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Statcast Review: Aaron Judge, Mookie Betts, Corbin Burnes (2022 Fantasy Baseball)

Statcast Review: Aaron Judge, Mookie Betts, Corbin Burnes (2022 Fantasy Baseball)

Statcast is so dense with numbers and statistics that we can essentially look at anything. We can pan out and gauge the league’s state as a whole, or we can zoom in and get extremely granular. In this article, we are taking the latter approach, where we dive into specific pitches and gauge how well hitters perform against them and the success rate of someone throwing said pitch. This information set may be better suited for daily fantasy baseball than season-long leagues, but the goal remains the same: find an edge.

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Pitch Arsenal — xwOBA: Batters

Below are two tables for Pitch Arsenal for batters, where we can see each hitter’s success against a specific pitch. The first table is sorted by xwOBA high-to-low, the second table is sorted by xwOBA low-to-high — where the higher number is better for hitters — and a minimum of 10 plate appearances was used as a cutoff.

Sorted High-to-Low

Player Pitch PA xBA xSLG xwOBA HH%
Danny Jansen 4-Seamer 12 0.512 1.750 0.893 90.9
Evan Longoria Sinker 13 0.555 1.420 0.807 81.8
Kole Calhoun Sinker 21 0.544 1.100 0.687 50.0
Bryce Harper Cutter 18 0.417 1.257 0.678 57.1
Josh Donaldson Cutter 13 0.469 1.103 0.660 66.7
Gio Urshela Cutter 11 0.604 0.935 0.655 55.6
Michael Brantley Cutter 21 0.463 1.056 0.634 58.8
Andrew Vaughn Cutter 13 0.500 1.003 0.634 70.0
Joc Pederson Sinker 27 0.402 1.134 0.629 60.9
Tom Murphy Sinker 10 0.430 1.058 0.627 66.7
Trevor Story Changeup 17 0.409 1.124 0.626 75.0
Taylor Ward Cutter 11 0.474 0.987 0.620 28.6
Mookie Betts Cutter 19 0.386 1.102 0.613 61.5
Luis Garcia 4-Seamer 10 0.432 1.048 0.607 100.0
J.D. Martinez Sinker 29 0.511 0.879 0.599 52.0
Aaron Judge 4-Seamer 79 0.384 1.065 0.597 71.7
Nick Castellanos Cutter 11 0.422 1.007 0.597 62.5
Mookie Betts Curveball 17 0.426 0.912 0.594 57.1
Luis Robert Changeup 17 0.516 0.862 0.593 50.0
Willson Contreras Curveball 21 0.412 0.958 0.590 71.4

Sorted Low-to-High

Player Pitch PA xBA xSLG xwOBA HH%
Kevin Smith Curveball 10 0.055 0.061 0.050 33.3
Garrett Hampson Changeup 10 0.060 0.073 0.057 0.0
Tucker Barnhart Curveball 17 0.052 0.082 0.059 0.0
Alex Verdugo Splitter 11 0.065 0.075 0.060 0.0
Yan Gomes Slider 12 0.067 0.075 0.063 0.0
Willy Adames Changeup 18 0.075 0.083 0.068 28.6
Odubel Herrera Curveball 10 0.069 0.107 0.068 40.0
TJ Friedl Changeup 10 0.075 0.079 0.069 0.0
Cal Raleigh Slider 20 0.073 0.097 0.072 28.6
Jose Herrera Changeup 10 0.078 0.096 0.075 0.0
Geraldo Perdomo Curveball 10 0.009 0.010 0.078 0.0
Jorge Alfaro Changeup 13 0.087 0.104 0.084 20.0
Bradley Zimmer Slider 11 0.090 0.110 0.085 0.0
Trevor Larnach Curveball 15 0.025 0.077 0.087 33.3
Franmil Reyes Changeup 10 0.021 0.022 0.087 0.0
Jose Herrera Slider 17 0.100 0.109 0.092 37.5
Jarred Kelenic Curveball 14 0.098 0.128 0.096 10.0
Yadiel Hernandez Curveball 11 0.079 0.154 0.098 12.5
Clint Frazier Changeup 10 0.108 0.134 0.103 0.0
Jarred Kelenic Slider 18 0.038 0.040 0.108 33.3

