If you like doing the math as I do, by my count we have 17 more weeks of FAAB runs at the NFBC. I tend to enjoy having a “per week” dollar amount in mind, though I deviate from it frequently. Ultimately, I’ll be living that $1-bid life in the final weeks. Where are my fellow $1 people at?
Anyway, many of the following players should be available on your respective waiver wires. Some are depth plays that you already roster in your 50-round draft-and-holds. No matter the case, let’s see who is trending upward ahead of Week 11 of fantasy baseball. I’ll be paying a little extra attention to players from Seattle, Philadelphia and Washington, as all three teams have a whopping eight games this week. At the opposite end of the spectrum are the Los Angeles Dodgers, who play just five games. Everyone else is obviously in between…
Lastly, most numbers were pulled ahead of Saturday’s games. So any Saturday heroics might not be included in this space.
Catcher
With Danny Jansen (fractured left pinkie) on the shelf, Moreno will now enter the Toronto timeshare. Moreno is known widely by prospect gurus, and the short story is that his bat should carry his real-life and fantasy value. He slashed 324/.380/.404 over 150 plate appearances at Triple-A this year. There’s All-Star potential in his stick, and he’s an excellent runner as well. He hasn’t shown a ton of power as a pro — just one homer at Triple-A this year — but the fantasy baseball comp here is something like Keibert Ruiz. Ruiz has given us just two homers this year, but a plus batting average and three steals means he’s still the 15th-best catcher in 5×5 leagues.
Moreno wouldn’t need a ton of at-bats to offer C2 value out of the gate, and the Blue Jays have a full seven games on tap for Week 11, including the coveted four-game set during the first part of the week. The four-game set is in Baltimore against a reeling Orioles pitching staff, too (4.20 ERA, 4.38 FIP). With regard to Moreno’s long-term value this year, we’ll have to monitor the status of Danny Jansen. There’s probably no scenario where Toronto carries Kirk, Jansen, and Moreno with the big league club, especially if that means Moreno isn’t receiving consistent at-bats. Maybe don’t blow all those FAAB dollars, gamers. But for the week ahead…fire up this potentially electric player.
Give me all the volume, okay? The Mariners have eight games on tap for Week 11, including four in the first half of the week and a doubleheader on Saturday. That takes the sting out of Raleigh always batting ninth for Seattle.
Raleigh started the season slowly and in a timeshare, but the 25-year-old backstop has had a scorching June, slashing .269/.345/.654, with a 10.3% walk rate and 20.7% strikeout rate this month. And over the last week, Raleigh is the fifth-best catcher in 5×5 leagues. So he’s entering Week 11 on a heater, and the full slate of games is nice. Comparing this year to last, many of Raleigh’s quality of contact numbers are moving in the right direction. His xBA (.179 to .220), average EV (88.0 MPH to 90.8 MPH), barrel rate (6.8% to 15.3%), hard-hit rate (35.1% to 45.8%), xSLG (.292 to .457) and xwOBA (.227 to .318) all paint a pretty picture. It’s possible that Raleigh is cementing his status as the Seattle catcher of the future. But even if that doesn’t come to pass, he’s a good-looking C2 play for the week ahead.
Corner Infield
If Jake Burger gets sent down to Triple-A when Tim Anderson returns in a couple of weeks — and if Leury Garcia keeps getting reps atop the White Sox order — I might lose my mind. The White Sox are sorely in need of offense, and Burger is one of the top five bats on the current roster. That Leury Garcia’s 24 wRC+ has 10 more plate appearances on the year than Burger (138 wRC+) should continue to evolve in Burger’s favor. Burger is a 1B/DH type, but he’s currently occupying third base for the White Sox. He’s got some strikeout issues, as evidenced by the 17.2% swinging-strike rate and corresponding 29.0% strikeout rate. However, that’s a marked improvement over last year’s 35.7% strikeout rate, and Burger still slashed .263/.333/.474 a year ago despite all the whiffs. That’s because he blisters the ball when he does make contact. His max EV marks place him inside the top 5% of the league for two years running, and he’s carrying double-digit barrel rates and expected batting average marks over .250 in both seasons. If you want power for your corner infield slot, Burger is your guy for the week ahead.
