We are entering Week 10 of fantasy baseball at the NFBC, and by now you probably know where your teams are strong, and where you have “growing edges”. But those rough parts can always be ironed out. It just takes a little time to do some digging.
There’s always help to be found in depth pieces or on the waiver wire, depending on your league size and format. Me, it’s mostly 15-teamers at the NFBC, where I’m always trying to sort through which of my players get boosts for the week ahead. That said, most of the names who follow can help you plug a hole in shallow formats, too.
One bit of housekeeping — many of the numbers listed below were pulled prior to Saturday’s games. I have to stop somewhere to get this out in a timely manner on Sunday. So any Saturday heroics might not be included.
Catcher
Jose Trevino (C – NYY)
Ordinarily, I’d wholly ignore a guy with a 42.2% chase rate. However, it doesn’t take much to be fantasy-relevant as a backstop, and Trevino’s 7.9% swinging strike rate means he’s allowed to be a bit of a free-swinger. He’s making the most contact of his career, his strikeout rate is down, and his walk rate is up. His quality of contact metrics aren’t impressive, except for the .280 expected batting average. But hitting for average is something, and Trevino has even swatted three homers over the last two weeks. Add in the vaunted Yankees lineup and six games on tap for Week 10, and I’m into Trevino as a C2 option while he’s hot. The other Yankee catcher, Kyle Higashioka, has been a total no-show offensively in 2022, in case you were wondering. The season-long numbers point to Higgy being used almost exclusively for double-headers or to simply give Trevino a breather. That’s not currently happening, as this is still a timeshare — but if it starts to, Trevino could be a guy who sticks around long term instead of just during the current streak.
Victor Caratini (C – MIL)
The Brewers placed starting backstop Omar Narvaez, on the Covid-19 IL on Thursday night. And while I’m hoping Narvaez is healthy and able to return soon, I’m also acknowledging that we could get Caratini for a week-long rental. There’s more than one thing to like under the proverbial hood. Caratini’s .215 BA is dramatically lower than his .275 xBA, he’s got a whopping 40.8% sweet spot rate, and his five barrels on just 49 BBE is an elite pace (10.2%). That’s equal to noted basher Gary Sanchez, who leads all catchers in barrel rate. Caratini is swinging less this year and posting the highest contact rate since his rookie season. The patient approach at the plate has led to a walk rate in excess of 11%. And sure, the small sample caveat applies, but he’s been better than his overall numbers imply. That course correction has shown up over the last two weeks of games, a stretch over which Caratini is the No. 8 catcher in 5×5 leagues due to batting .294 with three home runs. Pay attention to Narvaez’s status in case he misses the minimum amount of time, but if Narvaez is out or if the Brewers plan to ease him back in next week, Caratani makes for a worthy C2 option for Week 10.
MJ Melendez (C – KC)
Melendez is more of an obvious name, but a bit less obvious are the five games played at DH and three games started in right field. Kansas City is going to prioritize his bat, and it helps that Salvador Perez is still ailing from a hurt thumb. Melendez reads like a guy you can trust for the long term, though. Perez’s injury and Melendez’s production mean that the young backstop has quite the leash for a Royals team that struggles to score runs. Melendez is slashing .272/.337/.467 on an entirely normal .318 BABIP, with four homers already. I think anyone with Melendez shares can rest easy moving forward.
Corner Infield
Christian Walker (1B – ARI)
It’s time to put some respect on Walker’s name. His 14 homers are tied with Kyle Schwarber, C.J. Cron, Jose Ramirez, and Austin Riley for second-most among all corner infielders. Only Aaron Judge (20), Mookie Betts (16), Pete Alonso (16), and Yordan Alvarez (15) have more homers than Walker in all of baseball. And sure, you’re giving up counting stats due to the Arizona team context. However, Walker is keeping pace with a guy like Schwarber, who is more widely trusted and rostered. Schwarber’s Phillies (24-29) haven’t lived up to the hype, while the D-backs (26-28) still have room for growth. Let’s explore…
After a cold start, Ketel Marte has begun to heat up. Josh Rojas is now healthy. Alek Thomas is slashing .259/.307/.506 (five HRs) over his first 24 games, and has a strikeout rate below 20 percent. David Peralta (.349 wOBA, 117 wRC+) is still bashing right-handed pitching, while Pavin Smith (.336 wOBA, 93 wRC+) has had some flashes of his own. And then there’s Walker, who has a walk rate that exceeds 11%, a strikeout rate below 20%, a hard-hit rate in the 80th percentile, and a .277 expected batting average that slots into the 77th percentile. Walker’s .211 BA is going to rise. He may not reach the levels of his previously useful seasons (.259, .271) due to an increased fly ball rate, but he ranks sixth in all of baseball in barrels per plate appearance. He should bat .235+ with plenty of power, and I think a modest uptick in counting stats is coming. For Week 10, Arizona travels to Cincinnati for a four-game set, and then to Philadelphia for a three-game series. Those are two prime hitting environments against teams who are bottom third in ERA on the year. Maybe Walker isn’t your starting first baseman, but I think you should be prioritizing him in your CI or UTIL spots for the week ahead.
Evan Longoria (3B – SF)
Longoria’s Giants have six home games in Week 10, hosting the Rockies and the Dodgers. ‘Longo’ has been on fire these last two weeks, bashing five homers with a .314 batting average. He missed Wednesday and Thursday with shoulder soreness but logged one at-bat in each of those games and returned to go 2-for-5 with a run scored on Friday. He should be healthy heading into Week 10, and the off day on Monday might even serve him well. The initial three games against Colorado’s third-worst 5.26 team ERA should be a fine way to begin, too.
