Quarterback is a fascinating position. In real football, there are only a handful of guys you’d trust to lead your team to a championship. But in fantasy football, there can be as many as 15 guys who can help you get to the promised land.

In 1QB leagues, it’s become my habit to sit and wait to draft a quarterback. Sure, one quarterback usually stands out from the crowd as Josh Allen did in 2021. But the drop-off between the QB2 and the QB12 simply isn’t as drastic as it is at other positions. Last season, 11 quarterbacks averaged more than 20 fantasy points per game, with Kirk Cousins barely missing the cut at 19.2 fantasy points per game.

Waiting is simply the way to go at quarterback. But not everyone will subscribe to that theory in your league. And sometimes quarterbacks fly off the board. So rather than settling for someone like Cousins or Ryan Tannehill, why not take a shot on someone a bit lower down the board with much more upside?

Here are five guys to target who are currently ranked as QB2s by our Expert Consensus Rankings, but could deliver QB1 value this season.

Note: While Deshaun Watson is ranked as the QB13 right now, I am leaving him out of this list due to the uncertainty surrounding his suspension and legal affairs.

Trey Lance (QB – SF): ECR QB15

Part of this exercise is taking a look at the realistic best-case scenario for these players. There might be a quarterback with a higher ceiling, and a lower floor, entering 2022 than Lance.

And let’s start with the floor. For starters, we don’t even know for sure if Lance will be San Francisco’s starter in Week 1. Jimmy Garoppolo is still on the roster. And while the 49ers seem adamant about trading him, I’ll feel much more secure once I see the transaction take place.

On the field, Lance appeared in six games and started two as a rookie. To put it mildly, he looked kind of lost at times. He played poorly in his first professional start, completing 15-of-29 passes for 192 yards and an interception. Lance rushed for 89 yards in that game, but it wasn’t enough. Lance looked more in control in his second professional start in Week 17, completing 16 of 23 passes for 249 yards, two touchdowns, and one pick.

Lance will need to show some development from accuracy and field-reading standpoints in his second season. If he does, the sky is the limit. Lance will benefit from Kyle Shanahan’s system. He has a great offensive line and a strong set of weapons around him. And Lance is incredibly athletic and rushed for 1,100 yards in his second season at North Dakota State.

The rust from sitting out most of his final collegiate season combined with graduating from FCS to the NFL might’ve contributed to Lance’s bumpy start. But if you’re willing to shoot the moon at QB and just stream the position if it doesn’t work out, there’s no better option than Lance.

Tua Tagovailoa (QB – MIA): ECR QB18

The jury’s still out for me on Tagovailoa. Concerns about his limitations as a passer are valid. But there’s so much context to consider regarding his situation.

Tagovailoa entered the NFL coming off a major hip injury suffered in his final collegiate season. He began his career with the fossil Chan Gailey as his offensive coordinator, before the Dolphins brilliantly went with a co-coordinator path in year two.

The point is, Tagovailoa hasn’t been given a fair shake at the next level. That all could change in 2022. The Dolphins brought in Kyle Shanahan’s disciple Mike McDaniel to serve as head coach, bringing a system that could suit Tua’s strengths. They beefed up the offensive line, adding tackle Terron Armstead. And Tagovailoa will throw to the fastest receiving duo in the NFL of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle.

I don’t blame anyone for being skeptical of Tua. And his durability concerns could derail any hopes of him exceeding expectations. But his talent and upside can’t be ignored. There’s still the potential that Tua evolves into a Russell Wilson light, and it could be this year.

Derek Carr (QB – LV): ECR QB14

Carr finished as the QB13 in 2021, so why can’t he leap into the QB1 ranks now that he’s reunited with Davante Adams?

Boom, analysis over. Okay, not really. Carr is a solid, if unspectacular, passer. He doesn’t take quite as many risks as he used to in his career. But having a true WR1 on the outside in Adams could have him pressing things downfield more often.

How can you argue with Carr’s set of weapons? Adams, slot savant Hunter Renfrow, and a healthy Darren Waller give Carr one of the best pass-catching trios in the league. We saw McDaniels make things work with Mac Jones and a lousy crew of receivers, so I’m optimistic about this Raiders offense in 2022.

Carr’s ceiling may not be as high as the others on this list, but he should have a stable floor that warrants QB1 consideration.

Matt Ryan (QB – IND): ECR QB22

Ryan feels really low right now, and I could see him slowly rising up the board in drafts. Perhaps people feel burned from his last couple of seasons in Atlanta, and rightfully so. Ryan was borderline awful. But his situation was just as bad, as he was throwing to the likes of Olamide Zaccheaus far too often. I was asked to try out for a spot on Atlanta’s receiving depth chart and politely declined.

Now, Ryan heads to Indianapolis where he has an elite running game taking the pressure off of him. And when Ryan drops back to pass, he’ll have an ascending receiver in Michael Pittman to look for as his first read. Indianapolis’ receiving depth chart is filled with some unknowns, but there should be enough for Ryan to work with on an offense that should be pretty impressive in 2022.

Ryan’s a known commodity, and the hope is getting out of Atlanta will get him out of his check-down habits. Ryan also doesn’t have an incredibly high ceiling, but a respectable season as a top 12 passer is definitely in the cards.

Trevor Lawrence (QB – JAX): ECR QB19

Lawrence took his lumps as a rookie, throwing 17 interceptions. But he was saddled with Urban Meyer as his first professional head coach, and he didn’t have much to work with.

Lawrence’s situation has improved entering his second season. The question is by how much? Doug Pederson replaces Meyer at the top, and we’ve seen him work wonders with top prospects like Carson Wentz. However, Philadelphia’s offense got pretty stale toward the end of Pederson’s run. The Jaguars added Christian Kirk and Zay Jones to Lawrence’s supporting cast. Plus, his college teammate Travis Etienne should get back to full health after missing his entire rookie year with a foot injury.

This is more a statement on Lawrence’s talent than anything else, as I don’t love what Jacksonville did during the offseason. However, Lawrence was a prodigious prospect for a reason. If you’re open to rostering two quarterbacks, I’d be willing to roll the dice on him and see how he pans out while pairing him with a more proven commodity.’

Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | SoundCloud | iHeartRadio

If you want to dive deeper into fantasy football, be sure to check out our award-winning slate of Fantasy Football Tools as you navigate your season. From our Start/Sit Assistant – which provides your optimal lineup based on accurate consensus projections – to our Waiver Wire Assistant – which allows you to quickly see which available players will improve your team and by how much – we’ve got you covered this fantasy football season.

Matt is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Matt, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter @RealMattBarbato.