Notes

  • One immediate takeaway from the top group in the chart is that fastballs are prominently featured. Whether it is a 4-Seamer or Cutter, pitches that lack downward movement and an extreme change in velocity are preferred compared to a curveball. It’s also possible that, while certain hitters may track a breaking ball better than a fastball, the speed at which the ball leaves the bat is helped so much by 4-Seamers and Cutters that it naturally pushes them up the chart.
  • As always, there is an exception to the rule. Mookie Betts and Willson Contreras are the only two players to find their way into the top chart because of success against Curveballs, but they both sit at the bottom of the top-20. Betts and Contreras are also enjoying outstanding season-to-date with batting averages of at least .275 and double-digit home run totals. That’s not surprising given the success rate against the breaking ball.
  • One interesting pairing worth noting is Aaron Judge and 4-Seamers. His 79 plate appearances against them easily surpass any other total for a hitter in the top-20 by at least double. Still, his expected batting average on this pitch is also the lowest of the group. The key is that his hard-hit percentage is astronomically high against 4-Seamers, and if we want to paint a picture of how to approach Judge, we can determine that it is probably wise to avoid feeding him 4-Seamers, if possible.
  • It’s relatively common to see one side of a trend that allows the complete opposite to appear when we flip the output. In the case of hitters, most of the pitches that appeared on the “high-to-low xwOBA” chart were fastballs. Therefore, it should be no surprise to see Curveballs and Sliders fill the “low-to-high xwOBA” table. That’s exactly what happens, and it leads to a clear path as to how to retire some of these batters. For example, Jarred Kelenic and Jose Herrera both appear twice on this list.

Pitch Arsenal — xwOBA: Pitchers

Below are two tables for Pitch Arsenal for pitchers, where we can see the success of each specific pitch. The first table is sorted by xwOBA low-to-high, the second table is sorted by xwOBA high-to-low — where the lower number is better for pitchers — and a minimum of 10 plate appearances was used as a cutoff.

Sorted Low-to-High

Player Pitch PA xBA xSLG xwOBA HH%
Seth Martinez Slider 16 0.030 0.058 0.037 10.0
Anthony Gose Slider 15 0.040 0.046 0.037 0.0
Hirokazu Sawamura Slider 15 0.046 0.058 0.048 0.0
Jackson Stephens Curveball 16 0.072 0.105 0.076 9.1
Michael King Changeup 10 0.082 0.113 0.083 50.0
Denyi Reyes Slider 10 0.095 0.099 0.087 12.5
Liam Hendriks Slider 20 0.067 0.099 0.101 28.6
Luis Garcia Curveball 11 0.096 0.145 0.101 12.5
Luis Garcia Slider 21 0.042 0.050 0.102 0.0
David Bednar Curveball 15 0.052 0.092 0.103 20.0
Wade Miley Slider 11 0.110 0.133 0.105 20.0
Jose Alvarado Cutter 17 0.113 0.132 0.106 40.0
Aaron Ashby Curveball 15 0.059 0.104 0.110 12.5
Mike Baumann Slider 12 0.066 0.073 0.114 12.5
Corbin Burnes Curveball 51 0.103 0.152 0.120 15.4
Lucas Luetge Slider 16 0.082 0.111 0.120 0.0
Tommy Kahnle Changeup 10 0.129 0.144 0.120 0.0
A.J. Minter Changeup 16 0.134 0.151 0.123 0.0
Yency Almonte Slider 21 0.080 0.160 0.126 25.0
Colin Holderman Cutter 14 0.098 0.233 0.129 33.3

