While it’s always important to identify the next big sleeper and breakout candidates, it’s equally important to avoid those fantasy football draft-day landmines. You know what I’m talking about. Those picks that torpedo your draft and have you behind the eight ball before the season begins. Don’t worry, we have you covered. Andrew Erickson and Derek Brown have shared their early players to avoid based on their average draft position (ADP).

• Players to Avoid at ADP: Dawson Knox

Why Patrick Mahomes is a player to avoid at their current average draft position (ADP)

Patrick Mahomes 2022 Fantasy Football Outlook

Despite the ups-and-downs of the KC Chiefs offense as a response to the Cover 2 defense, Patrick Mahomes was as stellar as ever from a fantasy perspective. The former MVP ranked fourth in fantasy points per game (22.0) tying Justin Herbert with 12 weekly top-12 QB finishes. Still, Mahomes averaged fewer fantasy points per game than in 2020 (25.2).

Additionally, the loss of Tyreek Hill cannot be ignored heading into 2022. The duo ranks second in combined passing touchdowns (41) since 2016 – despite Mahomes not becoming the starter until 2018. Mahomes can’t totally be written off as a top-five fantasy option – QB4 without Hill through the first five weeks of 2019 averaging 25 fantasy points per game – but there’s real concern about his top-tier weekly ceiling without Hill.

Especially coming off a season where he posted a career-low PFF passing grade (77.5) and a career-high in interceptions (16). He’s likely being overvalued as the QB2 in early best ball drafts on name recognition alone.
– Andrew Erickson

FantasyPros Staff Consensus 2022 Redraft Fantasy Football Rankings