Thursday’s main slate is a matinee. It starts at 12:10 pm ET on both DraftKings and FanDuel. However, the slate size is different for the two DFS providers. It’s a six-game slate on DK. Yet, it’s one game larger on FD, including the 3:37 pm ET contest between the Mariners and Athletics.
Thursday's Starting Pitcher Strategy
A longtime ace is the top pitching option tonight. However, a burgeoning hurler is an enticing pivot in GPPs. Finally, a groundball-inducing lefty in a good matchup is the top SP2 in games at DK.
Thursday’s main slate is a matinee. It starts at 12:10 pm ET on both DraftKings and FanDuel. However, the slate size is different for the two DFS providers. It’s a six-game slate on DK. Yet, it’s one game larger on FD, including the 3:37 pm ET contest between the Mariners and Athletics.
Thursday's Starting Pitcher Strategy
A longtime ace is the top pitching option tonight. However, a burgeoning hurler is an enticing pivot in GPPs. Finally, a groundball-inducing lefty in a good matchup is the top SP2 in games at DK.
Cash Game Recommendations:
Clayton Kershaw (LAD) at CIN
Kershaw is having a vintage season. According to FanGraphs, in seven starts totaling 39.0 innings, he's had a 2.08 ERA, 2.63 xERA, 0.85 WHIP, 4.1 BB%, 27.2 K% and 29.5 CSW%. Thankfully, in two starts since returning from the Injured List (IL), Kershaw has had swing-and-miss stuff, as evidenced by his 15.1 SwStr%.
Kershaw should succeed tonight in a good matchup. The Reds are 22nd in wRC+ (95) versus lefties in 2022. In addition, they're in a funk. Over the last 14 days, they've been 28th in wRC+ (79). As a result, Kershaw is the top pitcher across game types tonight.
Justin Steele (CHC) at PIT
Steele is strictly an SP2 option on DK. He can be used in all game types, and he's a good fit in cash games to open up cap space for a few boppers. The 26-year-old has had a 4.27 ERA that's been nothing to write home about, but his 3.38 xERA and 3.99 xFIP have been considerably better.
Steele's 11.2 BB% creates a risk to using him. However, he's had a 50.3 GB% that can help nab him double plays. Still, Steele's matchup is the chief reason for suggesting him. The Pirates are 29th in wRC+ (82) against southpaws.
GPP Recommendations:
Kyle Wright (ATL) vs. SF
Wright is breaking out this season. In 13 starts totaling 79.2 innings, he's spun a 2.94 ERA, 3.13 xFIP, 1.10 WHIP, 27.4 K% and 31.3 CSW%. Additionally, Wright can avoid some of the pitfalls of his hitter-friendly park with his 53.5 GB%.
Unfortunately, he has the most challenging matchup of the touted hurlers. However, the Giants award him strikeout potential. San Francisco's 22.3 K% against righties has been mid-pack, but their 24.7 K% over the last 14 days has been the sixth-highest mark. Thus, the matchup is good for Wright's GPP potential, making him a stellar pivot from Kershaw. Moreover, there's enough value among the hitters to use Kershaw and Wright together on DK.
Top Lineup Stacks
The 2020 season for Zach Plesac looks like an outlier. In the subsequent seasons, he's had a 4.67 ERA in 2021 and a 4.41 ERA in 2022. Further, his ERA estimators have largely been worse. Plesac has also been homer prone and struck out batters at a below-average clip, allowing 1.34 HR/9 with a 15.2 K% this season. Therefore, the Twins are a high-upside stack.
- Road (American Family Field)
- Value: Medium
- Risk: Low
- Game Type: Both
- Game Total/Moneyline: 9.0 Runs/STL -120
It's suboptimal for pitchers to walk more hitters than they strike out. Yet, 29-year-old rookie righty Jason Alexander has had that dubious distinction, walking nine and striking out just eight in 22.1 innings. So, no one should believe the legitimacy of his 2.42 ERA. It's unsustainable. Alexander's 5.33 xERA and 5.31 SIERA are mouthwatering marks to stack the Red Birds against.
- Jose Ramirez is having a great year at the dish. He's also excelled against lefties. Since 2019, he's had a .359 OBP, .258 ISO and 140 wRC+ versus them.
- Byron Buxton has precisely the elite power to use against Plesac. Since last year, he's had a .337 ISO against righties.
- Carlos Correa is great in same-handed matchups, owning a .344 OBP, .212 ISO and 130 wRC+ against righties since last year. And, obviously, he'll be a popular pick after a multi-homer game last night.
- Alex Kirilloff thoroughly dominated Triple-A. He clubbed 10 homers in only 157 plate appearances, adding a .465 OBP. Since being recalled on June 17, he's had breathtaking Statcast data on his batted balls. So, it's a great time to use him before his batted balls result in a salary surge.
- In 97 plate appearances against righties, Nolan Gorman has had six homers, a .340 OBP, .239 ISO and 142 wRC+.
- Juan Yepez has been another productive rookie for the Red Birds. Yepez hasn't matched Gorman's production against righties, but he hasn't been far behind, with a .339 OBP, .220 ISO and 140 wRC+.
Thursday's Hitter Strategy
The Twins and Cardinals are the backbones of tonight's hitter selections. However, Ramirez is also a great pick at the hot corner.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
