Statcast Review: Joc Pederson, Willson Contreras, Nestor Cortes (2022 Fantasy Baseball)

Memorial Day unofficially serves as one of the key checkpoints for a Major League Baseball season, and we have now surpassed said checkpoint and moved into June. By doing so, we can no longer claim that it is “early” in the season. This also gives us a fair opportunity to judge players over the longer sample size.

That is exactly what we will do in this article. We will judge the best and worst players relative to the league by simply ranking them into percentiles. It’s the equivalent of “grading on a curve,” where each number is scaled from 0 to 100.

xwOBA was used for sorting, but the tables below are self-explanatory and can be read on a column-to-column basis.

Percentile Rankings by xwOBA: Batters

Below are two tables for Percentile Rankings by xwOBA for batters. These numbers represent where a batter ranks relative to the league, and the higher number is better. Per Statcast, 2.1 plate appearances per team game was used as the qualifying cutoff for batters.

Sorted High-to-Low

Player	xwOBA	xBA	xSLG	xISO	xOBP	BRL	BRL %	EV	HH %	K %	BB %	Whiff %
Yordan Alvarez	100	99	100	99	100	98	98	99	100	69	90	68
Joc Pederson	100	99	99	99	97	96	99	99	99	66	58	66
Aaron Judge	99	93	100	100	91	100	100	100	100	25	66	45
Mike Trout	99	86	99	100	95	99	99	92	94	27	85	28
Willson Contreras	98	86	97	96	98	81	86	97	99	58	74	22
Taylor Ward	98	90	98	97	100	91	98	58	67	50	99	63
J.D. Martinez	98	98	96	91	96	93	94	79	83	34	62	28
Freddie Freeman	97	94	97	94	97	93	78	87	70	92	85	93
Bryce Harper	97	96	98	97	90	96	93	95	92	56	44	16
Max Kepler	97	94	92	84	99	77	74	81	74	78	88	67
Juan Soto	96	76	92	92	99	94	86	55	78	88	100	72
Giancarlo Stanton	96	89	96	94	82	99	100	100	98	14	51	6
Pete Alonso	95	87	95	95	87	98	92	75	85	57	62	39
Mike Yastrzemski	95	88	85	76	98	72	80	92	78	83	97	76
Christian Walker	95	75	97	98	80	98	95	72	80	61	76	50
Austin Riley	94	78	95	95	74	96	94	97	97	15	47	13
Willy Adames	94	59	95	97	74	86	97	75	78	13	78	12
Rowdy Tellez	94	69	98	98	58	93	92	81	87	39	38	53
Luis Robert	93	97	94	84	78	81	86	84	80	68	8	34
Rafael Devers	93	97	94	88	76	96	85	98	96	67	10	27

Sorted Low-to-High

Player	xwOBA	xBA	xSLG	xISO	xOBP	BRL	BRL %	EV	HH %	K %	BB %	Whiff %
Salvador Perez	7	10	35	57	2	59	62	86	71	19	2	5
Maikel Franco	6	34	14	12	6	31	20	25	38	60	6	25
Marcus Semien	6	8	7	13	10	26	13	7	9	78	50	77
Brett Phillips	6	5	9	23	6	11	45	50	38	1	33	1
Adam Duvall	6	3	14	43	5	41	44	25	41	3	42	20
Wil Myers	5	11	14	25	5	11	20	34	21	13	25	9
Taylor Walls	5	2	3	7	17	6	12	5	11	25	81	54
Mike Moustakas	5	1	2	8	20	6	11	22	9	48	66	44
Javier Baez	4	9	16	30	3	51	49	34	20	31	5	2
Rougned Odor	3	4	15	33	1	31	38	11	18	25	3	35
Yuli Gurriel	3	16	8	10	6	6	6	16	25	83	7	90
Mike Zunino	3	1	11	41	1	19	53	86	59	1	11	2
Kevin Smith	3	7	25	50	1	31	45	27	22	22	2	23
Lorenzo Cain	2	14	2	2	11	1	1	46	37	48	28	53
Tyler Wade	2	6	1	3	6	1	4	2	2	58	31	80
Victor Robles	2	4	1	3	7	6	11	1	1	17	22	46
Austin Hedges	1	1	4	11	3	11	25	3	2	29	36	21
Tucker Barnhart	1	1	1	2	1	1	5	6	7	8	10	41
Alcides Escobar	1	8	1	1	3	1	2	1	1	36	7	71
Martin Maldonado	1	1	3	18	2	11	28	66	64	3	39	17

