Recently we reviewed the early average draft positions (ADP) on Fantrax and compared them to our expert consensus rating (ECR) in search of values (half-point PPR). Today we’ll flip the script and reveal some players who look overvalued on Fantrax. As in our ADP Values article, the players are listed below by position. Also, please remember to check back periodically as we’ll update this list throughout the summer. Note: updated on August 29, 2022
Quarterbacks
Ryan Tannehill (QB – TEN): QB18
Fantasy managers aren’t drafting Tannehill high, but he’s going about three slots high in ADP than his ECR. Tannehill was a borderline QB1 during 2021 drafts and scored the 12th most points at the position last year. However, much of that was due to his staying healthy. On a points-per-game basis, he ranked 16th with only 16.6 ppg. Add to that a healthy Derrick Henry (RB – TEN), who should once again dominate touches, and the loss of his top two receivers from last year (A.J. Brown (WR – PHI) and Julio Jones (WR – TB)), and our experts are nervous.
Dak Prescott had a solid 2021 but finished the year as QB9 on a points-per-game basis. Plus, he lost a pretty good weapon this offseason when the Cowboys traded Amari Cooper (WR – CLE) to the Browns. Say what you want about Cooper, but those 104 targets won’t be easy to replace. To make matters worse, stud left tackle Tyron Smith fractured his knee in camp and will miss most of 2022. Prescott should still be drafted as a starter but has limited upside as he doesn’t run much anymore (despite recent comments). The Cowboys also lost His ECR of QB10 seems a more reasonable value for Dak, who is likely to be more solid than spectacular again in 2022.
Running Backs
Devin Singletary (RB – BUF): RB27
Singletary should be the first back taken from the Bills backfield. However, how much usage he gets is up for debate. Rookie James Cook (RB – BUF) is primed to be the primary passing-down back, and Zack Moss (RB – BUF) figures to be the preferred short-yardage option. That limits Singletary’s upside and is why our ECR has him ranked eight spots lower at RB35.
Cordarrelle Patterson (RB -ATL): RB26
Patterson was remarkable in 2021, finishing the year as RB9. He certainly could put together another strong campaign, but his range of outcomes for 2022 is wide. The Falcons’ offense will look very different with Marcus Mariota (QB – ATL) under center and new receivers Drake London (WR – ATL) and Bryan Edwards (WR – ATL) in tow. In addition, rookie Tyler Allgeier (RB – ATL) has had a great camp and could emerge as an early down option for the Falcons. Patterson is no spring chicken either, he’s 31 now, and he appeared to wear down late last season. Given these variables, his ECR of RB36x seems less risky.
Wide Receivers
Hunter Renfrow (WR – LV): WR30
Renfrow was a pleasant surprise in 2021, finishing the year as WR11 in half-point PPR leagues. A lot has changed with the Raiders this offseason, however. For one, they have a new coach in Josh McDaniels, and you never know how a new scheme will affect a player like Renfrow. Second, and more importantly, they have a new ball-dominating WR in Davante Adams (WR – LV). Adams does a lot of the same things Renfrow does, only better. Renfrow will still be solid in PPR formats, but adding Adams and a healthy Darren Waller (TE – LV) could drop his TD total significantly from the nine he nabbed last year. Our experts feel a safer play for Renfrow would be closer to his ECR of WR39.
Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR – DET): WR20
St. Brown finished the 2021 season with a flurry. From Week 13 through Week 18, he was the second-best WR in fantasy averaging 20.9 points per game. However, the Lions were without many of their top receiving options during this period, such as T.J. Hockenson (TE – DET) and D’Andre Swift (RB – DET). In addition, Detroit signed DJ Chark (WR – DET) and drafted Jameson Williams (WR – DET) — who may be the most talented wideout in this year’s draft. As such, St. Brown will face a lot more competition for targets than he did at the end of last season. Therefore, it may be wiser to treat him as a flex-play, ala his ECR of WR30, than a No. 2 WR come your fantasy draft.
Tight End
Mike Gesicki (TE – MIA): TE11
Gesicki received a ton of targets last season, but Miami had far fewer receiving options. In the mix this season are superstar receiver Tyreek Hill (WR – MIA) and an excellent pass-catching back in Chase Edmonds (RB – MIA). Gesicki’s value was tied to his receptions, as he only scored two TDs last year. So if his target share drops, as it should, his value will too. Hence his ECR of TE15 is four spots lower than his ADP. In addition, there have been rumors that Gesicki may be on the trading block. While these may just be rumors, it may indicate that new HC Mike McDaniel doesn’t highly value him.
Evan Engram (TE – JAC): TE17
Engram’s career started strong, but his production has dropped dramatically over the last few seasons. In 2021, he was TE27 on a points-per-game basis. Perhaps his move to Jacksonville will reinvigorate his career, but until that happens, he seems like a risky play – even at his relatively high ADP. Our ECR has him five slots lower at TE22. There are better options going after him in drafts.
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