As we enter the summer and offseason activities quickly transform into the regular season, we need to turn our attention to where fantasy seasons are won and lost: pre-draft rankings. The following list includes players that are overpriced on one of the most popular fantasy football platforms around: Yahoo.
Please note that the following rankings are based on .5-PPR League Settings. The current ADP list for Yahoo leagues can be found here. Both the Yahoo pre-draft rankings and ADP list were used when considering these players.
According to Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR) on FantasyPros, Jackson is the QB4 and his projected points predict he will finish as the QB5. Yahoo has him projected as the QB2. While the separation of a couple of spots may not seem like much, the actual difference is substantial. Josh Allen is the QB1 and slated to be drafted in the back half of the second round. Jackson is slated to be selected in the back half of the fourth round. The next tier of QBs, including Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert and Joe Burrow, are set to be selected a round or more after that.
The point here is that the QB2 ranking for Lamar Jackson means that many fantasy football managers will reach for him before they reach for those other QBs. While Jackson has finished as the QB1 before, he hasn’t done so in the last two seasons. In fact, he hasn’t played in all 17 (or 16) games since his MVP season in 2019. Using a pick on a QB in the first four or five rounds can become a dire predicament if you choose poorly. Imagine reaching for Jackson at the start of the fourth round and he ends up finishing as the QB5. You’re essentially betting he has another MVP season or else you’ll be left disappointed.
While Jackson is certainly a player to keep tabs on, he doesn’t warrant the second-overall QB ranking. After losing Marquise Brown in the offseason, as well as re-gaining J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards (who will presumably steal some rushing work from Jackson), there’s little reason to be high on him this year. He’s undoubtedly a top QB option, but he’s not the overall QB2.
Rashaad Penny (RB – SEA): RB29
There are few players that instill in me less confidence than Rashaad Penny. He’s been in the league since 2018 and has seemingly spent every second of that time being injured. The problem with his ranking is that he had an incredible stretch at the end of 2021 where he wasn’t injured and also performed like an absolute star, which makes properly valuing him a troubling act. In Weeks 14-18, he averaged 134.2 rushing yards per game and he totaled six TDs over that span. Prior to that stretch, he scored zero times and saw almost no meaningful playing time.
Penny is ranked as the RB29 by Yahoo, but ECR has him as the RB35. One of the major differences is that Yahoo has him ranked ahead of Kenneth Walker, the rookie RB drafted by Seattle in 2022. ECR has Walker ranked higher. There are a few other notable rankings comparisons. Yahoo has Penny ranked higher than Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Melvin Gordon, Kareem Hunt and Tony Pollard, all players that are ranked higher than Penny by FantasyPros ECR.
Ultimately, Penny is ranked higher than at least a handful of players. He’s already had hamstring issues this offseason and he’s got at least one young RB looking to supplant him. There’s a reasonable chance that he’s the starter to begin the season, but no manager will feel safe with him on their roster. He simply hasn’t proven enough to fill anyone with confidence.
Allen Robinson (WR – LAR): WR20
Robinson is the WR20 according to Yahoo, but he’s the WR28 on ECR. That’s a substantial discrepancy. While it’s perfectly reasonable to have high expectations for Robinson, there are a few realities that simply make it difficult to imagine him finishing as the WR20. He was a shell of his normal self in 2021, finishing with 38 receptions for 410 yards and one TD over 12 games. He just couldn’t get anything going last year. Many will blame the now-former head coach Matt Nagy, but it doesn’t really matter. Robinson disappointed and he needs to prove otherwise before he can be re-anointed as a top WR option.
Another problem for Robinson is that the Rams are pretty loaded. They’ve got a number of good WRs beyond him, including the fantasy WR1 overall in Cooper Kupp. There will be a lot of competition for targets in this offense. On top of that, it’s no secret that McVay likes to utilize his running backs. With Cam Akers returning from an Achilles injury to help the team win a Super Bowl last season, it’s anyone’s guess what the running game will look like in 2022. It may be even more of a focal point than it’s been in previous seasons. Someone’s going to fall short of expectations. Robinson seems likeliest to take the hit.
Albert Okwuegbunam (TE – DEN): TE13
Yahoo has Albert O ranked as the TE13, but ECR has him at TE18. The TE position is consistently top-heavy, but Albert O has been rising through the rankings ever since Russ Wilson was traded to the Broncos. I fear his rise may continue.
The TE13 ranking has some precedent, but it’s simply too high. Recently in his career, Wilson hasn’t really targeted the TE position. Yet, at one point, he played with a peak Jimmy Graham, who had two TE4 finishes in a row. Some might take that as evidence that Wilson is able to sustain a top TE talent, but recent TEs haven’t found as much love from Wilson. Arguably, Okwuegbunam may find even less attention than previous TEs. He’ll have to compete for targets against Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy, Tim Patrick and backfield pass-catchers Javonte Williams and Melvin Gordon. I’d love to be wrong, but you’re better off letting someone else reach for Albert O and instead take someone like Cole Kmet or Robert Tonyan a little later.
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Tim Metzler is a featured writer at FantasyPros, known for multiple article series’, including 5 Under 25, Expert Consensus Rantings, his in-season Running Diary and for his dynasty IDP rankings. For more from Tim, check out his archive and follow him @Timmy_The_Metz.
