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Let’s take a look at players Derek Brown and Andrew Erickson are targeting based on their Underdog ADP.
- Underdog Quarterbacks to Target
- Underdog Quarterbacks to Avoid
- Underdog Running Backs to Target
- Underdog Running Backs to Avoid
- Underdog Wide Receivers to Target
- Underdog Wide Receivers to Avoid
Best Ball Draft Advice: Players the Experts are Targeting
Cole Kmet (CHI)
TE10, +7 vs. Best Ball ADP
No tight end should make a bigger leap in 2022 than the third-year tight end, whose upside has been capped by a lack of touchdown equity with veteran Jimmy Graham rearing his ugly head the past few seasons. But Graham’s currently a free agent, opening the door for Kmet to smash in 2022. Kmet’s eighth-ranked route participation and seventh-ranked target share (17%) from 2021 hardly align with his fantasy production – no tight end finished with more fantasy points under expectation (-36.6) than the Notre Dame product in 2021. That designation is a sign Kmet is due for a fantasy breakout. It signaled as much for guys like Zach Ertz and Dawson Knox, who scored fewer points than expected in 2020 before contributing in fantasy this year. Both tight ends finished 2021 as top-10 options at the position in fantasy points per game. The Chicago Bears hired offensive coordinator Luke Getsy to pair with second-year quarterback Justin Fields. Getsy should be able to build an offense more conducive to Fields’ mobility – something he had success with at Mississippi State as its former OC. An overall offensive boost should help fuel Kmet as 2022’s breakout tight end. He has the requisite size and athleticism, sporting an 87th-percentile height, 88th-percentile vertical jump, and 89th-percentile broad jump. Kmet checks off all the boxes for a tight end breakout, and that’s exactly why I have him ranked three spots ahead of consensus at TE13.
– Andrew Erickson
Irv Smith (MIN)
TE10, +6 vs. Best Ball ADP
Assuming Irv Smith is at full health to start the season, he could compete with Adam Thielen as the second target in Minnesota behind Justin Jefferson. Let’s not forget that Smith was eighth in yards per target and second in QBR when targeted among tight ends in 2020. The Vikings surprised everyone by ranking 12th in neutral passing rate and eighth in neutral pace last year. If that repeats, the volume will be there for Smith. As an unrestricted free agent in 2023, Smith should be heavily motivated to post career-best numbers.
– Derek Brown
2022 Consensus Best Ball Rankings
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