Notes

Yordan Alvarez and Aaron Judge have been mentioned numerous times throughout this series, but Joc Pederson fits right among them in looking at pure rankings. If there’s any knock on his game, it’s that his walk rate is comparatively lower. But that’s the epitome of nitpicking for someone who has performed as well as he has. As of this writing, Pederson is posting career highs in batting average, slugging percentage, on-base percentage, and OPS.
Staying toward the top of the list, it’s not surprising to see names like Mike Trout and Freddie Freeman, but Willson Contreras as a catcher? That’s incredible, and he deserves to be highlighted for his extreme success compared to the league average. As an added note, Contreras actually leads the league in hit-by-pitches even though it doesn’t appear in this chart. More amazingly, he also led the league in this category two years ago.
It feels like Rafael Devers and Rowdy Tellez have appeared in so many of the Statcast articles that I have to mention them as they help round out the top 20. Technically, both may have cooled off from prior hot streaks, but their presence among the league’s best is no fluke. Tellez is clearly boosted by the power at the expense of batting average – and an impossibly low-speed rating – while Devers does everything except walk. That’s acceptable with a batting average north of .340.
As always, there is the opposite side of the chart. Salvador Perez is clearly worth highlighting after he slugged 48 home runs last year, but other names like Javier Baez and Marcus Semien are hovering toward the backend of the league’s rankings for too long. It’s one thing to refer to what has happened to them as a “slow start.” It’s an entirely different argument when June rolls around and slight improvement has been made.

Percentile Rankings by xwOBA: Pitchers

Below are two tables for Percentile Rankings by xwOBA for pitchers. These numbers represent where a pitcher ranks relative to the league, and the higher number is better. Per Statcast, 1.25 plate appearances per team game were used as the qualifying cutoff for pitchers.

Sorted High-to-Low

Player	xwOBA	xBA	xSLG	BRL	BLR %	EV	HH %	K %	BB %	Whiff %	xERA	FB Vel.	FB Spin	Curve Spin
Clay Holmes	100	99	100	94	98	43	53	83	98	89	100	91	51
Ryan Helsley	100	100	100	94	91	66	69	100	52	98	100	100	99
Jason Adam	99	100	99	83	75	85	98	98	50	99	99	65	98
Joe Mantiply	99	78	97	99	99	83	51	50	99	46	99	12	34	26
Edwin Diaz	99	98	99	94	93	80	39	100	16	100	99	99	78
Sam Hentges	99	90	95	83	72	69	65	93	95	79	99	73	36
Alex Cobb	98	94	98	83	97	86	90	82	59	57	98	68	17	71
Kenley Jansen	98	98	96	73	63	94	96	96	36	64	98	34	94
A.J. Minter	98	98	90	34	3	26	75	99	86	88	98	55	96
Trevor Stephan	98	83	97	94	96	84	70	61	64	80	98	90	90
Daniel Bard	97	99	97	73	48	65	43	94	48	78	97	97	96
Scott Effross	97	89	92	73	76	78	49	80	81	52	97	10	40
Tyler Kinley	96	93	96	99	99	32	22	79	69	87	96	77	56
Brusdar Graterol	96	96	98	94	98	98	100	41	18	34	96	97	33
Nestor Cortes	96	94	93	42	81	63	80	86	77	32	96	5	70
Dominic Leone	96	82	87	73	65	83	82	85	92	97	96	41	84
Sam Moll	96	95	99	94	93	92	90	94	18	69	96	41	97
Jhoan Duran	96	97	95	73	62	54	63	98	88	98	96	99	35	73
Emmanuel Clase	95	70	91	94	96	96	78	74	82	37	95	100	98
David Robertson	95	99	98	94	94	94	94	94	13	88	95	43	99	71

