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MLB Trade Value Risers & Fallers: Mookie Betts, Paul Goldschmidt, Ozzie Albies (2022)


 
Each week, FantasyPros publishes a fantasy baseball trade chart. The chart contains player values designed to help you assess the overall weight of both sides of a trade.

The weekly trade charts also keep track of the changes in a player’s value from the previous week. But sometimes, the reasons for a change aren’t obvious. “Why is player X gaining three points in value this week when player Y, who had an even better week, remained the same?”

Good question, reader. There are many answers as to why any given player moves in value from one week to the next. And in this article, we’ll examine some of the biggest risers and fallers each week, and explain the movement.

Here are some of the most notable risers and fallers in the FantasyPros Week 8 Trade Value Chart:

Risers

Mookie Betts (OF – LAD). Week 8 Value: 50. Previous Value: 43. Change: +7

Betts was conservatively ranked in the trade chart for most of the season in accordance with his draft position: a late first-round draft pick with upside. After last year’s down season where he batted a career-worst .264, stole a career-worst 10 bases, and was limited to just 122 games because of a hip injury, the caution seemed warranted.

More than warranted, it looked justified after Betts slashed .230/.352/.378 in April with just three home runs. Perhaps the hip was still bothering him, or perhaps we were seeing signs of actual decline.

Spoiler alert: neither of those things was true. Betts flipped the switch in May, slashing .355/.419/.773 in May entering Tuesday with 12 home runs, 31 runs scored, and 27 RBI. He is on pace to score 169 runs and hit 51 homers, all while batting .304 and throwing in double-digit steals.

Betts was a consensus top-five pick not long ago and he appears to be back to that level. He should be valued as such in all trades.

Dansby Swanson (SS – ATL). Week 8 Value: 15. Previous Value: 11. Change: +4

Similar to Betts, Swanson got off to a terrible start, slashing just .216/.293/.351 in April with one home run and two steals. Back in Week 3, I wrote up how I was dropping Swanson in trade value, but only by a bit. Here’s what I said:

“But there are two reasons Swanson’s value hasn’t dropped even more. The first is he has a decent track record at this point. Three straight years of being a starting-caliber player in mixed leagues with potential 30-homer power and enough speed to swipe double-digit bags each year.

The second is Swanson’s April last year. He slashed .189/.267/.316 with two home runs. His strikeout rate wasn’t quite this bad, but still. Swanson started terribly last year before ultimately being a valuable fantasy shortstop. That doesn’t mean we ignore the slow start. But it does prevent his trade value from dropping like a stone.”

So . . . maybe Swanson just really hates April? Since the calendar turned to May, Swanson is slashing .309/.364/.505 with five home runs and six steals. Other than a bloated strikeout rate, he looks a lot like he did last year.

Expect to see more of the May version of him going forward.

Paul Goldschmidt (1B – STL). Week 8 Value: 31. Previous Value: 28. Change: +3

Goldschmidt has been insane in May, slashing .406/.465/.822 entering Tuesday’s games. He has 11 home runs, 43 RBI, and even three steals on the season.

Goldschmidt is going to be 35 years old before the end of the season so it was reasonable if you wanted to fade him, despite him coming off a fantastic season in 2021. But at this point, there’s been zero decline in his performance from his peak, other than an understandable downturn in steals. Indeed, his .448 xWOBA ranks in the top 1% of MLB.

There’s every reason to buy into what Goldschmidt is doing. And, as such, to move him up the trade chart.

Fallers

Ozzie Albies (2B – ATL). Week 8 Value: 29. Previous Value: 32. Change: -3

Albies is an interesting case. His numbers, from a fantasy perspective, haven’t been terrible. Other than batting average, he has been producing at least some in all categories. But there are certainly issues.

First, even from a surface perspective, he’s on pace for 20 home runs, 89 runs scored, 73 RBI, and 11 steals. Each of those numbers would rival or set his career worst. And he’s batting just .249 entering Tuesday.

The problem for Albies is really that he’s making incredibly poor contact. His 25.5% hard hit rate ranks in the bottom four percent of the league. His barrel rate is 4.5%. Despite pulling the ball more, he’s just not impacting the ball well.

Albies may be the type of player affected by the universal humidors, and he may just not have enough power to overcome that. Even at his worst, he is still valuable, but he should be dropped somewhat in value.

CTAs


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Dan Harris is a featured writer for FantasyPros. For more from Dan, check out his archive or follow him on Twitter @danharris80.

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