Longoria’s sample is small, but so far he’s continuing to smoke left-handed pitching and is still doing enough against right-handers to matter. He’s batting anywhere from third to sixth in the Giants’ lineup, so expect the power and RBI to continue to come while he’s posting a 50% hard-hit rate and barreling the ball frequently. He doesn’t have enough batted ball events to qualify, but his 13.6% Brls/PA is elite, bested only by Aaron Judge (16.1%), Giancarlo Stanton (14.9%), and Joc Pederson (14.8%). His current pace slots him ahead of Mike Trout (12.4%), Yordan Alvarez (11.9%), and the aforementioned Christian Walker (11.7%). He’s a legitimate power play heading into Week 10.
Middle Infield
Kyle Farmer (3B, SS – CIN)
The Reds are one of eight teams that have a full seven-game slate in Week 10. No team has eight games, and most teams have six. Only the Cubs and Tigers have five games. Volume should be there for Farmer in Week 10, and the Reds open up with Arizona at GABP, which is a nice spot to be. The D-backs have a team 4.23 ERA, the ninth-worst mark in the majors. The 4.36 FIP tells a worse story and is the fourth-worst mark in the league. Lastly, the 7.18 K/9 is the second-worst mark in the league, with only the Royals striking out fewer opposing hitters (6.98 K/9).
As for Farmer himself, he’s more of a batting average asset than he is a power play, but for the first part of next week, he’s in a great spot in the small park against a bad pitching staff. There’s nothing outstanding in his quality of contact metrics, but his strikeout rate is down to 15.5% and he is 3-for-4 on the basepaths despite his 41st-percentile sprint speed. He’s likely not a long-term asset, but for Week 10 I’m willing to use him to plug a hole. Over the last two weeks, he’s batting .419 with four homers and a stolen base. He’s mostly batting fifth or sixth for the Reds, so he’s a sneaky play for some RBI, perhaps?
Jonathan Schoop (1B, 2B – DET)
His season-long numbers look abysmal, but he’s been hitting well recently and he routinely occupies one of the top three spots in the Detroit lineup. Over the last two weeks, he has a .296 BA with a pair of home runs and a steal. And that production is more in line with his expected statistics, which mirror last year’s marks. Schoop’s .196 BA is bound to improve, as he has a career-worst .219 BABIP despite having a career .296 BABIP and an expected batting average of .253 (in line with last year’s .258 mark). Schoop is also hitting the ball harder more frequently in 2022 than he did in last year’s 22-homer campaign. Lastly, he’s striking out at the lowest rate of his career (18.9%). And on a more anecdotal level, if anything changes to make the ball a bit bouncier, I think Schoop — who typically gets his power from pulling fly balls — is going to be a beneficiary. The only downside for Week 10 is just five games on the docket, but Schoop seems to be percolating right now and he’s worthy of a MI spot in your lineup.
Jon Berti (2B, 3B – MIA)
Berti has been pressed into duty at third base for Miami due to injuries to Joey Wendle and Brian Anderson. There’s not much analysis required here…you know the drill. If you need steals, he’s a worthy play while he’s getting at-bats. He has at least one hit in four straight days (five games), and three steals over that same stretch. I think he’s justifiable in a MI slot for Week 10.
Outfield
Nick Senzel (OF – CIN)
Senzel is an enigma. Historically, he’s a high-contact guy with an athletic profile who posted plenty of high BABIPs in the minors…yet almost none of that has translated to the MLB level. His 2019 rookie season was his best performance by far, and it came with a modest .319 BABIP. Since then, here are Senzel’s BABIPs by season: .204, .284, and .260. The caveat? Small samples. We are talking 23 games, 36 games, and just 28 games so far in 2022. On top of that is a litany of injuries, including a recent stint on the Covid-19 IL. So why kick the tires? Well, there’s still 75th-percentile sprint speed here, and the .254 xBA tells a better story than Senzel’s real-life .208 batting average. Senzel’s contact skills are intact, with just an 8.2% swinging strike rate and a 20.6% strikeout rate on the season. I’m invested in a couple of places, and the volume for Week 10 — plus batting leadoff — has me moving him into the bottom of a few 15-team lineups for Week 10. At least I’ll be early if he starts to break out…right? Or I’m just the dummy still hoping for 2019 production (12 HR, 14 SB in 104 games). You decide!
Garrett Cooper (1B, OF – MIA)
Cooper doesn’t play every day, but when he does play, he routinely bats second for the Marlins, which offsets his lack of consistent playing time. However, with Brian Anderson and Joey Wendle currently on the IL, Jon Berti has been forced into third base duty. Cooper is by far the best DH available for the Fish, and that’s true whether there are injuries happening to the roster or not. The only question here is health, and since Cooper is currently healthy, I think you have to find a way to keep him in your lineups while the Marlins are struggling through injuries. There’s every incentive for Miami to prioritize his bat. On the season, he’s slashing .297/.370/.442, a line that mirrors his production in the previous three seasons. He’s got multi-hit performances in six of his last seven games played, too. The Marlins begin Week 10 with three games against the woeful Washington Nationals. They have a 5.33 team ERA — good for the second-worst mark in the majors. The latter part of the week at Houston looks tough for anyone, but if you’re playing for right now, I think you should make sure Cooper is slotted into your 15-team lineups.
That’s it for me on this fine Sunday morning. Who are you prioritizing this week in your deep-league lineups?
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