Sorted High-to-Low

Player Pitch PA xBA xSLG xwOBA HH%
Brett Phillips N/A 18 0.528 1.523 0.818 56.3
Alex Colome 4-Seamer 13 0.630 1.271 0.762 66.7
Huascar Ynoa 4-Seamer 16 0.477 1.113 0.669 63.6
Chris Flexen Curveball 12 0.474 0.965 0.667 63.6
Travis Lakins Sr. Cutter 14 0.496 1.086 0.662 45.5
Scott Barlow 4-Seamer 13 0.454 1.137 0.655 50.0
Mark Leiter Jr. 4-Seamer 13 0.532 0.993 0.647 80.0
Garrett Richards 4-Seamer 22 0.429 1.114 0.646 60.0
Dinelson Lamet 4-Seamer 14 0.353 1.072 0.632 57.1
Tommy Romero 4-Seamer 10 0.391 0.951 0.626 40.0
Phillip Diehl 4-Seamer 16 0.421 1.099 0.624 71.4
Sean Newcomb Cutter 11 0.449 1.071 0.623 66.7
J.B. Wendelken Sinker 15 0.439 1.057 0.614 35.7
Chris Ellis 4-Seamer 10 0.443 0.584 0.596 0.0
Yusei Kikuchi Cutter 17 0.358 0.819 0.593 50.0
Adam Oller Sinker 31 0.411 0.994 0.589 52.2
Chase Silseth 4-Seamer 25 0.427 0.915 0.585 42.1
Aaron Brooks Sinker 16 0.431 0.946 0.577 42.9
Trevor Richards 4-Seamer 43 0.382 0.938 0.575 51.6
Nathan Eovaldi Cutter 17 0.354 1.049 0.575 58.3

Notes

  • In keeping with the same trend that closed out the “Batters” section of this article, the pitches that are the most successful from the viewpoint of pitchers are breaking balls. Sliders and Curveballs — with a sprinkling of Changeups — make up the bulk of the chart. The difference here is that many of the names are relief pitchers who feature only a fastball and an elite secondary pitch in the form of one of these breaking balls. Anthony Gose — yes, the former hitter — is one of those names.
  • It isn’t only the two-pitch relievers that are highlighted in this chart. Luis Garcia and Corbin Burnes are two starting pitchers with extreme success throwing Curveballs. Burnes clearly goes to this pitch often — his 51 plate appearances easily lead the group — while Garcia only has 11 on the year. If we are looking at the possibility of an undervalued asset, this is it. Garcia could start to lean on his Curveball more in the future, which has been successful for him so far.
  • The opposite side of the chart is, once again, self-explanatory. Fastballs produce better numbers for hitters, so that they will produce worse numbers for pitchers. It’s an easy concept to grasp, and it’s also easy to see that most pitchers struggling to the point that they appear on this chart also have relatively low exposure to their “bad” pitch. Starters like Yusei Kikuchi and Nathan Eovaldi are simply in a difficult position because of their volume, and they can’t avoid their comparatively bad pitches forever.
  • We’ll close out this column with the obvious eyesore at the chart’s top. Brett Phillips has a pitch that doesn’t register with Statcast and is also the worst in the entire league. Of course, Phillips has an excuse: he’s a position player. Still, seeing that he has so many plate appearances with a pathetically unrecognized pitch is entertaining and eye-popping. Perhaps we can’t predict when Phillips will see the mound again, but we can use this information to target hitters against pitchers who can’t avoid some of their less effective weapons. Maybe it can be for a streaming option, or perhaps we can use it for DFS. Either way, if we see the mismatch, we have the aforementioned edge that we seek. Or, if we see Phillips start to throw some of his infamous N/As.

Have something you want me to cover in this space, or do you just want to talk baseball? Feel free to reach out on Twitter @MarioMergola with questions or requests.


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Mario Mergola is a featured writer at FantasyPros and BettingPros and the creator and content editor of Sporfolio. For more from Mario, check out his archive and follow him @MarioMergola.

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