According to Ian Hartitz and Pro Football Focus (PFF), Scarbrough had a 40% snap share and 16% route participation rate, falling short of C.J. Marable's 60% and 57%, respectively. However, Scarbrough led the backfield with 11 carries, marking four straight contests with 11 carries or more.
The big back hasn't done much in the passing game, and the Stallions might ease his usage before their playoff game. Conversely, he might still be working into game shape after signing with the team before Week 5 and debuting in that game. Additionally, Scarbrough is a handful around the goal line, making him a candidate to provide value by hitting pay dirt.
The best back this week is Reggie Corbin if he returned from an absence with an injury last week. He was deemed questionable before Week 9, suggesting he wasn't a slam dunk to miss the game and could progress to playing this week. Corbin leads the USFL with 73.4 rushing yards per game, gashing defenses for a blistering 6.0 yards per attempt.
If Corbin is out, salary considered, Anthony Jones is an attractive punt. He's basically splitting backfield work with Jordan Ellis. However, Jones held a decided advantage in route participation (59% versus 33%) last week. He's also punched in a couple of short rushing touchdowns, making him a presence in scoring territory. Since there are significant questions about all the running backs, spending down at the position to have maximum cap space for the pass-catchers on DK's full-point point-per-reception (PPR) platform is smart.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
First, let's look at Houston's duo, bookending the wide receivers and tight ends as the most and least expensive options. Isaiah Zuber and Tyler Palka are the top options to stack with Bahar. In Week 9, per PFF, Zuber played 96% of Houston's snaps with an immaculate 100% route participation rate. Meanwhile, Palka was at only 52% and 69% for snaps and routes, but he had a team-high eight targets, 54 air yards, six receptions and 83 yards. Conversely, Zuber accounted for the team's only touchdown, hauling in three receptions for 31 yards and a touchdown, his USFL-high fifth receiving touchdown.
Lance Lenoir and Joe Walker are also enticing teammates. Lenoir has been a target hog this year, fetching at least seven targets in eight of nine games and netting at least nine in seven. He's parlayed his steady diet of looks into at least 11.0 DK points five times, including four times in his last five games.
Walker has been quiet most of the year, but he's had at least eight targets in three of his previous four games. Most importantly, he's coming off a season-high seven receptions, 129 yards and two touchdowns, tying his season high with nine targets. Walker also had a gaudy team-leading 161 air yards. Further, Hartitz said Walker earned the second-highest PFF grade among offensive players in Week 9.
Rashard Davis is chiefly a stacking option with Ta'amu and less attractive as a standalone pick. Still, in Week 9, he led the Bandits in targets (six), air yards (71), receptions (six), receiving yards (112) and caught the only touchdown. Sadly, his 50% snap share and 54% route participation were alarming and provided pause. Yet, the glass-half-full outlook is his boom week could garner more usage in the regular-season finale.
Finally, Marlon Williams had excellent underlying stats in Week 9 that bode well for his Week 10 outlook. Last week, he had an 88% snap share, 95% route participation rate, 12 targets and 113 air yards. Unfortunately, Williams' mouthwatering usage resulted in just seven catches for 65 yards. Still, a repeat performance would be welcomed at his modest salary, and there's upside for more. For instance, look no further than his seven receptions for 109 yards in Week 8 and five grabs for 74 yards and a touchdown in Week 5. This season, Williams leads the USFL with 55.5 receiving yards per game. Thus, he's underpriced relative to his stellar production.
Defense and Special Teams
The Stallions and Gamblers are both ends of the salary spectrum. Birmingham's elite defense has been the backbone of their 8-1 record. The Stallions have allowed the second-fewest points per game (15.9) and least yards per game (267.1). Additionally, their elite pass rush has resulted in a tie for the most sacks (23), and they've forced 15 turnovers.
The Gamblers have coughed up the second-most points per game (21.9). However, they've been elite at causing havoc, ranking third in sacks (22) and second in turnovers forced (19). So, their ability to pile up sacks and turnovers is fantasy friendly and belies their salary, the lowest among all teams.
USFL Week 10 Betting Odds, Previews, Picks
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
