In fantasy football drafts, avoiding the land mines is nearly as important as finding the breakout players. It’s also much, much easier.
Based on our Expert Consensus Rankings, Dissenting Opinions Tool and Average Draft Position Consensus, these are players I’m unlikely to select in 2022 fantasy football drafts. No doubt some of these players will have good seasons, maybe even great seasons. But the value propositions these 12 players offer at their respective costs are unappealing.
Tom Brady (QB – TB)
I’ve been expressing concern about Brady’s age for a while now, making me look like the boy who cried wolf. Brady’s ADP and ECR suggest there’s little public concern about an age-related decline even with Brady now squarely in his mid-40s. But the fact is, the living legend is sailing into uncharted territory.
Brady was 44 last season. The only other quarterbacks to have started at least one game at age 44 during the Super Bowl era are Steve DeBerg, Warren Moon and Vinny Testaverde. Only Testaverde made more than one start at that age, starting six games for the Panthers in 2007. Brady turns 45 on Aug. 3. No NFL quarterback has started a game at age 45, and George Blanda is the only Super Bowl-era player to have attempted a pass at that age.
Buccaneers WR Chris Godwin tore his ACL in Week 15 and might not be ready for the start of the season. TE Rob Gronkowski, Brady’s longtime running mate in New England and Tampa, has announced his retirement.
Brady finished QB3 in fantasy scoring last year, but he also led the league in pass attempts by a wide margin. He threw 719 passes last season, eight fewer than the NFL-record 727 passes attempted by Matthew Stafford for the Lions in 2012. Brady threw 47 more passes than his closest pursuer in that category, Justin Herbert. Brady was good in 2021, no question, but his fantasy exploits were volume-aided.
You can continue to defy the actuarial tables at your own risk. I’m simply not willing to bet on a 45-year-old quarterback — even if he’s the GOAT.
Russell Wilson (QB – DEN)
As a University of Wisconsin grad, I’m a longtime Russell Wilson enthusiast. I have plenty of company on that, and the trade that sent Wilson to Denver has a lot of people excited about Wilson’s 2022 prospects. Maybe the Broncos will finally let Russ cook.
Perhaps Wilson’s greatest attribute is his escapability. He’s been so good at spinning out of trouble and keeping plays alive.
We didn’t see many of those Houdini-esque escapes from Wilson last season, and I wonder if we’ll see fewer such plays now that he’s entering his mid-30s. Denver may indeed be a much better ecosystem for Russ than Seattle was last year. It’s also possible that lingering effects from a gruesome finger injury were largely responsible for Wilson’s downturn last year. But I’m worried that a less mobile Russ will be a less effective Russ.
Derrick Henry (RB – TEN)
It doesn’t feel great to fade a 6-3, 247-pound force of nature who’s averaged 115.5 rushing yards and 1.2 touchdowns a game over the last three seasons. But time isn’t kind to running backs, and Henry is entering his age-28 season. Maybe Henry is such a remarkable physical specimen that he’ll defy the age curve. However, we know that betting on running backs in their late 20s is generally imprudent.
Henry is coming off a significant foot injury, and he has a lot of mileage on the odometer. Henry has 1,664 career touches (playoffs included), with 65.1% of those touches coming in the last three years. That’s a risky profile for a player who’s typically a top-five draft pick.
Ezekiel Elliott (RB – DAL)
Elliott finished RB6 in 0.5 PPR scoring last year, but we know that’s largely due to survivor bias — Zeke was one of the few running backs to play a full 17-game season in 2021. He was the RB13 in fantasy points per game.
Like Derrick Henry, Zeke is fighting the age curve at a position that favors the young. Elliott will be 27 this season, and he simply hasn’t looked like vintage Zeke for the last two seasons. In his first four years in the league, Elliott averaged 4.6 yards per carry and 8.6 yards per catch. Over the last two years, Elliott has averaged 4.1 yards per carry and 6.3 yards per catch.
Also, the Cowboys’ change-of-pace running back, Tony Pollard, is a talented dude, so it’s unlikely we’ll see Elliott used as the sort of workhorse he was earlier in his career.
Granted, some of the concerns about Zeke are baked into his price, which isn’t the case with the much more expensive Derrick Henry. Still, Elliott is a falling knife I’m not eager to catch.
Damien Harris (RB – NE)
We know that TD regression is going to knock on Damien’s door after he punched in 15 touchdowns last season on 202 carries. Harris is also one-dimensional, with only 23 receptions over the last two seasons.
The Patriots are notorious among fantasy managers for the unpredictable deployment of their running backs, and Harris has plenty of company in the New England RB room. Rhamondre Stevenson found himself in the doghouse early last year after coughing up a fumble in his first NFL game, but Stevenson worked his way back into Bill Belichick’s good graces and had 132 carries over his last 11 regular-season games. Belichick typically doesn’t show a lot of faith in rookie running backs — Harris himself was a healthy scratch in 13 games as a rookie — so it’s possible we see Stevenson play an even bigger role this year. The Patriots also drafted RBs Pierre Strong and Kevin Harris, and James White is coming back after missing most of 2021 with a foot injury.
With such a crowded house, I’m not interested in Harris at his fifth-round ADP.
