The Thursday main slate is small. It includes only five games, starting at 7:05 pm ET. Thus, the picks for tonight’s main slate have been streamlined to three pitchers, two stacks, core studs and values/punts.
Thursday's Starting Pitcher Strategy
There's a surprising amount of top-shelf pitching on a small slate, including an ace who didn't make the cut. However, one frontline starter is the top option on DraftKings and FanDuel against a strikeout-prone lineup. Additionally, a pair of hurlers duking it out round out the picks as the best SP2 in cash games and a pivot in GPPs on DK.
The Thursday main slate is small. It includes only five games, starting at 7:05 pm ET. Thus, the picks for tonight’s main slate have been streamlined to three pitchers, two stacks, core studs and values/punts.
Thursday's Starting Pitcher Strategy
There's a surprising amount of top-shelf pitching on a small slate, including an ace who didn't make the cut. However, one frontline starter is the top option on DraftKings and FanDuel against a strikeout-prone lineup. Additionally, a pair of hurlers duking it out round out the picks as the best SP2 in cash games and a pivot in GPPs on DK.
Cash Game Recommendations:
Luis Severino (NYY) vs. TB
Severino is the top pitcher on tonight's slate. He's having an outstanding return from a few injury-marred seasons. Moreover, he's been on fire.
According to FanGraphs, in his previous five starts spanning 32.1 innings, he's had a 1.67 ERA, 2.58 SIERA, 0.77 WHIP, 4.9 BB%, 32.8 K% and 30.6 CSW%. In addition, four of those turns were quality starts, and he struck out eight in 6.1 innings, allowing just four runs in the outlier start. So, Severino has been a stud.
Tonight, he has a soft matchup. The Rays are 19th in wRC+ (95) against righties, and they've struck out against them at the sixth-highest rate (24.9 K%). Thus, Severino should pile up DK and FD points in bunches.
Shohei Ohtani (LAA) at SEA
Ohtani is having an excellent season on the bump. The reigning AL MVP has had a 3.64 ERA, 3.25 xERA, 1.12 WHIP, 5.8 BB%, 31.7 K% and 31.5 CSW% in 10 starts totaling 54.1 innings. Still, he has had some blemishes along the way.
Regardless, Ohtani has been great more often than not, allowing two runs or fewer in seven of 10 starts, and pitching at least five innings in seven games, too. Finally, the betting info is superb. According to Betting Pros, the Angels are -120 favorites, and the game's total of 7.0 runs indicates it should be a pitcher's duel.
GPP Recommendations:
George Kirby (SEA) vs. LAA
The low total noted in Ohtani's write-up is also a boon for Kirby. The Mariners are only +102 underdogs. Therefore, Kirby isn't a significant longshot to earn the win. Further, he doesn't need to earn a win to pay off his small salary on DK, making him a stellar SP2 in GPPs.
Moreover, the rookie pitcher has flashed, and the Angels are in a funk. In seven starts totaling 37.0 innings, Kirby has had a 3.65 ERA, 3.50 xFIP, 2.6 BB% and 22.7 K%. Further, Kirby has pitched at least five innings in six of seven turns, allowing three runs or less in five starts. As for the Angels' funk, over the last 14 days, they're 26th in wRC+ (75) with an eye-popping 29.7 K%. So, Kirby has an intriguing ceiling that plays well in GPPs thanks to the Angels' struggles lately.
Top Lineup Stacks
Jalen Beeks replaces injured Drew Rasmussen for this start, but the lefty isn't stretched out to handle a legitimate start. Thus, they'll use the bullpen. After the Rays put Rasmussen on the IL, and before they announced Beeks as the starter, Roster Resource at FanGraphs projected lefty Josh Fleming to get the ball. He'd be on regular rest if they needed him. So, it's conceivable he could be called up to work as a bulk reliever. Nevertheless, even if the Rays use other arms in their bullpen, the Yankees should unleash their mighty bats against a makeshift bullpen start.
- Road (Nationals Park)
- Value: Low
- Risk: Low
- Game Type: Both
- Game Total/Moneyline: 9.5 Runs/PHI -180
It's honestly astonishing Patrick Corbin hasn't been designated for assignment. This year, in 13 starts totaling 66.1 innings, he's been beaten like a drum to the tune of a 6.65 ERA and 6.03 xERA. The veteran lefty is completely shot. In addition, righties have killed him. Since last year, Corbin has allowed a .537 SLG and .381 wOBA to them.
- Aaron Judge has been unstoppable. This season, in 264 plate appearances, he's mashed 25 taters with a .384 OBP, .370 ISO and 196 wRC+.
- Rhys Hoskins has a history of clobbering lefties, and he's having a terrific year at the dish. In 268 plate appearances, he's hit 13 dongs with a .336 OBP, .232 ISO and 128 wRC+ this year.
- Like Judge, Giancarlo Stanton is an elite pick, regardless of who the Rays trot out. This season, he's ripped 13 round-trippers with a .346 OBP, .246 ISO and 143 wRC+ in 205 plate appearances.
- Alec Bohm is cheap right-handed exposure to Corbin. Additionally, in his career, he's had a .340 OBP and 116 wRC+ versus lefties.
- Nick Castellanos is a lefty-killer and comically underpriced on FD. Since 2019, he's smashed them for a .369 OBP, .271 ISO and 148 wRC+.
- Luis Garcia is a stellar punt at shortstop on DK. The 22-year-old infielder has carried his hot stick up from the minors with him, posting a .368 OBP and 145 wRC+ in 57 plate appearances for the Nationals.
Thursday's Hitter Strategy
On a five-game slate, it's easy to narrow the offensive focus to the Yankees and Phillies. They are the runaway best offensive picks. So gamers should punt a hitter spot or two to squeeze in the studs from the Yankees and Phillies.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