It snuck up on me, too, but Nate Lowe is scorching hot. His walk rate is half of what it was in last year’s solid campaign (down to 6.3%) but a lot of other marks look eerily similar. He has trimmed his strikeout rate from 25.2% to 23.4%, his .151 ISO is identical to last year and his .336 BABIP looks much like last year’s .339 mark. His .276/.322/.427 slash line is what we’ve come to expect for a guy who has consistently hit for average as a big leaguer. That he is only 1-for-2 in steals after going a perfect 8-for-8 last year is a bummer, but Lowe is a solid batting average bet who has posted max EV marks inside the top 9% of the league in all four of his big league seasons. He’s a death-by-papercut sort of play, the sort of guy who does a lot of things well. While he’s on a heater, he makes sense for a week where the Rangers catch a full seven games.
Middle Infield
Stott has been pushed back into playing time in Philly, and the second go-round looks much nicer than the first. As a regular over the last week, he’s the 10th-best middle infielder, with a pair of homers and a whopping eight runs to his credit over that time frame. He’s not using his 90th-percentile sprint speed to swipe bags — just 1-for-1 on steals so far this year — but if he uses it to score runs that makes him worthy of consideration. His Statcast data is pretty damning, as he’s not hitting the ball very hard. But we’re still talking about just 32 games played in 2022, and that comes with a .229 BABIP. Lastly, the Phillies catch the underperforming Trevor Rogers and then Patrick Corbin during the first part of Week 11. Both hurlers have had their moments of brilliance, but 2022 has mostly been gas can city for those two. I’m rolling Stott into middle infield slots this week.
Garcia got the call to Washington after the injury to Alcides Escobar, and hopefully, that’s the last time Alcides Escobar ever gets a mention in a fantasy baseball article. Anyway, Garcia already popped his first homer this week, off of last week’s waiver wire darling, Edward Cabrera. The scouting report is hopeful for the 22-year-old Garcia, at least as a guy who can eventually reach the 20-homer plateau while offering solid defense in the middle infield. He’s a free-swinger by nature, but he makes enough contact to do some damage. The Nationals catch a full eight games this week, thanks to four games in the first half of the week and a doubleheader on Friday. There’s no incentive for Washington to hold Garcia down in the minors anymore, as they’ve already secured an additional year of control. Now, hopefully Garcia will rake enough to stick.
Outfield
Thomas is back atop the Washington lineup, having hit either second or first in every game since June 3rd. That’s noteworthy for a team that still has Juan Soto in the fold and enjoys eight games in Week 11. Thomas’ 92nd-percentile sprint speed hasn’t shown up for us in 2022 yet, as he’s just 1-for-1 on the basepaths. However, if he can remain at the top of the order, that could change soon. Thomas has given us six dingers in 50 games, which is a 20+ homer pace. I, like many others, like his chances for the week ahead.
The 23-year-old Pittsburgh rookie has given us a useful eight homers and a pair of steals through 38 games, even if the .231/.285/.471 slash line isn’t ideal. But we’re talking about a guy who can round out your five-man outfields, so that category juice is nice. Suwinski has so far backed those numbers up with a 13.1% barrel rate and some 87th-percentile sprint speed. You may need to tread lightly for the back half of Week 11, as the Pirates are slated to see at least two left-handed starters. But for the first part of the week, Pittsburgh gets the right-handed heavy St. Louis Cardinals rotation, so Suwinski should be a lineup fixture at least through the first half of NFBC lineup-setting.
Those are the guys who stuck out to me for the week ahead…I hope this effort helps someone! If not, yell at me on Twitter @HeathCapps, and let’s figure this thing out together.
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