Sorted Low-to-High

Player	xwOBA	xBA	xSLG	BRL	BLR %	EV	HH %	K %	BB %	Whiff %	xERA	FB Vel.	FB Spin	Curve Spin
Jonathan Heasley	5	16	19	48	42	33	18	1	1	33	5	57	76
Bruce Zimmermann	5	8	3	1	4	12	28	32	83	13	5	14	75	43
Tyler Beede	4	1	15	83	88	17	5	1	13	2	4	83	16
Reiver Sanmartin	4	3	5	48	45	40	24	3	23	14	4	7	36
Bryce Elder	4	15	9	48	37	68	32	8	3	49	4	16	7
Jesse Chavez	4	2	4	28	5	5	1	58	86	17	4	6	23
Dauri Moreta	3	37	4	28	1	11	15	68	35	92	3	80	50
Jose Suarez	3	10	6	48	33	7	10	29	7	60	3	34	42	86
T.J. McFarland	3	1	6	42	25	1	1	11	59	9	3	5	3
J.B. Wendelken	3	1	9	60	57	77	87	6	37	14	3	68	82
Jose Berrios	2	3	2	1	8	8	11	16	71	9	2	55	41	22
Antonio Senzatela	2	1	7	34	67	10	28	1	77	1	2	50	18
Heath Hembree	2	15	2	42	4	47	21	15	6	8	2	63	64
Spenser Watkins	2	5	3	10	15	14	28	1	24	13	2	13	72	59
Zach Logue	1	11	1	7	2	10	9	27	42	43	1	10	8	42
Adam Oller	1	3	1	34	7	4	7	10	6	17	1	27	23
Robert Gsellman	1	1	1	34	6	24	5	9	88	40	1	38	2
Drew Steckenrider	1	1	1	42	14	47	45	11	57	17	1	63	67
Kris Bubic	1	2	1	28	1	22	18	11	3	7	1	22	14	67
Matt Brash	1	2	12	48	35	6	14	37	1	73	1	85	45	95

Notes

While the top of the hitters’ chart was filled with household names, the pitchers who have been consistently delivering are a lot less popular. That’s also because almost all of them are relievers. It’s not hard to see why, as the sheer volume of relief pitchers increases the likelihood that a handful can keep their ERAs shockingly low. Clay Holmes and Ryan Helsey are the prime examples, as they have combined to allow a total of two earned runs in 43.1 innings.
The list isn’t exclusive to relief pitchers, however, as Nestor Cortes sneaks in midway through an undeniable breakout campaign. Maybe it’s unlikely to continue, but one look at his numbers shows that he is delivering across the board for the Yankees. That is until we reach his fastball velocity, which is among the lowest in Major League Baseball. The fact that he has performed so well despite a relatively low velocity makes his 2022 season just that much more extraordinary.
Keeping with the New York theme, the Mets’ closer has had quite the roller coaster tenure since being acquired in a trade four years ago. It appears that Edwin Diaz and his numbers have settled now, and he slides in as one of the best in the sport. As of now, he is posting the second-highest strikeout rate of his career.
Opportunities clearly don’t automatically translate into positive outcomes, as most of the latter table – where the pitchers who have performed worse are highlighted – is filled with relievers. The same logic applies, as the volume pushes enough names onto the list that we can’t find room for too many starters. That’s probably not a good sign for Jose Berrios, as he finds himself in the middle of an unfortunate group. Berrios signed a seven-year extension with the Blue Jays this past offseason, and his first full year with the team has left plenty to be desired.

Have something you want me to cover in this space, or just want to talk baseball? Feel free to reach out on Twitter @MarioMergola with questions or requests.

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Mario Mergola is a featured writer at FantasyPros and BettingPros and the creator and content editor of Sporfolio. For more from Mario, check out his archive and follow him @MarioMergola.

MLB sabermetrics Yordan Alvarez Joc Pederson Aaron Judge Mike Trout Willson Contreras Taylor Ward J.D. Martinez Freddie Freeman Bryce Harper Max Kepler Juan Soto Giancarlo Stanton Pete Alonso Mike Yastrzemski Christian Walker Austin Riley Willy Adames Rowdy Tellez Luis Robert Rafael Devers Salvador Perez Maikel Franco Marcus Semien Brett Phillips Adam Duvall Wil Myers Taylor Walls Mike Moustakas Javier Baez Rougned Odor Yuli Gurriel Mike Zunino Kevin Smith Lorenzo Cain Tyler Wade Victor Robles Austin Hedges Tucker Barnhart Alcides Escobar Martin Maldonado Clay Holmes Ryan Helsley Jason Adam Joe Mantiply Edwin Diaz Sam Hentges Alex Cobb Kenley Jansen A.J. Minter Trevor Stephan Daniel Bard Scott Effross Tyler Kinley Brusdar Graterol Nestor Cortes Dominic Leone Sam Moll Jhoan Duran Emmanuel Clase David Robertson Jonathan Heasley Bruce Zimmermann Tyler Beede Reiver Sanmartin Bryce Elder Jesse Chavez Dauri Moreta Jose Suarez T.J. McFarland J.B. Wendelken Jose Berrios Antonio Senzatela Heath Hembree Spenser Watkins Zach Logue Adam Oller Robert Gsellman Drew Steckenrider Kris Bubic Matt Brash