Third-Year Players Rankings & Notes: Wide Receivers (2022 Fantasy Football)

While NFL seems to stand for ‘Not For Long’ more and more every year, players entering the league with decent draft capital tend to get at least three years to show their ability. Of course, some break out earlier, while others don’t get even a third year to prove themselves. Let’s take a look at third-year players, including rankings and player notes.

Player rankings based on our redraft Expert Consensus Rankings for half-PPR leagues.

• Third-Year Players Rankings & Notes: Quarterbacks
• Third-Year Players Rankings & Notes: Running Backs

Notable Third-Year Fantasy Football Players: Wide Receivers

Justin Jefferson (MIN): WR2
Justin Jefferson has been a revelation since entering the league. He has the most receiving yards in NFL history (3,016) in a player’s first two seasons and is PFF’s second-highest-graded receiver over that span (91.7). The Minnesota Vikings wide receiver finished 2021 as the WR4 in fantasy points per game (19.5 PPR) and expected fantasy points per game (18.8). Jefferson was the model of consistency at just 22 years old, finishing as a weekly top-20 wide receiver in 76% of his games (13 of 17) while commanding the league’s third-highest target share (27%) and No. 1 air yards share (44%).

CeeDee Lamb (DAL): WR6
The engines are ready for ignition. CeeDee Lamb‘s rocket ship to the moon is prepped for launch. Last season Lamb was 13th in yards per route run in the regular season (minimum 50 targets per PFF) while excelling as a bully after the catch. He was fifth in missed tackles forced among wide receivers. With Amari Cooper gone and Michael Gallup likely to start the season limited, Lamb can take another step forward as an ascending alpha wide receiver.

Tee Higgins (CIN): WR12
Tee Higgins‘ 23% target rate per route run was higher than Ja’Marr Chase‘s 21% during the 2021 regular season as was his 25% target share in the games they played together when healthy. There’s no denying that WR1 overall upside exists with Chase in 2022, but Higgins’ constant command of targets in a loaded Cincinnati offense will make him a screaming value in 2022 fantasy drafts.

Michael Pittman Jr. (IND): WR14
Pittman got the true WR1 treatment from the Colts coaching staff in 2021, running a route on 96% of offensive dropbacks – third to only Cooper Kupp (WR1) and Ja’Marr Chase (WR4) through 17 weeks. He also finished the season tied for the league’s eighth-highest target share (24%), which was 11 percentage points higher than the next closest Colt, Zach Pascal, at 13%. He also made 18 highlight-reel contested catches – fourth-most in the NFL. And his 31% target share from Weeks 13-18 cemented his place in Indy’s WR1 chair heading into 2022. With Matt Ryan under center Pittman has the volume potential to be a top-12 fantasy option. Ryan has a history of fueling top-end fantasy WRs like Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley, making a top-five finish not all that crazy for Big Mike in 2022. Don’t forget that last season, Ridley as the Falcons’ No. 1 receiver owned the sixth-highest target rate per route run and ranked second among all wide receivers in expected fantasy points per game (16.5).

Jerry Jeudy (DEN): WR22
Entering Year 3, Jerry Jeudy finally has a quarterback who can take full advantage of his ability to separate from defenders – 96th percentile separation percentage in 2021 – with Russell Wilson taking the reins. With Courtland Sutton and Tim Patrick operating from the outside, Jeudy figures to become Wilson’s go-to target in the slot unless K.J. Hamler pushes him out. Jeudy’s efficiency metrics should also see a massive boost now that he’s catching passes from a future Hall-of-Fame quarterback, but it remains to be seen if Jeudy will play an ancillary role as a red-zone threat. Upgrading from Drew Lock and Teddy Bridgewater to Wilson is great for Jeudy, but we have to remember that he is still an unproven fantasy commodity. Great route-running and separation skills aside, he hasn’t scored many fantasy points the last two seasons. And that’s not the case with every Denver receiver, because Patrick’s production last two seasons earned him a three-year, $34.5 million contract extension. Even so, Jeudy should easily experience his best NFL season to date in 2022, but it may not be as great as some die-hard Jeudy stans would care to admit. There are a lot of weapons in Denver, and predicting Wilson’s best option on a week-to-week basis was often a challenge when it was only between DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. As with those Seahawks receivers, there are going to be inconsistent weeks from Jeudy. And his lack of red-zone usage makes him more susceptible to bust games without having a touchdown opportunity to fall back on.