James Cook (RB – BUF)
In this year’s dynasty rookie drafts, Cook became a popular target after the Bills selected him late in the second round. People loved seeing Dalvin Cook’s fleet-footed little brother land in a prolific offense spearheaded by QB Josh Allen.
The thing is, Allen tends to drain the fantasy value of his running backs rather than inflate it. When the Bills are close to the goal line, Allen frequently calls his own number. And when Allen’s pocket breaks down, he tends to scramble rather than dump off to a running back. During Allen’s four years in Buffalo …
- Allen has 31 TD runs; all Bills RBs combined have 28 TD runs
- Bills RBs have ranked 19th, 26th, 29th and 29th in percentage of team targets
- No Bills RBs has surpassed 269 receiving yards in a season
- No Bills RB has run for more than 870 yards in a season, and only two have topped 700 rushing yards
We should probably pump the brakes on a passing-down back playing with a quarterback who doesn’t throw to his running backs very often.
Keenan Allen (WR – LAC)
Allen’s route-running and ball skills are the work of a true artist, and he knows it.
Allen had a career-high 106 receptions for 1,138 yards last season, and he’s playing with one of the best young quarterbacks in the game. So, what’s the problem?
Well, Allen’s efficiency numbers have been tumbling. He’s averaged 11.7 yards per catch and 8.0 yards per target for his career, but those numbers slipped to 10.3 and 7.0 over the last two years combined. Allen isn’t a big-play guy — only 11.3% of his 2021 receptions covered 20 or more yards — and he’s exceeded six TD catches only once in the last eight years.
Now entering his age-30 season, Allen has also seen a year-over-year decline in yards per route run.
Allen is a trusted brand name, which is why he has a third-round ADP. But he hasn’t been a top-10 receiver in fantasy points per game (0.5 PPR) since 2017, and his numbers are trending in the wrong direction. You should want a higher ceiling from a third-round receiver.
Jaylen Waddle (WR – MIA)
Waddle’s ADP has been largely immune to the Tyreek Hill trade. Even with the Cheetah racing into town, Waddle is still being drafted as a high-end WR2.
Waddle is no tortoise himself, but he averaged just 9.8 yards per catch as a rookie, and his average depth of target was 7.1 yards. Hill’s yearly ADOT has consistently been over 10 yards, and there’s little question which receiver is going to be running more deep routes for Miami this season. With Waddle pigeonholed as a possession receiver, his ascent to superstardom will have to wait.
Courtland Sutton (WR – DEN)
Mention Sutton’s name to my colleagues Derek Brown and Andrew Erickson, and they’ll act like little kids who just heard the ice cream truck roll into the neighborhood. Don’t tell Derickson that I’m completely out on Sutton.
When Jerry Jeudy missed six games with a high-ankle sprain early last season, Sutton had 37-525-2 in Jeudy’s absence, averaging 9.2 targets a game over that stretch. When Jeudy returned, Sutton had 20-237-0 over the Broncos’ final 10 games, averaging 4.0 targets per contest. Jeudy wasn’t especially prolific down the stretch — he topped 70 receiving yards only once after his return in Week 8 — but his presence completely nuked Sutton’s target share. I just can’t get over that.
Maybe Russell Wilson’s arrival is the magic elixir. But if I want to get a piece of the Denver passing game, I’ll probably eschew both Sutton and Jeudy and just try to grab No. 3 WR Tim Patrick on the cheap.
Chris Godwin (WR – TB)
Godwin is still being drafted in the WR2 range. This isn’t nearly enough of a discount for a player who tore his ACL in Week 15 of 2021 and reportedly didn’t have surgery until Jan. 3. Assuming he’ll need nine months to make a full recovery — and that’s an optimistic timeline — Godwin won’t be back until early October. Upon his return, he’ll face target competition from Mike Evans, Russell Gage, Leonard Fournette and perhaps Rob Gronkowski.
Yes, Godwin was very productive on a per-game basis last season, with 98-1,103-5 in 14 games. But that was with Tom Brady leading the NFL in pass attempts. A slower-than-expected recovery, a reduced target share, reduced passing volume for the Buccaneers — there are multiple paths to disappointment here.
Darren Waller (TE – LV)
Waller was grossly overpriced last year. Now, he’s just somewhat overpriced.
The arrival of WR Davante Adams is destined to put a dent in Waller’s target share. The veteran TE will also have to compete for targets with WR Hunter Renfrow, who established himself as an important part of the Raiders’ passing game last season.
A fourth-round ADP is too rich for a TE who’s about to turn 30 and now faces significant target competition. Waller has overcome personal demons to become a top tight end. It’s a great story. I’d just rather pay for the paperback version than the hardcover.
Pat Freiermuth (TE – PIT)
It’s fun to hear Steelers fans yell “MUUUTH!!!” after Pat Freiermuth receptions. I think it will be less fun to have Freiermuth on your fantasy team this season.
A big chunk of his 2021 value was derived from seven TDs on 60 catches. It’s great that Ben Roethlisberger only had eyes for Freiermuth near the end zone, but will new Steelers QBs Mitch Trubisky and/or Kenny Pickett lock onto Freiermuth in the same way? Freiermuth averaged 8.3 yards per catch and 6.3 yards per target last year. Those aren’t numbers that scream “gotta have” to me.
