More Fantasy Football Analytics to Know in Devy Leagues (2022)

Much like my recent column, “Devy Running Back Metrics to Know,” the goal here is to provide key metrics that will allow for a better and further in-depth look at Devy prospects.

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The Why

With all things, context is always required, especially to understand the extenuating circumstances better.

Take Jameson Williams, for example. His career numbers (our preferred usage) were awful, but his best season numbers were fantastic. Context tells you all the necessary information about that specific profile. It is easy to get bogged down with the copious metrics available, but pinpointing the important ones leads to success.

These metrics are not pulled out of a hat but shown through regression models (by people far more talented than myself) to have a high predictability of success for projecting rookies in the NFL. The crux of analytics is Devy is helping pinpoint the players that have a higher likelihood of being drafted, and beyond that, being drafted with high draft capital. That is what I am to help with here.

Wide Receiver Tell-Tale’s

When evaluating wide receivers, being an early declare with good draft capital is extremely important. However, given that we don’t have that insight into the future in the Devy world, I focus on these metrics below:

Receiving Yards Per Pass Attempt (YPTPA)

Just like with Devy running backs, efficiency matters for receivers. Receiving yards per pass attempt (YPTPA) gauges how efficient a wide receiver is on a per passing play basis. The elite prospects have a career average of 3.00 or high.

However, there are also benchmarks for what I like to see my players exceed. When a receiver breaks out, I want to see a YPTPA above 1.75. It was 1.5, but raising the threshold raises the likelihood of the player being impactful for fantasy. The following year of their breakout, I like to see that YPTPA number climb into the 2.00 region flirting with 2.50. This jump shows me that the player is being heavily involved in the offense and being productive with that opportunity as well.

Ideally, they have a YPTPA of 3.00 or higher in the prospect’s last college season. The crux here is that most of these players who reach that threshold are already rostered, which is not bad. This little tidbit of information gives the manager a leg up to make a trade for that player at a value that is likely much lower than it would be after the NFL draft.

Dominator Rating/Breakout

Breaking out holds little predictive power to the level of fantasy asset the player will be, but it does show they will be a fantasy asset. This is one of the first and most important thresholds to cross for the player. The earlier they have a breakout season against tougher competition translates well for fantasy. Most sites use a 20-percent threshold, and I abide by this as well.

Another threshold I’m looking for is if a player breaches a 30-percent dominator early in their career. Those players are the ones with a higher chance of being special.

Target Share and Receiving Yard Market Share

The above metrics measure efficiency and total offensive production. These two metrics measure actual receiving production.

First and foremost, target share is as it sounds. The threshold that I focus on is getting a target share at or above 25-percent during the breakout season. The following year(s), I like to see percentages grow.

Receiving yards market share is simply the percentage of total receiving yards they were responsible for. The threshold I like seeing here is close to or above 25-percent during their breakout season, and one if not multiple years above 29-percent. My favorite part about this metric is that I can analyze the target share and receiving yard market share together.

Special Teams Contributions

This is less of a metric but more of a signal. Special teams’ contributions are essential. It boils down to, “has this player been used as a returner in college?”

If a player has tallied more than 10 returns for multiple years, that is more than enough for me. This is important because it is a glimpse into the coaching staff recognizing the player’s talent with the ball in his hands and manufacturing more ways for them to be utilized. Easily stated enough, wide receivers who are threats in the open field are more likely to reach a higher fantasy ceiling based on their explosive abilities as a ball carrier.

Last Remarks

Size has been a contentious topic lately in fantasy football. I think it is clear that what we are witnessing a transition with the receiver position. The size requirements for an alpha have shrunk substantially (nearly four inches and 15 pounds). With more wide receivers being drafted at a higher rate in the NFL draft there are a few main lessons for me:

If a wide receiver is productive in college (i.e. Wan’Dale Robinson), I will happily roster that talent on my team because if or when they get the draft capital, it is wheels up.
The second lesson is simple, the more wide receivers drafted in the first three rounds by the NFL, the more valuable Devy wide receivers become. This allows for more unique trading strategies than before.
Players returning for their senior year are largely prolonging their disappointing fantasy career; unless you’ve got a Chris Olave or Devonta Smith-level prospect. Trade that player for a devy pick or player and try again.

If you want to dive deeper into fantasy football, be sure to check out our award-winning slate of Fantasy Football Tools as you navigate your season. From our Start/Sit Assistant – which provides your optimal lineup based on accurate consensus projections – to our Waiver Wire Assistant – which allows you to quickly see which available players will improve your team and by how much – we’ve got you covered this fantasy football season.

Feel free to reach out to me on Twitter @TheFFSandman. If you DM me, I will respond to you as soon as possible.

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