Darnell Mooney (CHI): WR25
Darnell Mooney is poised to take another step forward this season. Last year his 1.72 yards per route run (40th, minimum 50 targets per PFF) won’t blow you away, but the inherent volume he’s walking into and Justin Fields taking another step forward will be the tide to help fantasy gamers raise “ships.” Last season in the five games without Allen Robinson on the field, Mooney averaged 9.6 targets and 78.2 receiving yards per game. The yardage mark would have been the seventh-highest mark. Mooney’s median is a low-end WR2 or high-end WR3, but if he garners more than 11 red-zone targets (38th) he received last year, he could vault even higher.

Gabriel Davis (BUF): WR37
Gabriel Davis averaged 19.8 fantasy points per game (PPR) and 16.0 expected fantasy points per game in his last six games while running a route on 88% of dropbacks as the Bills finally emphasized his playing time in the offense.As a strong bet to earn the No. 2 wide receiver job come opening day, Davis has a legitimate shot to be a reliable fantasy option in a Josh Allen-led offense in 2022.

Brandon Aiyuk (SF): WR41
After escaping the Kyle Shanahan doghouse, Brandon Aiyuk played at least 82% of snaps in every game after Week 7. Over that stretch, his efficiency was off the charts as he was 13th in yards per route run (minimum 25 targets, per PFF). The problem for Aiyuk is his per route prowess didn’t equate to fantasy production as he was the WR50 in fantasy points per game across those 11 games. While Aiyuk’s talent is apparent, he resides on a run-first offense with little touchdown equity (44th in red-zone targets).

Chase Claypool (PIT): WR43
Chase Claypool‘s second-year breakout was inevitably halted by Ben Roethlisberger’s lack of downfield throwing ability: On throws with 20-plus air yards, Big Ben graded 31st out of 38 qualifying QBs.Claypool commanded a 27% air yards share on the season and led the team in the metric over the final four weeks. Better days should be ahead of the Notre Dame product if Pittsburgh can get better downfield quarterback play from Kenny Pickett/Mitchell Trubisky. Claypool is also due for positive touchdown regression after catching just one of his 12 end-zone targets last season. The 6-foot-5 monster is no stranger to hitting paydirt, after being one of eight wide receivers to score double-digit touchdowns as rookies since 1998. However, Claypool’s range of outcomes is quite wide heading into his third season with 2022 second-round pick George Pickens, chomping at the bit to be the No. 2 on the offense behind Diontae Johnson.

Van Jefferson (LAR): WR63
Last season, Van Jefferson showed some life, finishing with a career-high 802 receiving yards and six scores as the WR41 in fantasy points per game. Jefferson should reprise his field-stretching role for the Rams this year on the outside opposite Allen Robinson. Last year Jefferson was 11th in aDOT, but with a route win rate ranked 91st, his ceiling games will be scattered despite Matthew Stafford‘s proclivity for going deep.

Laviska Shenault Jr. (JAC): WR72
Laviska Shenault looks like the odd-man-out entering Year 3 with Christian Kirk, Marvin Jones, and Zay Jones ahead of him in the target pecking order. Viska-stans might need a trade for him to revive his plummeting fantasy value. Because his team-leading 21% target rate per route run on 99 targets does suggest that maybe he’s not as bad as the market perceives him. Especially considering the wide receivers going into Year 3 drafted in Round 2 that have eclipsed 170 targets since 2018 is a solid group to be associated with. Those names include JuJu Smith-Schuster, D.K. Metcalf, Tee Higgins, Chase Claypool, Courtland Sutton, A.J. Brown, Michael Pittman Jr., and Christian Kirk.

Donovan Peoples-Jones (CLE): WR78
Donovan Peoples-Jones is an intriguing late-round dart throw as the Browns’ other primary “X” receiver – assuming they don’t also bring in free agent Will Fuller. DPJ finished 2021 second in yards per catch (17.6) last season.

K.J. Osborn (MIN): WR83
K.J. Osborn flashed at times during the 2021 season, but never more so than when he filled in for Adam Thielen. From Weeks 13-17, the second-year pro averaged 12 half-PPR fantasy points per game to go along with six targets. If Thielen starts to break down entering his age 32-season, Osborn would be the prime benefactor.

Other third-year wide receivers:

• Bryan Edwards (ATL): WR89
• KJ Hamler (DEN): WR93
• Jalen Reagor (PHI): WR103
• Quintez Cephus (DET): WR106
• Quez Watkins (PHI): WR107
• Tyler Johnson (TB): WR113
• Devin Duvernay (BAL): WR128
• Denzel Mims (NYJ): WR140

FantasyPros Staff Consensus 2022 Redraft Fantasy Football Rankings